055 FXUS62 KMHX 160330 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1030 PM EST SAT DEC 15 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OFFSHORE TONIGHT. THE NEXT FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE CAROLINAS MONDAY BEFORE MOVING THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL PASS TO THE SOUTH THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY MORNING. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... AS OF 1030PM SAT...CURRENT OBS AND RADAR TRENDS INDICATE LIGHT STRATIFORM RAIN ACROSS COASTAL NC/SC AS WELL AS THE COASTAL PLAIN. THIS IN RESPONSE TO INC ISENTROPIC LIFT/WAA. NEAR TERM MODEL GUIDANCE IN AGREEMENT ON AREA OF LIFT/LOWERING CIGS SPREADING IN THROUGH THE EVENING. INC POPS JUST A BIT TO LIKELY LATE TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY AM WITH HIGH CHANCE BEFORE THEN. AM THINKING THIS WILL BE A HIGH POP/LOW QPF EVENT WHERE FORCING IS MAINLY ISENTROPICALLY DRIVEN. THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE EASTERN HALF OF THE FA LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SUN AM. COULD BE A NIGHT WHERE WE SEE LOW TEMPS EARLY...THEN RISING WITH INCREASING CLOUD COVER/PRECIP AND SOUTHERLY FLOW. LOWS EXPECTED IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM SUNDAY/... AS OF 240 PM SAT...UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL US WILL SLOWLY APPROACH SUN WITH BL MOISTURE INCREASING IN LOW LEVEL S/SW FLOW. TIMING OF ISENTROPIC SHOWERS LOOKS SOMEWHAT TRICKY SUN...BUT OVERALL THINK BEST CHANCES WILL BE EARLY SUN MORNING ESP ALONG THE COAST...THEN SOME DRYING AND A LULL...WITH CHANCES INCREASING AGAIN LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. DESPITE CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS AROUND EXPECT HIGH TEMPS TO REACH THE MID TO UPPER 60S WITH THE HELP OF SW FLOW. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SAT...THE INITIAL WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE MOVING OFF THE NJ COAST LATE SUNDAY NIGHT WITH LINGERING SHOWERS ACROSS THE AREA...ESPECIALLY OVER THE COASTAL WATERS. AS THE FIRST SFC LOW MOVES WELL OUT TO SEA...SOME SUBSIDENCE BEHIND THAT SYSTEM MAY LEAD TO A BRIEF LULL IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY DURING THE MORNING HOURS MONDAY. YET ANOTHER WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL BE TAKING SHAPE SW OF THE APPALACHIANS EARLY MONDAY AS AN ASSOCIATED TROUGH DIGS AND BECOMES NEGATIVELY TILTED ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS. THE SFC LOW WILL SHIFT TO OUR NORTH AS A SERIES OF SHORT WAVES ROUND THE TROUGH. A CONVEYOR BELT OF INCREASED PWATS WILL DEVELOP AS THE UPPER JET CROSSES THE AREA MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. IT SHOULD BE NOTED THAT THERE IS MARGINAL INSTABILITY (CAPE ~750J/KG AND 30KTS BULK SHEAR) IN PLACE ACROSS THE COAST/WATERS. HENCE...HAVE A MENTION OF THUNDER FOR THESE AREAS. QPF AMOUNTS FOR THE SECOND ROUND OF PRECIPITATION WILL RANGE FROM 0.25-0.5" WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS. THE ASSOCIATED FRONT WILL CROSS TUESDAY USHERING IN DRIER AND SOMEWHAT COOLER TEMPERATURES...ALBEIT NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS AREA. UPPER LEVEL RIDGING AND SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA MID-WEEK. THE SFC HIGH WILL QUICKLY MOVE OFFSHORE THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM APPROACHES FROM THE WEST...ALLOWING TEMPS TO REBOUND. