418 FXUS64 KHGX 030400 AFDHGX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 1000 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013 .DISCUSSION... CURRENT FORECAST HAS RAINS COMING TO AN END THIS EVENING AND OVERNIGHT NEAR THE COAST...AND RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS CONFIRM THIS HAPPENING. THE FORECAST PACKAGE LOOKS GOOD...AND NO UPDATE IS GOING TO BE ISSUED THIS EVENING. 00Z MODELS ARE HINTING AT INCREASING CHANCES OF PORTIONS OF OUR AREA POSSIBLY GETTING SOME KIND OF RAIN/SLEET MIX THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. GOING TO LET THE NEXT SHIFT FULLY EVALUATE THE NEW MODEL DATA AND MAKE ANY NECESSARY CHANGES TO THE FORECAST PACKAGE FOR THIS WINTRY MIX POSSIBILITY. 42 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 550 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013/ DISCUSSION... 00Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. AVIATION... -RA OR -DZ STILL OCCURRING ROUGHLY ALONG AND SOUTHEAST OF THE HWY 59 CORRIDOR. THIS ACTIVITY WILL WANE AND DISSIPATE OVER KLBX AND KGLS THROUGH 03-04Z. HIGHER MOISTURE BEGIN SHUNTED EAST DUE TO DEVELOPING INTERMOUNTAIN WEST TROUGHING...ALONG WITH THE RECENT EASTERN TEXAS JET STREAM TRACKING NORTHEAST INTO THE MID-ATLANTIC... WILL BE THE MAIN REASONS THE COASTAL REGION TEMPORARILY DRIES OUT. DUE TO THERE BEING ENOUGH RESIDUAL MID-LEVEL MOISTURE WITHIN A CONTINUED LOWER LEVEL NE-BELOW-A-SW FLOW PATTERN...A VARIED ALTO STRATUS DECK WILL REMAIN THROUGH THIS PERIOD. AS THE NEXT UPPER LOW EVOLVES OVER NEW MEXICO AND ENTERS WESTERN TEXAS FRIDAY... THERE WILL BE AN INCREASING CHANCE FOR -RA (OR -DZ) AND LOWERING CEILINGS APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. 31 PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 352 PM CST WED JAN 2 2013/ DISCUSSION... SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE NEAR DFW AND AND IN EASTERN COLORADO WITH A COLD FRONT 300 MILES SSE OF GALVESTON. A LARGE SWATH OF UPPER LEVEL PACIFIC MOISTURE CAN BE SEEN ACROSS MEXICO AND OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND UP INTO ARKANSAS. THIS OVERRUNNING MOISTURE PRODUCING CIGS OF 1200 FEET NEAR THE COAST AND SLOPING UP TO AROUND 10-12000FT OVER THE NORTHERN AREAS. ISENTROPIC PLOTS SHOW THE MOIST FLOW OVER THE REGION SLOWLY SWINGING TO THE WSW-W BETWEEN 3 PM AND MIDNIGHT AND DRYING OUT. THE BACK EDGE IS ALREADY INCHING CLOSER TO THE COAST AND THE RAINFALL INTENSITY IS LETTING UP HERE AT THE OFFICE AS IT APPEARS TO BE ON RADAR UP AND DOWN THE COAST. COOL AND CLOUDY WEATHER WILL BE A COMMON OCCURRENCE IN THIS FORECAST PACKAGE WITH A SHORT BREAKS UP THROUGH SUNDAY MORNING. HAVE STAYED CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE TEMPERATURES OR JUST SLIGHTLY LOWER. UPPER LOW OVER THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA WILL BE MOVING EAST AND THIS WILL BE OUR NEXT WEATHER MAKER. HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP THE N-NE LL FLOW IN PLACE BUT WITH THE APPROACH OF THE LOW LIFT WILL BE INCREASING BUT MAY WELL BE LIMITED TO THE NORTHWESTERN 1/2 OF THE REGION ON FRIDAY. RAIN CHANCES SHOULD START TO INCREASE FRIDAY AFTER MIDNIGHT AND THIS WILL LIKELY SPREAD LIGHT RAIN AND POSSIBLE EVEN SLEET ACROSS THE REGION. ACCUMULATIONS OF RAIN SHOULD BE VERY LIGHT AND FOR MOST OF THE AREA ABOVE FREEZING. DO HAVE SOME CONCERN THAT WET-BULBING MAY LOWER TEMPERATURES TO BELOW FREEZING AROUND HOUSTON COUNTY AT 5-7 AM FRIDAY. MAY HAVE SOME ICY BRIDGES BUT THE MODELS HAVEN'T BEEN THAT CONSISTENT WITH THE TIMING OF THE PRECIP AND IT WOULD HAVE TO FALL BEFORE WE GOT TO FREEZING FOR THE ICY ROADS TO DEVELOP MOST LIKELY. THE LOW MOVES INTO OKLAHOMA FRIDAY NIGHT AND RAIN CHANCES SHOULD TAPER OFF. ANOTHER REINFORCING COLD FRONT COMES INTO SETX SUNDAY MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE SETTLING IN ACROSS THE REGION AND THEN MOVING OFF TO THE EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING BACK THE MOISTURE. GFS/ECMWF DIFFERING ON THE TIMING BUT BOTH POINT TO A POTENT UPPER LEVEL STORM SYSTEM TO TRACK EAST ALONG THE US/MEX BORDER EITHER WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY MORNING NEXT WEEK. LOOKS FAVORABLE FOR A WIDESPREAD ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS...POSSIBLY STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. PNS SENT ABOUT THE LAST FEW DAYS OF RAINFALL. 45 AVIATION... DID NOT MAKE A LOT OF CHANGES WITH THE 18Z TAFS...AND THESE TRENDS OF BKN/OVC MID/HIGH CLOUDS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE WITH THE NEXT PACK- AGE. LIGHT PCPN MAY ALSO BE INCLUDED FOR THE SRN HALF OF THE SITES THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HRS GIVEN THE CURRENT RADAR LOOPS THEN A SHORT BREAK OVERNIGHT. AS PER MODELS RETURN OF LIGHT PCPN POSSIBLE TOMORROW/THURS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE/SLUG OF MOISTURE MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. 41 MARINE... WINDS/SEAS DECREASED BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA EARLIER THIS AFTN BUT THIS RESPITE EXPECTED TO BE BRIEF AS A SECONDARY SURGE OF COLD AIR MOVES DOWN INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TOMORROW. OTHERWISE NOT A WHOLE LOT OF CHANGE FROM THE PREVIOUS FCSTS OF PERSISTENT MODERATE/OCCAS- IONALLY STRONG E/NELY WINDS THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AND LIKELY INTO THE WEEKEND. LOW-LEVEL FLOW FCST TO BECOME MORE NORTHERLY FOR THE START OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE PASSAGE OF YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT. AND AS PER THESE MODELS WE COULD POTENTIALLY HAVE SCEC TO NEAR SCA CONDITIONS THROUGH NEXT WEEK. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 31 53 34 48 37 / 10 10 30 40 20 HOUSTON (IAH) 33 54 36 51 39 / 10 10 10 30 20 GALVESTON (GLS) 40 54 42 51 46 / 20 10 20 20 20 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE THURSDAY NIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && $$ DISCUSSION...42 AVIATION/MARINE...31