691 FXUS61 KCAR 191819 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 119 PM EST WED DEC 19 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE OVER THE GULF OF MAINE EARLY TODAY WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THIS EVENING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRIEFLY BUILD OVER THE AREA TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. STRONG LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST FRIDAY AND THEN KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 1PM UPDATE... NO MAJOR CHANGES. ACCUMULATIONS REPORTED IN THE LAST FEW HOURS ARE LESS THAN A FEW INCHES AND IN LINE WITH EXPECTATIONS. SNOW WILL CONTINUE WELL INTO THE EVENING BUT ACCUMULATIONS SHOULD BE LIGHT AS A STRONG UPPER JET HAS ARRIVED TO RAPIDLY PUSH THE UPPER LOW AWAY FROM THE GULF OF MAINE AND OUT TO SEA. 10AM UPDATE... FORECAST REMAINS ON TRACK. NO MAJOR CHANGES OTHER THAN UPGRADING SCA TO GALE WARNING. ADDED ADDITIONAL SNOWFALL SUCH THAT MOST ZONES ARE CARRYING 2 TO 5 INCHES FOR TODAY. MOISTURE CONTINUES TO PIVOT AROUND THE SHARP LOW IN THE GULF OF MAINE WITH METSAT SHOWING THE COLDER TOPS IN EASTERN MAINE COLLOCATED WITH A PERSISTENT AREA OF H600 OMEGA. 635 AM UPDATE...WSR-88D IS SHOWING BAND OF HEAVY SNOW PIVOTING WESTWARD OF THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE AREA. LATEST MODEL GUIDANCE IS STILL SHOWING THIS BAND WEAKENING BY LATER THIS MORNING AS IT CONTINUES TO PIVOT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. ALREADY RECEIVING REPORTS OF AROUND A FOOT OF SNOW FROM THE CROSS LAKE AREA. ALSO THE CARIBOU/PRESQUE ISLE AREA HAS ALREADY PICKED UP AROUND 10 INCHES OF SNOW. STILL EXPECTING THE POSSIBILITY OF A ANOTHER FEW INCHES ACROSS THESE AREAS THIS MORNING BEFORE THE SNOW BEGINS TO DIMINISH AS THE LOW PULLS EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. ONLY SIGNIFICANT CHANGE WAS TO UP THE SNOW TOTALS JUST A TAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE AS THE COLDER AIR IS ALREADY CHANGING THE RAIN TO SNOW. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ALL CURRENT WINTER STORM WARNINGS AND ADVISORIES REMAIN IN EFFECT. LOW PRESSURE WILL MOVE EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE TODAY AND PASS SOUTH OF NOVA SCOTIA WHILE HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED ACROSS THE NORTHERN CANADIAN MARITIMES. WSR-88D VAD WIND PROFILE SHOWS A DEEP LAYERED EAST TO SOUTHEAST FLOW ACROSS THE REGION ADVECTING ABUNDANT MOISTURE ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS MORNING. LATEST WSR-88D IMAGERY SHOWS PRECIPITATION BACKING IN FROM NEW BRUNSWICK. THE PRECIPITATION IS MAINLY IN THE FORM OF SNOW ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS AND A RAIN/SNOW MIX ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST. ALONG THE COAST TEMPERATURES ARE WARM ENOUGH FOR RAIN. MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT A BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW WILL AFFECT PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST MAINE INTO EARLY THIS MORNING IN RESPONSE TO INSTABILITY AXIS ASSOCIATED WITH INVERTED SFC TROF AND UPPER LOW MOVING EAST OF THE NEW ENGLAND COAST. EXPECT THIS BAND OF HEAVIER SNOW TO DIMINISH LATER THIS MORNING AS THE SURFACE AND UPPER LOWS MOVE EAST. ACROSS CENTRAL AND INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE ANY RAIN EARLY THIS MORNING WILL GRADUALLY CHANGE TO ALL SNOW AS COLDER AIR