441 FXUS63 KDLH 091624 AAA AFDDLH AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN 1024 AM CST WED JAN 9 2013 .UPDATE...ADJUSTED SHORT TERM TEMP/CLOUD GRIDS TO FIT CURRENT OBS/SATELLITE DATA WHICH INDICATES A WELL MIXED AND CLOUD FILLED BDRY LYR. FEW FLURRIES STILL AROUND PRIMARILY NRN MN PART OF CWA AND ALONG SOUTH SHORE THROUGH MIDDAY. VERY GUSTY WINDS LIKELY INTO EARLY AFTN AS ISALLOBARIC PRESS RISE MAXIMUM SWINGS ACROSS CWA IN NEXT FEW HRS. HI RES NWP SHOWS MOST FAVORED REGIONS FOR STRONGEST WIND GUSTS WILL TRANSLATE ALONG NORTH SHORE THRU 21Z. BUFKIT MOMENTUM TRANSFER SUGGESTS G40KT AT TIMES. WILL ASSESS LATER NWP FOR ANY POTENTIAL HEADLINE FOR ICE/SNOW BEGINNING THURSDAY NIGHT. AVIATION...12Z TAF ISSUANCE... DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WRN ONTARIO LIFTING TO THE ENE THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE DAKOTAS. THESE TWO FEATURES ARE CREATING A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT AND GUSTY W/SW WINDS EARLY THIS MORNING. WILL SEE A FEW MORE HOURS OF LIGHT SNOW AROUND INL AND HIB. OTHERWISE...LOW CLOUDS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE LATE MORNING AND THEN CLEAR OFF THIS AFTERNOON. A VERY STRONG LLJ WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING AND THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH 1500-2000FT WINDS FROM THE SW AROUND 45-55 KTS. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 321 AM CST WED JAN 9 2013/ SHORT TERM...A STRONG AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS MOVING THROUGH NW ONTARIO AT 07Z. LEADING FRONT WAS JUST CLEARING THE EASTERN WI FA WHILE A TROF WAS WORKING INTO WESTERN MN. BEHIND THE TROF...A WIND SHIFT FROM SW TO WNW WAS OCCURRING WITH STRONGER WINDS/GUSTS OVER EASTERN ND WHERE THE TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WAS FOUND. THE BULK OF THE ACCUMULATING SNOW HAD MOVED OUT OF THE FA AT 07Z...BUT SOME -SN/FLURRIES WAS OCCURRING ALONG THE TROF...BUT BELIEVE THE VSBY RESTRICTION IS DUE TO BLSN. THIS AREA OF -SN/FLURRIES/BLSN WILL PROGRESS ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA THROUGH 12Z BEFORE DEPARTING. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE LOWER OVER THE FA DUE TO THE TREES THAN WESTERN MN AND EASTERN ND...BUT STILL QUITE BRISK. AS THE SFC LOW CONTINUES E...A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE FA BRINGING ONE MORE OPPORTUNITY FOR -SN. HOWEVER...NO ACCUMULATION EXPECTED AND WILL HANDLE WITH CHANCE POPS THIS MORNING. HAVE REMOVED POPS FOR THE AFTERNOON AS THE ENTIRE SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED AWAY ALLOWING FOR A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE TO BUILD ACROSS THE FA. A CLEARING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON AS WAA BEGINS. A STRONG WARM FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE FA TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE SYSTEM ORGANIZING IN THE ROCKIES. 850MB TEMPS RISE FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS BELOW ZERO C TO THE SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO BY 12Z THURSDAY. STRONG LLJ OVER THE FA WITH 50KT WINDS JUST ABOVE 1K FT...BUT WITH A LOW LEVEL INVERSION IN PLACE...THESE WINDS WILL NOT MAKE IT TO THE SFC. ON THURSDAY...MODELS AGREE ON NO PCPN IN THE MORNING WITH THE WAA CONTINUING. EXPECT SOME MIXING IN THE MORNING AS SFC WIND SPEED INCREASES...BUT SHOULD REMAIN IN THE 10 TO 20 KT RANGE. IN THE AFTERNOON...ONLY THE ECMWF AND NAM BRING PCPN INTO THE FA. REST OF THE MODELS HAVE THE FA DRY. WILL MOVE THE LIGHT RAIN MENTION TO LATE IN THE AFTERNOON AFTER 21Z. