823 FXUS62 KMHX 281744 AAA AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1244 PM EST FRI DEC 28 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST TODAY. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE SOUTHWEST TONIGHT AND MOVE ALONG THE COAST SATURDAY. STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST SUNDAY AND EXTEND OVER THE AREA MONDAY. A COLD FRONT WITH LIMITED MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA TUESDAY THEN STALL TO THE SOUTH WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...SHORTWAVE RIDGING OVERHEAD TODAY WITH SFC HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W BRINGING LIGHT WINDS ACROSS THE DISTRICT. WILL CONTINUE TO SEE THICKENING HIGH CLOUDS AS UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE ADVECTS AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM TRACKING ACROSS THE SOUTHERN STATES. TEMPS WARMING THROUGH THE 30S INLAND AND L/M40S ALONG THE COAST. RISING LOW LVL THICKNESSES DURING DAY WITH FILTERED SUNSHINE SUPPORT HIGHS MAINLY AROUND 50...EXCEPT MID TO UPR 40S NRN OBX DUE TO COOL NRLY WINDS. && .SHORT TERM / SATURDAY THROUGH 6 AM SATURDAY/... AS OF 300 AM FRIDAY...MODELS GENERALLY AGREE ON INCREASING MSTR AND ISENT LIFT OVER AREA TONIGHT AS SHRT WV TROF MOVES IN FROM W...LEADING TO WARM FRONTAL DEVELOPMENT OVER SRN COASTAL SECTIONS AS SFC RIDGE MOVES OFFSHORE. SOME MODEL DIFFERENCES ON THREAT OF PCPN BY MORNING...BUT BLEND SUPPORTS LIKELY POPS AFTER 3 AM PER PREVIOUS FCST. INCREASING WAA OVERNIGHT WILL LEAD TO MIN TEMPS DURING EVENING...THEN STEADY OR RISING TEMPS OVERNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... THE LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH CONTINUING THE TREND OF A FAST-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SKIRTING THE NC COAST SATURDAY. EXPECT THAT WIDESPREAD RAIN WILL BE ONGOING SATURDAY MORNING AS GOOD MOISTURE INFLOW AND BEST FORCING SPREADS OVER EASTERN NC. PRECIP WILL BEGIN TO TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON AS SFC LOW MOVES NE OF THE AREA AND MID LEVEL DRYING MOVES IN. THE RELATIVELY SHORT WINDOW FOR PRECIP WILL LIMIT RAINFALL AMOUNTS TO AROUND ONE HALF INCH WITH SOME HIGHER AMOUNTS ALONG THE COAST AND LOWER AMOUNTS INLAND. INSTABILITY WILL BE LACKING SO CONTINUE NO TSTM MENTION ALTHO SOME SCT ACTIVITY CUD DEVELOP OFFSHORE OVER THE WARMER WATERS OF THE GULF STREAM. HIGH TEMPS WILL MAINLY BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S...EXCEPT UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60F ALONG THE COAST. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILDS OVER THE AREA DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK BRINGING MAINLY CLEAR AND COOLER WEATHER CONDITIONS. HIGHS SUNDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S THEN RISING TO A FEW DEGS EITHER SIDE OF 50F ON MONDAY. LOWS SUNDAY NIGHT WILL BE COLD...MAINLY MID TO UPPER 20S WITH 30S AT THE COAST. THE FORECAST FOR THE TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY REMAINS PROBLEMATIC BUT MID RANGE GUIDANCE BEGINNING TO COME INTO A BETTER AGREEMENT WITH A POSSIBLY UNSETTLED MIDWEEK PERIOD. THERE IS BETTER AGREEMENT ON THE TIMING OF A COLD FRONT PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY AND ON HOW TO HANDLE MOISTURE RETURN/PRECIP CHCS AS LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS ON THE FRONT TO THE SOUTH AND EVENTUALLY MOVES NE. HAVE TRIED TO TIME BEST PRECIP CHANCES (STILL CAPPING AT SLIGHT/LOW CHANCES GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY) AHEAD OF FRONTAL PASSAGE LATE TUESDAY TEMPORARILY RAMPING DOWN AS HIGH PRES BUILDS