864 FXUS64 KFWD 221205 AAA AFDFWD AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 605 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012 .AVIATION... /12Z TAFS/ CONCERNS...GUSTY WINDS TODAY...STRATUS TONIGHT. IN ADVANCE OF A SHORTWAVE SWINGING THROUGH THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES... A LEE SURFACE TROUGH WILL DEEPEN TODAY...INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AT TAF SITES. GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING SUSTAINED SPEEDS MAY APPROACH 20KTS MID AFTERNOON WHEN THE MIXING HEIGHT REACHES 850MB WINDS PROGGED TO BE NEAR 35KTS. GUSTS WILL BE PRIMARILY WITHIN 10KTS OF SUSTAINED SPEEDS...BUT PEAK GUSTS WILL LIKELY TOP 30KTS. DESPITE SOUTH WINDS...THE 40-DEGREE ISODROSOTHERM REMAINS OFFSHORE (AND IN DEEP SOUTH TEXAS). EVEN WITH DEW POINTS CURRENTLY IN THE SINGLE DIGITS AND TEENS...THE VIGOROUS SOUTH WINDS TODAY AND TONIGHT WILL STEADILY INCREASE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. STRATUS WILL SURGE NORTHWARD TONIGHT BENEATH DRY 850MB AIR. AS THE SHORTWAVE RACES PAST EARLY SUNDAY...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER. THE STRATUS DECK WILL BE SHUNTED INTO EAST TEXAS EARLIER THAN CLIMO WOULD SUGGEST SUCH CEILINGS SHOULD ABATE. SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS WILL MAINTAIN VFR CONDITIONS THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY SUNDAY. EXTENDED (BEYOND CURRENT FORECAST)... FROPA AROUND SUNSET SUNDAY. 25 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 405 AM CST SAT DEC 22 2012/ LOW LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION WILL BE ON THE INCREASE ACROSS NORTH TEXAS TODAY AS SURFACE LOW PRESSURE DEEPENS OVER THE HIGH PLAINS. THIS WILL RESULT IN INCREASING SOUTHERLY WINDS AND INCREASING DEW POINTS. ALTHOUGH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE ON THE INCREASE... AFTERNOON RELATIVE HUMIDITIES WILL STILL BE BELOW 30 PERCENT IN MOST LOCATIONS AS HIGH TEMPERATURES WARM INTO THE 60S. THEREFORE...ELEVATED GRASS FIRE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED IN MOST ZONES THIS AFTERNOON. THE INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL RESULT IN A MUCH WARMER NIGHT TONIGHT WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MIDDLE 40S TO THE MIDDLE 50S. SUNDAY WILL BE A WARM DAY FOR MOST LOCATIONS AS THE WINDS TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST AND WEST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. EXPECT AFTERNOON HIGHS SUNDAY FROM THE UPPER 60S TO THE MIDDLE 70S. THE ONLY EXCEPTION WILL BE THE NORTHWEST ZONES WHERE THE COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED IN THE AFTERNOON. THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS ALL OF NORTH TEXAS SUNDAY NIGHT AND BRING DRIER AND COOLER AIR WITH OVERNIGHT LOWS RANGING FROM THE UPPER 20S IN THE NORTHWEST TO THE MIDDLE 40S IN THE SOUTH. MONDAY WILL BE A DAY OF TRANSITION AS UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS TO THE EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH MOVES INTO THE 4 CORNERS REGION. THIS UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM WILL BRING SNOW TO THE ROCKIES DURING THE DAY MONDAY AND INTO FRONT RANGE CHRISTMAS EVE. NORTH TEXAS WILL SEE THE COLD FRONT THAT MOVED THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT LIFT QUICKLY NORTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING SURFACE LOW PRESSURE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS. SOME WARM AIR ADVECTION SHOWERS ARE POSSIBLE CHRISTMAS EVE INTO CHRISTMAS MORNING AS LARGE SCALE LIFT INCREASES IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER TROUGH. MEDIUM RANGE GUIDANCE IS FINALLY STARTING TO AGREE FAIRLY WELL WITH REGARDS TO THE MOVEMENT OF THE UPPER TROUGH