115 FXUS61 KBGM 311131 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 631 AM EST MON DEC 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK AND NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT AS A FAST MOVING SYSTEM MOVES IN FROM THE WEST. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS WILL AVERAGE AROUND ONE HALF TO ONE INCH, LOCALLY HIGHER NORTH OF THE NEW YORK THRUWAY. LAKE EFFECT SNOW SHOWERS WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... 630 AM UPDATE... QUICK MASSAGE TO HRLY T/TD VALUES THIS MRNG. HIGH CLDS ARE BEGINNING TO STREAM INTO WRN ZONES ATTM SPREADING IN ON SW MOISTURE RIDING UP TWD THE REGION. THESE CLDS WL THICKEN AS THE DAY WEARS ON, THUS EXPECT MOCLDY CONDS TDA. LK EFFECT SNOW HAS SHIFTED NORTH OF THE CWA THIS MRNG WITH ONLY A FLURRY OR TWO LEFT ACRS THE FAR NORTH. HV KEPT POSSIBILITY OF A FLURRY IN THRU ABOUT 14Z THIS MRNG. PREV DISCO BLO... 3 AM UPDATE... LK EFFECT SNOW AND FLURRIES WL GRADUALLY SHIFT NORTH OUT OF THE CWA LATE THIS MRNG AS WINDS BACK ARND TO THE SOUTHWEST DUE TO WK SFC FNT HEADING EAST INTO CANADA COUPLED WITH SFC RIDGE AXIS BUILDING IN FM THE SOUTH. H5 LOW CURRENTLY DIGGING INTO THE FOUR-CORNERS REGION WL BE OUR NEXT "WX-MAKER" TDA. MOISTURE AT THE UPR LVLS IS STREAMING INTO THE PLAINS STATES AT THIS TIME WITH PCPN BEING REPORTED ACRS TX/OK. AS THIS SYSTEM EJECTS INTO THE CNTRL PLAIN THIS AFTN IT WL INDUCE SFC LOW DVLPMNT TO THE LEE OF THE ROCKIES. SW FLOW ALOFT WL ALLOW MOISTURE TO STREAM UP TWD THE AREA TODAY SERVING TO INCRS CLDS ACRS SRN AND WRN ZONES LATE THIS AFTN. A WK MOISTURE-STARVED FNT AT THE SAME TIME WL DROP OUT OF CANADA AND MAY BE ABLE TO SQUEEZE OUT A VRY LGT SNOW SHOWER OR FLURRIES AT BEST ACRS THE CWA THRU 00Z. VRY LITTLE ACCUMS EXPECTED ACRS THE AREA TDA WITH BEST CHC BEING ACRS NRN ZONES IN ONEIDA CNTY WHERE FNT DROPPING SOUTH WL HELP TO ENHANCE LK MOISTURE TO SQUEEZE OUT BONAFIDE SNOW SHOWERS. OVERALL EXPECTING LESS THAN ONE HALF INCH TDA. 00Z NAM/GFS INDICATING VRY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF ISENTROPIC LIFT ON 280K LYR AT TIME OF LOWEST COND PRESSURE DEFICITS. DECENT UPGLIDE LOOKS TO EXIST ARND 18Z WHERE CPD > 50MB. HOWEVER AS MOISTURE INCREASES TO WHERE CPD < 10MB CWA-WIDE (BY 00Z) UPGLIDE APPEARS TO BE NEUTRAL AND TENDS MORE TWD DOWNGLIDE. HV HARD TIME BELIEVING AREA WL SEE ANYTHING MORE THAN JUST FLURRIES. THEREFORE HV GONE SLGT CHC POPS FOR ALL BUT NRN ZONES CLOSER TO THE LK AND AT THAT, HV ONLY GONE 25-30 POPS. GIVEN SW FLOW AND H9 TEMPS BTWN -3C AND -6C HV GONE WITH MAX TEMPS IN THE LWR 30S. GIVEN THAT CLDY SKIES EXPECTED ALONG WITH SNOW CVR ACRS THE AREA THINK THAT TEMPS NR 40 DEGREES APPEAR TO BE OUT OF REACH AND HV CAPPED AFTN HIGHS AT 35F. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... 