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL BE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WITH MIDDLE TO UPPER 30S COMMON AND A FEW SPOTS REACHING 40F. LONG TERM...THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY... NUMEROUS ITEMS OF CONCERN IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST LATE THIS WEEK AND INTO THE WEEKEND. MAIN CHALLENGES WILL BE THE POTENTIAL FOR ACCUMULATING ICE THUR NIGHT AND FRIDAY...AND THEN THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. AT THIS TIME IT APPEARS MUCH OF THE NORTHLAND WILL BE UNDER THE THREAT OF AT LEAST LIGHT FREEZING RAIN FRI MORNING...BUT THE GREATEST RISK APPEARS TO BE ALONG A CORRIDOR FROM ELY/IRON RANGE SWWD TOWARD THE BRAINERD LAKES AREA. AT THIS TIME...THE TWIN PORTS AREA IS INCLUDED IN THIS POTENTIALLY HAZARDOUS AREA. THERE IS FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT AMONG THE VARIOUS DETERMINISTIC MODELS ALONG WITH RECENT RUNS OF THE SREF...WHICH SEEM TO HANDLE P-TYPE PROBABILITIES DECENTLY...THAT ROUGHLY A TENTH OF AN INCH OR LESS OF ICE ACCUMULATION COULD OCCUR AROUND NE MN...WITH LIGHTER AMTS INTO SECTIONS OF NW WI. WILL LIKELY SEE ENOUGH ICE TO MAKE TRAVEL CONDITIONS DANGEROUS FRIDAY MORNING...AND ADVISORIES WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED. THE MAIN UNCERTAINTY IN THIS EVENT WILL BE THE SFC TEMPS. GUIDANCE IS PUTTING A GOOD AREA OF THE NORTHLAND AROUND 32 DEG F...WHICH IF TURNS OUT TO BE SLIGHTLY WARMER...SAY 34-36...COULD MEAN JUST RAIN. IF THERE IS A LOT OF FLUCTUATION OF TEMPS DURING THIS PERIOD...COULD SEE PRECIP CHANGE BACK AND FORTH...AND NOT ACCUMULATE MUCH AT ALL. WORSE CASE SCENARIO IS THAT WIDESPREAD SFC TEMPS ACROSS THE REGION HOVER AROUND 28-30 THROUGH A 12-18 HR PERIOD...AND ALLOW FOR MORE THAN A TENTH OF AN INCH OF ICE TO BUILD UP. THE NEXT CHALLENGE ROLLS IN FRIDAY NIGHT IN THE FORM OF MUCH COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE CHANCE OF SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATING SNOW MAINLY ACROSS THE FAR NRN COUNTIES OF NE MN. THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH DRAWING UP WARM MOIST AIR AND PRODUCING RAIN/FREEZING RAIN ON FRIDAY WILL COMBINE WITH AN ARCTIC AIR MASS FROM THE NW FRI NIGHT AND WRAP INTO ONE BIG LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE UPPER MIDWEST/WRN GREAT LAKES REGION EARLY SAT. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE RELATIVELY SLOWLY TO THE EAST AND BE CAPABLE OF DROPPING MORE THAN 4 INCHES FROM THE IRON RANGE NORTHWARD THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON. THERE IS STILL SOME UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE PATH AND PRECIP POTENTIAL WITH THIS SYSTEM...SO A VERY CLOSE WATCH WILL NEED TO BE KEPT THROUGH THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS. COULD SEE SOME LIGHT LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS INTO THE END OF THE WEEKEND AROUND NRN WI. OTHERWISE...CONDITIONS DRY OUT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN THROUGH THE EARLY/MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL BEGIN THE PERIOD VERY MILD WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 20S AND 30S ON FRIDAY AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE TEENS AND 20S. BUT QUICKLY CHANGE AS THE COLD AIR MASS MOVES IN WITH FULL FORCE ON SATURDAY. HIGHS SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WILL REMAIN IN THE LOWER TEENS AND SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO...WITH NIGHT TIME LOWS RANGING FROM THE LOWER SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO TO THE LOWER TEENS BELOW ZERO. && .POINT TEMPS/POPS... DLH 30 17 37 30 / 10 0 0 70 INL 27 16 38 27 / 40 0 0 60 BRD 29 21 36 31 / 10 0 20 70 HYR 32 18 37 29 / 10 0 20 80 ASX 34 19 37 27 / 10 0 0 70 && .DLH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. LS...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 10 PM CST THIS EVENING FOR LSZ121- 140>148. && $$ SHORT TERM...CANNON LONG TERM....GROCHOCINSKI