152 FXUS61 KBGM 030247 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 947 PM EST WED JAN 2 2013 .SYNOPSIS... FLURRIES WILL DIMINISH OVERNIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS BRIEFLY INTO OUR AREA. A WEAK SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW MAINLY TO CENTRAL NEW YORK THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL SEE A MODERATING TREND IN THE AIR OVER THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM THURSDAY MORNING/... 830 PM UPDATE... CLDS HOLDING TUFF ACRS CNTRL NY...AND XPCT THEM TO FOR MUCH OF THE RGN TNGT AS WNW FLOW PERSIST TNGT ABV THE SHALLOW FNTL INVERSION AND SAT PIX SHOWING PLENTY OF CLD UPSTREAM. THERE WILL BE BREAKS ACRS NE/ERN/SE SXNS WHERE COLDEST MINS ARE FCST BUT ALL IN ALL MCLDY TO PERSIST TNGT WITH FLURRIES DIMINISHING. CRNT FCST SHOWS THESE TRENDS WELL WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS TO CRNT NEAR TERM FCST. PREV BLO... 705 PM UPDATE... BACKDOOR CDFNT WORKING INTO THE N CNTRL PORTIONS OF THE CWA. -SHSN ASSCD WITH THIS FNT (AND LAKE ENHANCEMENT) BEGINNING TO FALL APART AS PER SHORT RNG GDNC. ALTHO THE LOW LVL FLOW BCMS NELY BEHIND THIS BNDRY...FLOW IN THE 900-850 LAYER WILL REMAIN WNW TNGT. LOW CLDS WILL ERODE IN SOME SPOTS OVRNGT...MOST LIKELY ACRS NE ZONES...BUT AMT OF CLEARING ELSEWHERE IS DEBATABLE. WILL MONTIOR TRENDS AS EVNG PROGRESSES. OTRW...CRNT FCST IN FINE SHAPE WITH LOWERING CHC POPS FOR -SHSN THIS EVNG. PREV BLO... 300 PM UPDATE... A LAKE EFFECT SPRAY OF MAINLY FLURRIES...WITH MORE STEADY SNOWS ACROSS CORTLAND AND CHENANGO COUNTIES CONTINUES AT THIS HOUR. EXPECT THIS BAND OF SNOW TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH A TAD MORE WHILE WEAKENING SLIGHTLY. MOST WILL SEE NO MORE THAN A COATING OF SNOW THROUGH 0Z...WITH UP TO AN INCH IN THE HILLS OF CORTLAND AND CHENANGO COUNTIES. EARLY TONIGHT THE BAND OF SNOW WILL RETRACT BACK TOWARD THE LAKE AS BOUNDARY LAYER WINDS SLACKEN. EVENTUALLY AFTER 03Z...THE IMPACTS OF RIDING BUILDING IN WILL SEND THE INVERSION CRASHING AND OUR DEPTH OF MOISTURE WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH. WE WILL SEE A TRANSITION TO JUST FLURRIES IN THE FINGER LAKES THROUGH MIDNIGHT...THEN COMPLETELY DRY BY DAYBREAK. MAIN STORY TONIGHT IS THE TEMPS. BEST SHOT AT CLEARING OUT WILL BE OVER THE EAST AND NORTH ROUGHLY ALONG AND NEAR A LINE FROM SYRACUSE TO CORTLAND TO MONTICELLO NORTH/EAST. IN THESE AREAS LOWER SINGLE DIGITS BOTH ABOVE AND BELOW ZERO ARE LIKELY. SOME OF OUR COLDEST AREAS OF ONEIDA COUNTY MAY APPROACH -10 IN A FEW SPOTS. FARTHER WEST MID SINGLE DIGITS TO LOWER TEENS APPEAR MORE LIKELY BASED ON CLOUDS LINGERING LONGER. WITH THE SNOW COVER...TEMPS MAY HAVE TO BE ADJUSTED TONIGHT BASED ON THE CLOUD TREND AS ANY EXTRA AMOUNT OF CLEARING...WILL MOVE THE LOWER SINGLE DIGIT/BELOW ZERO LINE FARTHER WEST TOWARD THE FINGER LAKES. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM THURSDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY/... 300 PM UPDATE... THURSDAY...OUR NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM IS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE NEAR THE ARROWHEAD OF MINNESOTA NOW. THIS SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST- SOUTHEAST TO NEAR THE QUEBEC/ONTARIO BORDER BY 0Z FRIDAY. NOT MUCH SNOW ASSOCIATED WITH THIS SYSTEM NOW BUT AS IT CROSSES THE LAKE...THE ADDED MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE LIGHT SNOW MAINLY IN NY STATE THURSDAY AFTERNOON AFTER 18Z. PURE LAKE EFFECT SNOWS DURING THE DAYLIGHT HOURS ARE EXPECTED TO STAY MAINLY NORTH AND WEST OF CWA AS THE FLOW IS TOO SOUTHWESTERLY. NOT EXPECTING MUCH IN TERMS OF SNOW ACCUMS THROUGH DARK...EXCEPT A LIGHT COATING UP IN NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. THURSDAY NIGHT...BEHIND THE SYSTEM MENTIONED ABOVE WE WILL SEE A BRIEF SHOT OF COLD AIR WITH 850S AROUND -12C ON A NORTHWEST FLOW DURING THE NIGHT. EARLY IN THE EVENING THE FLOW