ADVECTS IN BEHIND THE DEPARTING LOW. ACROSS INTERIOR DOWNEAST MAINE THERE MAY WE MAY SEE SOME ACCUMULATION BEFORE THE SNOW FINALLY DIMINISHES THIS AFTERNOON. CURRENT THINKING IS THERE COULD BE 1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION ACROSS PORTIONS OF INTERIOR DOWNEAST. HOWEVER SOME GUIDANCE IS SUGGESTING THAT THERE MAY BE SOME LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS...THEREFORE WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR THE NECESSITY OF A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY. AS THE LOW CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST OF THE REGION TONIGHT ANY STEADIER SNOW ILL TAPER TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... WEAK INVERTED SFC TROF XTNDG NW-SE ACROSS OUR FA ERLY THU AND ASSOCIATED W/ THE CURRENT STORM SYSTEM WILL CONT TO DISSIPATE THU AM AS A WEAK RIDGE OF HIGH PRES BRIEFLY BUILDS OVER THE AREA... ANY LINGERING LGT SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS MAINLY ERN AREAS SHOULD QUICKLY DISSIPATE THU AM. THIS RIDGE WILL QUICKLY CREST THE FA LATE THU AND THEN SHIFT E OF THE AREA THU NGT AS ATTENTION WILL THEN TURN TO THE NXT SYSTEM WHICH BY 12Z FRI WILL CONSIST OF DEEP LOW PRES CNTRD OVR SRN ONT BTWN LK HURON AND LK ERIE W/ A WELL DEFINED OCLD FRONT XTNDG EWRD ACROSS WRN NYS THEN SEWRD DOWN ACROSS NERN PA. THIS LOW IS THEN FCST TO TRACK ENEWRD INTO NRN NYS BY 00Z W/ THE OCLN TO XTND EWRD ACROSS NWRN NEW ENGLAND THEN SEWRD ACROSS THE SWRN GULF OF MAINE. THE AIRMASS FOLLOWING THIS CURRENT SYSTEM IS NOT EXCEPTIONALLY COLD SO THE EXPECTED TRACK OF THE UPCOMING STORM SUGGESTS THE THREAT OF HEAVY SNOW WILL BE MINIMAL AS CRITICAL THCKNS VALS SHOULD WARM ENUF EVEN ACROSS THE FAR N BY LATE FRI TO CHANGE ANY SNOW OVER TO SLEET...FZRA OR EVEN JUST RAIN. ATTM...EXPECT PRECIP TO SPREAD NEWRD ACROSS THE FA FRI AM AHEAD OF THE APPROACHING SFC OCLN AND REACH FAR NERN AREAS FRI AFTN. EXPECT MAINLY RAIN S W/ ANY MXD PRECIP CHANGING OVER TO JUST RAIN ACROSS DOWNEAST AREAS FRI AM. ACROSS CENTRAL AREAS...EXPECT A WNTRY MIX TO DVLP LATER FRI AM AND THEN GO OVER TO MAINLY RAIN LATER FRI AFTN WHILE ACROSS THE N EXPECT SOME SNOW FRI AFTN TO GO OVR TO A WNTRY MIX LATER FRI AFTN AND CONT INTO FRI EVE W/ A PSBL CHANGE TO JUST RAIN IF SFC TEMPS ARE ABLE TO RISE TO JUST ABV FREEZING WHICH SEEMS AT LEAST A POSSIBILITY ATTM... MOST LIKELY A JUST A WNTR ADV EVENT WHEN ALL IS SAID AND DONE... OF MORE CONCERN W/ THIS SYSTEM WILL BE THE WNDS... VERY STRONG SERLY 925 MB JET OF 75-80 KT AHEAD OF THE SFC OCLN IS FCST TO NOSE INTO OUR FA LATER FRI AFTN AND THEN EXIT E OF THE AREA FRI EVE. THIS SYSTEM WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SIGNIFICANT WND ISSUES ACROSS THE FA AND LATER SHIFTS WILL NEED TO CONSIDER HGH WND WATCHES. ATTM...W/ NUMEROUS HEADLINES IN PLACE W/ THE CURRENT SYSTEM...TOO ERLY TO CONSIDER THESE WATCHES ATTM. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... STRONG SFC OCLN ROTATES NEWRD ACROSS THE AREA FRI EVE AND LIFTS NE OF THE AREA BY ERLY SAT AM... EXPECT A PROLONGED PD OF PRECIP IN ADVANCE OF THIS FRONT W/ MAINLY RAIN CENTRAL AND S FRI EVE AND A WNTRY MIX ACROSS THE FAR N. VERY STRONG E TO SE WNDS WILL ALSO PRECEDE THIS FRONT AS A POTENT SERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 75-80 KT LIFTS NEWRD ACROSS THE FA FRI EVE. BOTH THE PRECIP AND WNDS SHOULD DIMINISH QUICKLY LATER FRI NGT AS THE OCLN LIFTS NE OF THE AREA AND AN INITIAL SURGE