IN FROM THE NORTH ON WED...THEN INCREASING POPS AGAIN WED NIGHT INTO THU WHEN MODELS ARE IN DECENT AGREEMENT FOR AN OVERRUNNING PRECIP EVENT. EXPECT DAYTIME HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN BLO NORMAL ESPECIALLY WED AND THU ON THE COOL SIDE OF THE FRONT. ALTHO NIGHTTIME LOWS WILL BE COOL (MAINLY 30S)...TEMPERATURE PROFILES AT THE LONGER RANGE DO NOT SUPPORT PTYPE ISSUES AS YET. && .AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... AS OF 1230 PM FRI...VFR CONDITIONS WILL DIMINISH TO SUB-VFR CRITERIA EARLY SATURDAY MORNING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL ERODE AS AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE CURRENTLY DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES MOVES INTO THE AREA. CLOUDS WILL LOWER EARLY SATURDAY MORNING AS SHOWERS QUICKLY APPROACH THEREAFTER. EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS BY SUNRISE AS CEILINGS WILL LOWER AOA 1KFT AND VSBYS WILL DROP IN ASSOCIATION WITH THE RAIN. THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS THAT THE CRITERIA COULD LOWER TO IFR SATURDAY MID-MORNING AS CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT DROPS ALLOWING VERY LITTLE LIFT NEEDED TO SATURATE PARCELS NEAR THE SFC. THEREFORE...LOW STRATUS IS THEN FAVORED. GIVEN THE UNCERTAINTY...HAVE KEPT THIS OUT OF THE TAFS FOR NOW. WINDS WILL BE LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE FROM THE SOUTH SATURDAY MORNING. RAIN ACTIVITY SHOULD DIMINISH MID AFTERNOON WITH QUICK DRYING WITHIN THE MID/UPPER LEVELS. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SUB VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED EARLY SATURDAY AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES THRU THE AREA WITH WIDESPREAD PRECIP. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING AS THE LOW MOVES NE SAT AFTN. MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE ANTICIPATED SUNDAY AND MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE INFLUENCES THE WEATHER. PRECIP MAY BREAK OUT AHEAD OF A FRONTAL SYSTEM LATE TUESDAY WITH SOME SUB VFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ATTM. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 10 AM FRIDAY...GOOD BOATING CONDITIONS TODAY WITH LIGHT N/NW FLOW TODAY AOB 10 KT WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING IN FROM THE W. SEAS 3-5 FT N OF OCRACOKE AND 2-3 FT SOUTH. LIGHTEST CONDITIONS WILL OCCUR THIS EVENING AS HIGH CENTER TRAVERSES AREA...THEN INCREASING SE-S WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WITH WARM FRONT MOVING IN FROM S. 00Z WW3 INITIALIZED WELL AND IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH PREVIOUS FCST. LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO SKIRT OR MOVE JUST OFF OF THE COAST SATURDAY PRODUCING MARGINAL SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WINDS/SEAS IN THE PREFRONTAL SW FLOW. SOLID SMALL CRAFT ADVSIORY CONDITIONS MORE LIKELY SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY IN THE STRONG POSTFROTNAL NW FLOW AND MAY SEE SOME GALE FORCE WINDS MAINLY IN GUSTS. SEAS WILL BUILD AS HIGH AS 7-9 FT OFF THE NORTHERN OUTER BANKS ON SUNDAY. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE SUNDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY ON MONDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS OVER THE WATERS. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TOWARD THE SW AHEAD OF THE NEXT COLD FRONT SET TO ARRIVE LATE TUESDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...SK SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...BTC/JME AVIATION...BTC/LEP MARINE...JBM/BTC