3 AM UPDATE... AS FROPA OCCURS LATE MON NGT POPS WL INCRS CWA-WIDE TO LOCHC POPS WITH HIGHEST CHCS ACRS FAVORED LK ZONES IN 280-300 FLOW. SNOW ACCUMS TONIGHT LOOK TO RANGE FM 1/2 TO 1 INCH EXCEPT FOR AMNTS BTWN 1-2 INCHES OVR ONEIDA/MADISON AND ONONDAGA CNTYS. OMEGA BULLSEYE BLO SATURATED SNOW GROWTH LAYER PER BUFKIT SNDG FOR KSYR APPEARS TO FAVOR HIGHEST ACCUMS BTWN 06Z AND 12Z TONIGHT. NW FLOW FLOWING ACRS THE RELATIVELY WARM WATERS OF LK ONTARIO WL SET THE STAGE FOR LES TUE AFTN WITH DELTA T'S ARND 20C LEADING TO CONDITIONAL INSTABILITY WITH LK INDUCED CAPE ARND 500 J/KG. AFTN MAXES WL DIP BLO NORMAL FOR TUESDAY WITH HIGHS IN THE UPR 20S ACRS CNY. SECONDARY FNT IS ON TAP TO DROP THRU THE CWA ON WED THUS HV INCRSD POPS FOR LK EFFECT SNOW DRG THIS TIMEFRAME. APPEARS AS THO FLOW WL BE BEST ALIGNED BTWN 12Z-15Z FM 290-300 DEGREES THUS HV BUMPED POPS TO LKLY DRG THIS TIME ACRS ONEIDA/NRN MADISON AND NRN ONONDAGA CNTYS. AS FLOW SHIFTS TWD A MORE NWRLY DIRECTION AFT 18Z THINK THAT LES WL BCM MORE CELLULAR AND MORE DISORGANIZED AS OMEGA LESSENS DRG THIS TIME. FLOW SHIFTS ARND AS THE SECONDARY TROF DROPS THRU LEADING TO LOW SNOW AMNTS AND THESE AMNTS WL LKLY KEEP SNOW ACCUMS UNDER ADVISORY CRITERIA. SFC RIDGE AXIS PROGGED TO SHUT OFF LK EFFECT WED NGT AS FLOW GETS DISRUPTED. THUS HV DROPPED POPS TO BLO 20 AT PRESENT. HV MADE VRY LITTLE CHGS BYND 00Z THURSDAY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... 315 AM UPDATE... FEW CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST. MODEL TRENDS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE STRONGEST SHOT OF COLD AIR WILL SKIRT OUR FA, AND THEN QUICKLY SLIDE OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. SO WHILE THE LONG TERM FORECAST REMAINS COLDER THAN NORMAL, EXTREME COLD IS NO LONGER ANTICIPATED. PREVIOUS DISC... A FAIRLY QUIET PERIOD AS REGION REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF AN UPPER LEVEL TROF BUT NO SIGNIFICANT WINTER STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL RANGE ABOUT 5 TO 10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL WITH SCATTERED FLURRIES AND SNOW SHOWERS. BEST CHANCE FOR SNOW SHOWERS WILL BE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT AS A WEAK SFC TROF AND NORTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LINGERING STRATOCU MVFR DECK WILL BREAK UP AND LIFT OUT IN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER THE NEXT 2-4 HOURS. SKIES WILL GO PARTLY CLOUDY WITH VFR CONDITIONS IN PLACE. INCREASED MIXING WILL ALLOW 20 KNOT GUSTS TO REACH THE SURFACE BY NOON. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL DIP INTO NORTHERN NY STATE MONDAY EVENING. THIS SYSTEM WILL BRING A WIDESPREAD MVFR CLOUD DECK, AND SCATTERED LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS TO THE NY TERMINALS. OUTLOOK... TUE TO WED NGT...OCCASIONAL MVFR/IFR FOR CNY TERMINALS...IN LAKE-EFFECT SNOW SHWRS. THU THROUGH THU NIGHT...MAINLY VFR. FRIDAY...RESTRICTIONS POSSIBLE AT KRME/KSYR...IN SNOW SHOWERS. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...PVN NEAR TERM...PVN SHORT TERM...PVN LONG TERM...DJP/RRM AVIATION...DJP