413 FXUS64 KLUB 102123 AFDLUB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LUBBOCK TX 323 PM CST THU JAN 10 2013 .SHORT TERM... ...HIGH WINDS MAY DEVELOP FRIDAY AFTERNOON ACROSS THE SOUTH PLAINS... A RELATIVELY QUIET NIGHT WILL BE IN STORE FOR TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA COMPARED TO 24 HOURS AGO. HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASES WE QUICKLY TRANSITION TO SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. THIS WILL SET UP CONDITIONS THAT COULD LEAD TO A VERY WINDY DAY ACROSS THE CAPROCK FRIDAY AFTERNOON...AND BREEZY CONDITIONS OVER THE ROLLING PLAINS. STRONG JET WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION AND TIGHT GRADIENT WILL ALLOW WIND SPEEDS TO JUMP UP INTO TO AROUND 60 KNOTS AS LOW AS 750HPA ACROSS THE REGION. THIS IS ANOTHER INCREASE OVER THE 00Z MODELS BY ABOUT 10-15 KNOTS. AT THE SURFACE...LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL ALSO DEEPEN THROUGH THE DAY HELPING TO INCREASE THE SURFACE PRESSURE GRADIENT AND INCREASING WIND SPEEDS. BIGGEST UNCERTAINTY WILL BE THE AMOUNT OF HIGH CLOUD COVER THAT COULD LIMIT MIXING AND KEEP WIND SPEEDS FROM INCREASING TOO MUCH. POINT SOUNDINGS AND MODEL FIELDS INDICATE THAT HIGH CLOUDS WILL BE AROUND BUT HOW THICK AND WHETHER WE WILL SEE FULL COVERAGE REMAINS UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME. IF FULL MIXING CAN TAKE PLACE...WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE INTO THE 40 TO 50 MPH RANGE WITH GUSTS UP TO 60 MPH POSSIBLE FOR THE NORTHWESTERN SOUTH PLAINS. ALSO UNCERTAIN ON HOW FAR EAST THE HIGH WINDS MAY DEVELOP AS THE MAIN JET CORE REMAINS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN PART OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. WITH THIS IN MIND...WILL GO WITH A HIGH WIND WATCH FOR COUNTIES ALONG AND WEST OF INTERSTATE 27 AND NORTH OF A LUBBOCK TO MORTON LINE. REST OF THE FORECAST AREA MAY NEED A WIND ADVISORY AS WELL. ALTHOUGH ALMOST ALL OF THE AREA RECEIVED BENEFICIAL RAINFALL...VERY FINE SOILS/SAND WILL STILL BE ABLE TO BE LOFTED BY THE STRONG WINDS AND WILL KEEP MENTION OF PATCHY BLOWING DUST IN THE WEATHER GRIDS. JORDAN && .LONG TERM... SATURDAY WILL START OFF A BIT COOLER THAN FRIDAY...AND THINGS ONLY LOOK DOWN HILL FROM THERE...THAT IS WITH TEMPS. A FROPA IS EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL LONG WAVE TROF...AND WITH IT A PUSH OF CP AIR BRINGING TEMPS YET AGAIN BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGE. THE TRAILING END OF THE TROF IS EXPECTED TO PASS OVER THE AREA LATE SATURDAY/EARLY SUNDAY WHICH COULD PROMPT AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR 2...BUT CONFIDENCE IS LOW DUE TO LACK OF MOISTURE AVAILABLE. BEYOND SATURDAY GLOBAL MODELS DIVERGE ON HANDLING THE LONGWAVE TROF EXTENDING FROM CANADA TO THE BAJA PENINSULA. THE GFS KICKS A CLOSED LOW RATHER SWIFTLY SOUTHWARD ACROSS THE PAC COAST BEFORE OPENING THE WAVE AND PUSHING THROUGH THE ENTIRE POS TILTED TROF BY MIDWEEK GIVING US A DRY FROPA. THE ECMWF TENDS TO BE MORE ACTION ORIENTED. THE ECMWF CLOSES THE TROF CREATING A CLOSED LOW THAT TRACKS SOUTH OF THE CWA BY LATE NEXT WEEK. THE 12Z RUN...WHICH HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH THE PAST COUPLE RUNS...BRINGS WRAP AROUND PRECIP OVER WEST TEXAS WHILE KEEPING IN A COLD POOL OF AIR AT THE SURFACE FROM THE PREVIOUS FROPA WHILE PROVIDING 850MB TEMPS AT AROUND -8C...PROVIDING WINTRY PRECIP. AS WITH OUTLOOKS A WEEK OUT...CONFIDENCE IS LOW AT THE TIME BEING...BUT HAS BEEN FAIRLY CONSISTENT AND THE ECMWF HAS BEEN PERFORMING BETTER THAN THE GFS AS OF RECENT WITH THE MID LATITUDE CYCLONES PASSING THROUGH. HAVE KEPT POPS BELOW MENTION WITH NO PRECIP IN THE FORECAST TILL CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER. REGARDLESS OF EITHER MODELS...NEXT WEEK LOOKS TO BE A BIT CHILLY AS WE HEAD INTO THE HEART OF WINTER. ALDRICH && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... FRIONA 33 57 19 37 13 / 0 0 0 10 0 TULIA 35 59 21 39 15 / 10 0 0 10 10 PLAINVIEW 37 60 21 41 16 / 10 0 0 10 10 LEVELLAND 37 60 22 42 16 / 0 0 0 10 10 LUBBOCK 36 60 22 44 17 / 0 0 0 10 10 DENVER CITY 37 60 24 42 16 / 0 0 0 10 10 BROWNFIELD 37 61 24 44 17 / 0 0 0 10 10 CHILDRESS 38 66 30 45 20 / 10 0 0 10 10 SPUR 39 65 28 48 20 / 10 0 0 10 10 ASPERMONT 41 70 32 51 23 / 10 0 0 10 10 && .LUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 14/51