001 
FXUS63 KMPX 062348
AFDMPX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN
548 PM CST SUN JAN 6 2013

.AVIATION... /00Z TAF ISSUANCE/ 

MAIN ISSUES ARE EARLY IN THE TAF PERIOD. FIRST IS A NARROW BAND OF
IFR/LIFR CEILINGS IN CENTRAL MN FROM EAST OF KAXN TO SOUTHWEST OF
KSTC. CONCERN IS A BRIEF PERIOD OF LOW CEILINGS AT KSTC BETWEEN
00Z AND 02Z. SOME FOG IS ALSO POSSIBLE AT THE TWO AFOREMENTIONED
SITES FOR A FEW HOURS THIS EVENING BEFORE SURFACE WINDS INCREASE
ALONG WITH HIGH LEVEL CLOUDINESS. THE OTHER CONCERN IS THE WIND
SHEAR POTENTIAL FOR MOST OF THE TAF SITES DURING THE OVERNIGHT AND
EARLY MORNING HOURS. CONTINUED PREVIOUS WIND SHEAR FORECAST WITH THE
LATEST DATA STILL SHOWING EXCELLENT POTENTIAL. WINDS SPEEDS NEAR 45
KNOTS EXPECTED NEAR 010 AFTER 06Z WITH UP TO 60 KNOTS AT 020.
A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION ON MONDAY. THIS WILL
SHIFT THE SOUTH WINDS TO A WSW DIRECTION. SPEEDS WILL BE IN THE 10
TO 15 KNOT RANGE.  

KMSP...SURFACE WINDS WILL BE ON THE INCREASE TONIGHT AS THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT TIGHTENS ACROSS THE AREA. SPEEDS INCREASING TO
AROUND 12 KNOTS BY DAYBREAK WITH GUSTS NEAR 20 KNOTS IN THE
MORNING. LOW LEVEL WINDS INCREASE DRAMATICALLY AS WELL OVERNIGHT
WITH LOW LEVEL WIND SHEAR INDICATED BETWEEN 07Z AND 13Z. VFR
CONDITIONS OTHERWISE WITH ANY CEILINGS AT OR ABOVE 120.  

/OUTLOOK FOR KMSP/

MON NGT...VFR. SW WINDS 5 TO 10 KTS BECOMING SOUTH.

TUE...VFR EARLY WITH MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE LATE ALONG
      WITH A FEW FLURRIES. SOUTH WINDS 10 TO 20 KTS. 

TUE NGT...MVFR CEILINGS EXPECTED ALONG WITH A FEW FLURRIES.
      SOUTHWEST WINDS 15 TO 20 KTS BECOMING WEST. 

WED...VFR. W WINDS 10 KTS BECOMING S LATE. 

WED NGT...VFR. S WINDS 10 KTS.

&&

.DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 241 PM CST SUN JAN 6 2013/

LATEST 11-3.9 MICRON SATELLITE PRODUCT SHOWING LOW CLOUDS ERODING
OVER WISCONSIN AND LAST VESTIGES OF STRATUS/FOG UNDER SUBSIDENCE
INVERSION OVER WESTERN MINNESOTA IS ALSO DRYING UP. THIS SHOULD BE
GONE BY 00Z OR O. LOTS OF HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING OUT AHEAD OF
NORTHERN STREAM JET STREAM WHICH RESIDES OVER CANADIAN/US BORDER
REGION. THIS WILL SPILL EAST OVERNIGHT AHEAD OF SURGE OF MODIFIED
PACIFIC AIR WHICH MOVES INTO THE AREA OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS.
WINDS EXPECTED TO PICK UP OVER SOUTHWEST MN ALONG THE BUFFALO
RIDGE REGION...WITH PRESSURE GRADIENT INCREASING AS CANADIAN
SURFACE TRACKS EAST. DRY CONDITIONS ANTICIPATED INTO TUESDAY...WITH
MODELS TRENDING TUESDAYS TROUGH A BIT MORE AMPLIFIED. GFS HAS BEEN
THE DEEPEST WITH THIS FEATURE LAST SEVERAL RUNS. WILL TREND MORE
TOWARD OTHER MODELS WHICH CONTINUE TO PAINT THE POSSIBILITY OF
SOME LIGHT SNOW ACROSS OUR NORTHERN FRINGE COUNTIES...INTO TUESDAY
NIGHT. WILL MENTION SOME LOW CHANCE POPS INTO THE NORTHEAST
QUADRANT OF THE AREA FOR THIS. MAIN FORCING ASSOCIATED WITH TROUGH
DOES REMAIN OVER NORTHERN MN...SO ANY SNOW SHOULD BE LIMITED TO
LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH.

THIS SYSTEM EXITS TO THE EAST INTO WEDNESDAY...WITH DRY CONDITIONS
EXPECTED THEN INTO THURSDAY. MODELS CONTINUE TO HAVE PROBLEMS
HANDLING THE SPLIT FLOW REGIME OVER THE CONUS. SOME CONTINUITY FOR 
LIFTING THE SOUTHWEST CUTOFF UPPER LOW NORTHEAST AFFECTING THE
AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON INTO FRIDAY. WILL CONTINUE CHANCE POPS FOR
THIS SYSTEM AS IT LIFTS NORTHEAST TOWARD THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES
INTO FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO WARM SIGNIFICANTLY AHEAD
OF THE THIS FEATURE AS IT PROGRESSES NORTHEAST. SHOULD SEE JUST
RAIN INTO FRIDAY MOST AREAS...PERHAPS CHANGING TO SOME WET SNOW
OVER THE NORTH AND WESTERN AREAS BEFORE ENDING.

TEMPERATURES SHOULD WARM THROUGH THE FREEZING MARK OVER THE ENTIRE CWA
THURSDAY...BUT COOLING FROM THE WEST THEN ON FRIDAY...AS THIS
SYSTEM EXITS THE AREA. MODELS DIVERGE FURTHER ON HANDLING WESTERN
CONUS TROUGH ENERGY INTO THE WEEKEND. STILL DOES LOOK LIKE THERE
WILL BE SOME SNOW DEVELOPING SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY. CANT GO MORE
THAN CHANCE POPS FOR NOW...BECAUSE OF THE OF LARGE SPREAD IN MODEL
MOVEMENT/DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM.

&&

.MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
MN...NONE.
WI...NONE.
&&

$$

RAH/DWE