665 FXUS61 KOKX 011201 AFDOKX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 701 AM EST TUE JAN 1 2013 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH THE NORTHEAST TODAY...WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN THE WAKE THROUGH MID WEEK. A SERIES OF COLD FRONTS WILL MOVE ACROSS THE AREA INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...ONE EARLY FRIDAY MORNING...AND THEN ANOTHER ON SUNDAY. EACH WILL BE PRECEDED AND FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE. THE STORM TRACK DURING THIS TIME LOOKS TO BE DISPLACED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE TRI-STATE AREA. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... A DRY AND QUIET DAY IN STORE FOR THE AREA TODAY. A COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH BY MIDDAY...THEN REMAINS JUST SOUTH OF THE REGION THROUGH 00Z. FRONT WAS POSITIONED JUST NORTHWEST OF THE CWA AT 11Z...LOOKING TO STILL MOVE THROUGH BEFORE 18Z. A FAIRLY DRY FRONTAL PASSAGE WITH A PERSISTENT WLY TO NWLY FLOW KEEPING A DRY AIRMASS IN PLACE. KEPT THE MENTION OF ISO FLURRIES FOR THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY THROUGH MID MORNING TO ACCOUNT FOR ANY REMNANTS OF THE SNOW SHOWERS CURRENTLY OCCURRING OVER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN NY. A NEARLY ZONAL FLOW SETS UP ALOFT BETWEEN RIDGING TO THE SOUTH AND A BROAD TROUGH TO THE NORTH. A QUICK PASSING VORT MAX TODAY WILL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH PLENTY OF CIRRUS...EVENTUALLY SCATTERING OUT LATE IN THE DAY. FAIRLY CONSISTENT GUIDANCE WITH TEMPERATURES TODAY. TEMPS REMAIN NEAR NORMAL DURING THE DAY...WITH MAX TEMPS BEING REACHED PRIOR TO THE CAA IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONTAL PASSAGE. BLENDED MET/MAV TO GET HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 30S...WITH SOME AREAS ALONG COAST PUSHING INTO THE LOWER 40S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... THE QUIET WEATHER CONTINUES THROUGH WED WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST. A WEAK TROUGH REMAINING OVER NORTHERN NY MAY CLOUDY SKIES OVER MAINLY THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE CWA. WINDS WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH WITH THE PRESSURE GRADIENT BETWEEN THE HIGH AND DEPARTING LOW WEAKENING. THE MAIN CONCERN IN THIS TIME PERIOD WILL BE THE EXTENT OF THE COOLER TEMPERATURES. EXPECTING BELOW NORMAL TEMPS BEGINNING TONIGHT WITH 850MB TEMPS DROPPING DOWN TO AROUND -10 DEGREES CELSIUS. MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES EXPECTED TO PERSIST LONG ENOUGH INTO THE NIGHT TO PREVENT DECENT RADIATIONAL COOLING. TEMPS WILL DROP INTO THE MID TEENS WELL INLAND...AND INTO THE LOWER TO MID 20S ALONG THE COAST. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... FORECAST REMAINS DRY AND WITH TEMPERATURES REBOUNDING FROM SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONABLE LEVELS ON THU...TO NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER FLOW REMAINS PROGRESSIVE WITH SHORT WAVE ENERGY FEEDING INTO THE MEAN TROF RESIDING ACROSS EASTERN CANADA AND THE NE QUARTER OF THE COUNTRY. THERE ARE SOME TIMING ISSUES WITH THESE FEATURES...BUT OVERALL THERE IS GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE SENSIBLE WEATHER. ALTHOUGH FLURRIES CAN NOT BE RULED OUT WITH THE PASSAGE OF UPPER LEVEL SHORT WAVES/SFC COLD FRONTS EARLY FRI MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUN...NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST. INCREASING WINDS WITH THE APPROACH OF AND FOLLOWING FRI MORNINGS COLD FRONT WILL PRODUCE WIND CHILL TEMPS RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS TO THE TEENS...GRADUALLY INCREASING INTO THE 20S FRI AFTERNOON. WINDS ARE FCST TO REMAIN BELOW ADVISORY CRITERIA FOR FRI. STORM TRACK REMAIN SUPPRESSED WELL SOUTH AND EAST OF THE AREA DURING THIS TIME. A PROGRESSIVE FLOW AND LACK OF DEEP PHASING SHOWS NO SIGNS OF ANY SIGNIFICANT STORMS IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. UPPER FLOW BECOMES MORE ZONAL BY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /12Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... LOW PRESSURE TRACKS INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THIS MORNING DRAGGING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE AREA. HIGH PRESSURE THEN BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST INTO TONIGHT. VFR THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. WINDS WILL BE THE ISSUE TODAY...ESPECIALLY AFTER COLD FROPA THIS MORNING. AS OF 11Z...FRONT WAS JUST NORTH OF KSWF. TIMING OF 13Z TO 16Z FROM NW TO SE IS ON TRACK. GUSTY NW WINDS DEVELOP IN ITS WAKE AND CONTINUE THROUGH LATE AFTN. NY METRO ENHANCED AVIATION WEATHER SUPPORT... DETAILED INFORMATION...INCLUDING HOURLY TAF WIND COMPONENT FCSTS CAN BE FOUND AT: HTTP:/WWW.ERH.NOAA.GOV/ZNY/N90 (LOWER CASE) KJFK FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. TIMING OF FROPA MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR...WITH DIRECTIONS GENERALLY REMAINING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC BEHIND IT. PK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 KT. KLGA FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. TIMING OF FROPA MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR...WITH DIRECTIONS GENERALLY REMAINING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC BEHIND IT. PK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 KT. KEWR FCSTER COMMENTS: MODERATE TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN WIND FORECAST. TIMING OF FROPA MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR...WITH DIRECTIONS GENERALLY REMAINING TO THE RIGHT OF 310 MAGNETIC BEHIND IT. PK GUSTS AROUND 25 KT...BUT SHOULD REMAIN BELOW 30 KT. KTEB FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FROPA MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. PK GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KHPN FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FROPA MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. PK GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. KISP FCSTER COMMENTS: TIMING OF FROPA MAY BE +/- 1 HOUR. PK GUSTS MAY BE A FEW KT HIGHER THAN FORECAST. .OUTLOOK FOR 12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY... .WED-THU...VFR. .THU NIGHT-SAT...VFR. GUSTY WINDS POSSIBLE. && .MARINE... SCA CONDITIONS ON THE WATERS THROUGH THE MORNING AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. GUSTY WINDS WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 KT STILL POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT...MAINLY OVER THE EASTERN WATERS. SEAS AND WINDS WILL DIMINISH SLIGHTLY TONIGHT...BECOMING SUB-SCA THROUGH WED. GUSTS UP TO 20 KTS POSSIBLE AGAIN BY WED AFTN. COLD FRONTS ARE FORECAST TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA EARLY FRIDAY MORNING AND AGAIN ON SUNDAY. WINDS AND SEAS WILL LIKELY REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS OF 25 KT AND 5 FT SEAS ACROSS NEAR SHORE ATLANTIC COASTAL WATERS... FOLLOWING THE PASSAGE OF EACH FRONT. && .HYDROLOGY... NO SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION IS FORECAST THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .OKX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... CT...NONE. NY...NONE. NJ...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 AM EST WEDNESDAY FOR ANZ350-353. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 11 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR ANZ355. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ330- 340. && $$ SYNOPSIS...SEARS/DW NEAR TERM...SEARS SHORT TERM...SEARS LONG TERM...DW AVIATION...24 MARINE...SEARS/DW HYDROLOGY...SEARS/DW