WILL BE AROUND 270/280 AND WILL FAVOR CENTRAL AND NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY. WITH INVERSION HEIGHTS AROUND 8KFT AND A DEEP MOISTURE PROFILE...WE COULD SEE A QUICK BURST OF SNOW WITH 2"-4" IN A SHORT PERIOD OF TIME. AFTER 06Z THE FLOW SETTLES IN AROUND 280 AND WHILE THE INVERSION COMES DOWN A BIT AND THE MOISTURE PROFILES NOT QUITE AS IMPRESSIVE...LAKE SNOWS LIKELY ACROSS CENTRAL/NORTHERN ONEIDA COUNTY AND CLOSE TO NORTHERN ONONDAGA. ANOTHER INCH OR TWO EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME AND THIS MAY BRING SNOW TOTALS INTO THE 2"-5" RANGE ACROSS NORTHERN ONEIDA (ESPECIALLY THE NW HALF)...WITH MUCH LESS JUST SOUTH OF HERE. FOR THE REST OF US MAYBE UP TO AN INCH IN STEUBEN WITH THE FLOW OFF ERIE...OTHERWISE FLURRIES AND A LIGHT COATING EXPECTED. FRIDAY/FRIDAY...CONDITIONS IN THE MORNING FOR LAKE EFFECT HIT A SNAG AS THE INVERSION CONTINUES TO LOWER AND BOTH THE GFS AND NAM SHOWING WAA BY 12Z FRIDAY. LOOK FOR A LESS FAVORABLE PERIOD OF LAKE SNOWS BY MID MORNING INTO EARLY AFTERNOON...WHERE THEY MAY NOT SHUT OFF BUT THE INTENSITY DIMINISHES GREATLY. THE SETUP LOOKS MORE FAVORABLE AGAIN LATE FRIDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE COLUMN MOISTENS A BIT AND THE FLOW IS STILL AROUND 280. FOR NOW WILL PLAY IT CHANCE TO LOW LIKELY POPS FRIDAY EVENING AS THE NAM AND GFS ARE VASTLY DIFFERENT ON THE AMOUNT OF COLD AIR THEY KEEP AROUND THROUGH THE NIGHT. IT DOES LOOK LIKE EVERYTHING WILL COME TO AN END LATE AT NIGHT AS WE SEE LARGE AMOUNTS OF DRYING IN THE MID LEVELS BY 12Z SATURDAY. SATURDAY...QUIET WEATHER EXPECTED WITH A SLIGHT MODERATING TREND IN THE AIR AS HEIGHTS BUILD AHEAD OF OUR NEXT SYSTEM. MANY AREAS WILL BE NEAR 30...WITH ABOVE FREEZING TEMPS EXPECTED IN OUR WARMER LAKE PLAIN AND THE WYOMING VALLEY OF NEPA. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... WV APRCHS SAT NGT INTO SUN AND WILL BRING SOME LGT SNOW SHWRS TO THE AREA. GFS IS A BIT MORE VIGOROUS WITH THE WV...BUT EVEN SO WLD BRING ONLY LGT SNOW...WITH SOME ENHANCEMENT OFF THE LAKES. HIPRES BLDS BRIEFLY THEN SLIDES SWRD LATE MON INTO TUE ALLOWING A MORE ZONAL FLOW IN THE AREA WITH WRMR AIR. WEAK WAA AND WLY FLOW COULD DVLP SOME LGT SNOW SHWRS...ESP OVER THE NRN THIRD OF THE FCST AREA. TUE BRINGS A BROAD WV AND A BRIEF SHOT OF COLDER AIR...AND ONCE AGAIN A CHANCE FOR SNOW SHWRS. IN GNRL...PTRN SHOWS LTL IN THE WAY OF DRAMATIC TEMP ADV OR DVLPG SYSTEMS. MEX AND HPC GUID IN POOR AGREEMENT AS THE ECMWF AND GFS HAVE SIGNIFICANT TIMING DFRNCS. SURROUNDING OFFICES SEEM TO FVR THE COLDER HPC FCST SO IT WAS USED FOR THIS UPDATE. && .AVIATION /03Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHALLOW ARCTIC FRONT...NOW ROUGHLY ALIGNED WITH KITH-KBGM AT 00Z...IS SLOWLY BACKING FROM NE TO SW THROUGH THE AREA ALSO COMPRESSING WHAT REMAINS OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS. THE FRONT WILL STALL OVERNIGHT AND THEN START TO LIFT BACK NORTH THURSDAY. THIS BACK-AND-FORTH WILL CAUSE SUBTLETIES FOR EACH TERMINAL IN TERMS OF WINDS AND CIGS. LIGHT WIND AT THE SURFACE VEERS FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT...THEN SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST DURING THE DAY THURSDAY. MVFR CIGS MAY SCATTER OUT AT TIMES OVERNIGHT AS FLOW BECOMES DRIER FROM THE EAST...ONLY TO COME BACK IN DURING THE DAY SATURDAY AS SOME MOISTENING OCCURS ALONG THE FRONT THAT WILL START TO LIFT NORTH...EVENTUALLY INCLUDING SOME POSSIBLE LIGHT SNOW. SEE TAFS FOR SPECIFICS. OUTLOOK... THU NGT...MVFR CIGS AND VIS POSSIBLE WITH -SN ALONG LIFTING WARM FRONT...MAINLY KSYR-KRME. FRI...MVFR/SOME IFR POSSIBLE AS WEAK COLD FRONT LEADS TO SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS. SAT...VFR. SUN...MVFR/SOME IFR POSSIBLE AS THE NEXT COLD FRONT LEADS TO SCATTERED SNOW SHWRS. MON...VFR. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HEDEN/MDP NEAR TERM...HEDEN SHORT TERM...HEDEN LONG TERM...DGM AVIATION...MDP