AND THE ARRIVAL OF MUCH COLDER AIR INTO NORTH TEXAS. ALTHOUGH THE MODELS DO VARY A BIT ON THE EXACT TRACK OF THE UPPER LOW...THE GENERAL CONSENSUS IS THAT THE CENTER OF THE LOW WILL REMAIN JUST SOUTH OF THE RED RIVER CHRISTMAS DAY. ALL MODELS ARE HOLDING OFF ON THE INTRUSION OF COLD AIR UNTIL THE UPPER TROUGH AXIS PASSES. THIS IS IN LINE WITH THE PREVIOUS FORECAST PACKAGE AND WE HAVE MADE VERY LITTLE MODIFICATIONS TO POPS OR PRECIP TYPE CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON/CHRISTMAS NIGHT. SO IN SUMMARY...EXPECT SHOWERS CHRISTMAS MORNING WITH A MIX OR CHANGE OVER TO LIGHT SNOW GENERALLY NORTH OF INTERSTATE 20 CHRISTMAS AFTERNOON. SOME LINGERING WRAP AROUND LIGHT SNOW IS POSSIBLE IN THE NORTH/NORTHEAST DURING THE EVENING OF THE 25TH BEFORE THE SYSTEM MOVES INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...LITTLE OR NO ACCUMULATIONS OR TRAVEL IMPACTS IN NORTH TEXAS ARE EXPECTED. ALTHOUGH STRONG AND GUSTY WIND IS EXPECTED CHRISTMAS EVENING BEHIND THE COLD FRONT...WE FEEL THAT ANY SNOW THAT FALLS SHOULD BE WET AND BLOWING SNOW SHOULD NOT CREATE ANY MAJOR IMPACTS. THERE IS ONE FLY IN THE OINTMENT THAT HAS OUR ATTENTION AND THAT IS THE POSSIBILITY THAT THE COLD AIR COULD ARRIVE EARLIER THAN EXPECTED AS OFTEN HAPPENS WITH ARCTIC INTRUSIONS SINCE THEY PROPAGATE ON THEIR OWN WEIGHT. THEREFORE....CAREFUL SURFACE ANALYSIS MUST CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. IF THE COLD AIR DOES ARRIVE EARLIER THAN PROGGED IT COULD HAVE SUBSTANTIAL IMPACTS TO THE FORECAST SUCH AS THE POSSIBILITY OF A DEEPER AND SLOWER UPPER LOW...LONGER DURATION OF PRECIPITATION...AND POTENTIAL FOR SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. FOR NOW...WE WILL KEEP THE FORECAST IN LINE WITH MODEL CONSENSUS BUT THIS SYSTEM NEEDS TO BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY. COLDER AND DRY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. HOWEVER...ANOTHER STRONG STORM SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK AND WILL RESULT IN AN INCREASE IN LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS ON FRIDAY. A COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE ACROSS THE REGION NEXT WEEKEND AND BRING ANOTHER SHOT OF COLDER AND DRY AIR. 79 && .FIRE WEATHER... THE GREATEST CONCERN FOR HIGH FIRE DANGER TODAY WILL BE IN AREAS ALONG AND WEST OF A LINE FROM SHERMAN/DENISON...TO DALLAS...TO WACO...TO TEMPLE. IN THESE AREAS...SUSTAINED WIND SPEEDS WILL REACH OR EXCEED 15 MPH WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITY VALUES BETWEEN 15 AND 30 PERCENT. MINIMAL PRECIPITATION HAS FALLEN DURING THE LAST SEVERAL WEEKS... AND VEGETATION IS DORMANT OR OTHERWISE STRESSED. WHEN LOW HUMIDITY COMBINES ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...THIS DRY VEGETATION IS CONDUCIVE TO FIRE INITIATION. WITH GUSTY WINDS...ANY WILDFIRE THAT FORMS CAN RAPIDLY SPREAD AND BECOME DIFFICULT TO CONTAIN. 25 && .CLIMATE... THROUGH DECEMBER 21...2012 IS THE WARMEST ON RECORD YEAR TO DATE. DALLAS/FORT WORTH - WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURES (JAN 1 - DEC 21) 1 70.2 2012* 2 70.0 2006 WARMEST YEAR ON RECORD 3 69.3 2011 4TH WARMEST 69.3 1998 5TH WARMEST 5 69.2 2008 2ND WARMEST 69.2 1999 3RD WARMEST 7 69.0 1933 8 68.7 1954 68.7 1939 68.7 1925 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DALLAS-FT. WORTH, TX 65 51 68 39 57 / 0 5 0 5 5 WACO, TX 68 52 72 42 60 / 0 5 0 5 5 PARIS, TX 63 49 66 38 56 / 0 10 10 10 10 DENTON, TX 67 47 66 34 54 / 0 5 0 5 5 MCKINNEY, TX 64 52 67 37 56 / 0 5 0 5 5 DALLAS, TX 65 53 67 41 57 / 0 5 0 5 5 TERRELL, TX 67 53 67 41 58 / 0 5 5 5 5 CORSICANA, TX 67 54 72 44 60 / 0 5 5 5 5 TEMPLE, TX 68 52 73 44 62 / 0 5 0 5 5 MINERAL WELLS, TX 65 43 69 28 57 / 0 0 0 5 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 25/79