OF SOMEWHAT DRIER/COOLER AIR BEGINS TO OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE W AND SW... MOISTURE SHOULD QUICKLY OVERSPREAD THE AREA AGAIN FROM THE S AND SW ON SAT AS DEEP LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT DRIFTS SLOWLY EWRD...PASSING JUST S OF THE AREA ON SAT THEN LIFTING SLOWLY NE INTO ERN NB ON SUN... THIS WILL ACT TO KEEP THINGS QUITE UNSETTLED THRU THE WEEKEND W/ PDS OF LGT SNOW OR SNOW SHOWERS AS THE PROXIMITY OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT SHOULD KEEP PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN PLAY... SOME GUIDANCE EVEN SUGGEST SOME SIGNIFICANT PRECIP PSBL ACROSS ERN/NERN AREAS ON SUN AS SOME DEEPER MOISTURE FROM THE LOW JUST TO OUR E WRAPS SWWRD ACROSS THESE AREAS AND THIS WILL NEED TO BE WATCHED AS IT COULD RESULT IN SOME MDT SNOWFALL THESE AREAS. THIS SYSTEM FINALLY BEGINS TO WEAKEN ERLY NXT WEEK W/ A RIDGE OF HIGH PRES FROM WRN QUEBEC FCST TO BEGIN BUILDING INTO THE AREA. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: WIDESPREAD IFR AND LCL LIFR CONDITIONS WILL PERSIST TODAY IN LOW CIGS AND SNOW...AND IN RAIN AND SNOW KBGR/KBHB TERMINALS. THE STEADIER SNOW WILL DIMINISH TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND INTO THIS EVENING WITH CONDITIONS IMPROVING TO MVFR AND PROBABLY VFR TOWARD DAYBREAK THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: MVFR TO PSBL LOW VFR CONDS ARE EXPECTED AT THE NRN TERMINALS ON THU W/ MAINLY VFR CONDS ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES. EXPECT MAINLY VFR THU NGT ASSUMING ANY MOISTURE TRAPPED BLO THE SFC RIDGE CAN FINALLY BE MXD OUT AS THE SFC RIDGE CRESTS THE REGION... OTHERWISE...EXPECT ANOTHER ROUND OF POOR FLYING WX TO COMMENCE LATER FRI AS DEEP LOW PRES APPROACHES FROM THE W AND A STRONG SFC OCLD FRONT ROTATES NEWRD TOWARD THE AREA FROM THE SW. EXPECT MVFR TO IFR CONDS TO DVLP ACROSS THE SRN TAF SITES FRI AM AND SPREAD TO THE NRN TAF SITES BY LATER FRI AFTN. THE OCLN WILL LIFT NE OF THE AREA LATER FRI NGT BUT EXPECT CONTD UNSETTLED CONDS W/ CONDS VARYING FROM IFR TO VFR IN OCNL SHSN AS LOW PRES REMAINS JUST E OF THE AREA THRU SUN... && .MARINE... UPDATE... STRONG ENE WINDS NORTH OF A SURFACE TROUGH ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST INTO THIS EVENING AND HAVE ISSUED GALE WARNING. NEAR TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN AT SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT...THUS A SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. SHORT TERM: MARGINAL SCA CONDS PSBL ERLY THU AS WNDS/SEAS FROM THE CURRENT SYSTEM CONT TO SUBSIDE... WNDS/SEAS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BLO SCA LEVELS INTO FRI THEN A STRONG SFC OCLN LIFTING NEWRD TOWARD THE WATERS WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A VERY STRONG SERLY LOW-LEVEL JET OF 75-80 KT. WILL LIKELY NEED TO CONSIDER A STRONG GLW OR PSBLY A STORM WATCH FOR FRI AFTN INTO FRI EVE AFTER THE CURRENT HEADLINES HAVE BEEN DROPPED... && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 4 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR MEZ001- 002. WINTER STORM WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ003>006-010-031. WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR MEZ011- 032. MARINE...GALE WARNING UNTIL 10 PM EST THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...DUDA/MCW SHORT TERM...KHW LONG TERM...KHW AVIATION...DUDA/MCW MARINE...DUDA/MCW/KHW