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A LATE WORK-WEEK FROPA ASSOCIATED WITH AN AMPLIFIED UPPER LEVEL PATTERN. THIS WOULD ULTIMATELY SUPPORT COLDER TEMPS NEXT WEEKEND. HOWEVER...THIS FAR OUT...CONFIDENCE IN TIMING/MAGNITUDE OF THIS SYSTEM IS LOW AS THE NEW 12Z GFS/ECMWF IS NOW 6 HOURS FASTER THAN THEIR PREVIOUS SOLUTION. GIVEN THIS...HAVE NOT MADE MUCH ADJUSTMENT FROM MY EARLIER THINKING WITH A 00Z ECMWF/12Z HPC BLEND. MAY NEED TO ADJUST THE FRONT A BIT FASTER...BUT WANT TO SEE MORE TEMPORAL CONTINUITY. && .AVIATION /04Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 645 PM SAT...PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS CURRENTLY ACROSS THE TERMINALS WITH BKN HIGH CLOUDS AND SCT LOW END VFR. EXPECT SUB- VFR CONDITIONS TO DEVELOP TONIGHT AND LIKELY PERSIST INTO SUN...AS PRECIP AND LOW CEILINGS OVERSPREAD THE REGION. HAVE KEPT ALL SITES PREVAILING MVFR FOR NOW...BUT SOME IFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT INTO SUN AND HAVE ADDED TEMPO IFR CIGS FOR EARLY AM SUNDAY. WILL HAVE TO MONITOR FOR MORE WIDESPREAD IFR DEVELOPING AND AMEND TAFS AS NEEDED. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SAT...SUB-VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY AS A LOW SHIFTS TO OUR NORTH AND AN ASSOCIATED FRONT CROSSES THE AREA TUESDAY. SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY WITH AN INCREASE IN PRECIPITATION ACTIVITY AND SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. NWLY FLOW DRIER AIR WILL QUICKLY FILTER INTO THE AREA TUESDAY THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES IN. RETURN FLOW WILL DEVELOP THURSDAY AS ANOTHER SYSTEM IS PROGGED TO IMPACT THE AREA LATER IN THE WORK-WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 245 PM SAT...LATEST OBS SHOW SLOWLY VEERING WINDS...MAINLY NE 5-15KT AND SEAS 2-4FT. WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO SLOWLY VEER TONIGHT AS SFC HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OFFSHORE AND WEAK COASTAL TROUGH DEVELOPS ALONG THE SE COAST...BECOMING SE/S LATE. S/SW WINDS WILL DEVELOP SUN MAINLY 10-15KT WITH GUSTS TO 20KT AND SEAS BUILDING TO 3-5FT. LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 230 PM SAT...SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE MONDAY AS A FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE WEST. PRECIPITATION WILL INCREASE MONDAY LATE AFTERNOON/EVENING AS THE FRONT NEARS. WINDS AHEAD OF THE FRONT ARE AROUND 15-20KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. WINDS WILL FLIRT WITH SCA MONDAY EVENING AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. SCA WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS AROUND THIS TIME AS FREQUENT GUSTS UP TO 25 KTS ARE EXPECTED. WINDS WILL VEER TO THE WEST TUESDAY AFTERNOON...AND EVENTUALLY NE OVERNIGHT TUESDAY/EARLY WEDNESDAY MORNING. THE SURGE AFTER THE FRONT WILL LIKELY USHER SCA ACROSS ALL THE WATERS AS WINDS INCREASE 20-25KTS WITH HIGHER GUSTS. AS THE SFC LOW TO THE NORTH EXITS WELL OFFSHORE AND PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES...EXPECT THE WINDS TO FALL BELOW SCA WEDNESDAY MORNING. ANTICIPATE NWLY FLOW THROUGH EARLY THURSDAY BEFORE THE NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES AND RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS. WINDS QUICKLY INCREASE FROM THE SW EARLY FRIDAY AS A FRONT CROSSES DURING THE DAY. A QUICK SHOT OF PRECIPITATION FRIDAY MORNING IS ALSO ANTICIPATED. STRONG NWLY FLOW BEHIND THE FRONT THROUGH SATURDAY. SEAS AROUND 2-3FT MONDAY WILL INCREASE TO 4-5FT MONDAY NIGHT IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING FROPA/TIGHTENING PRESSURE GRADIENT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE TUESDAY WITH SOME 6FT SETS ACROSS THE OUTER SOUTHERN/CENTRAL WATERS. SEAS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE WEDNESDAY (2-3FT NEAR SHORE/4-5FT OUTER COASTAL WATERS) AS THE PRESSURE GRADIENT RELAXES AND HIGH PRESSURE MOVES OVERHEAD. WAVES WILL LIKELY INCREASE AGAIN AHEAD OF THE NEXT SYSTEM PROGGED TO MOVE THROUGH FRIDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...HSA/CQD NEAR TERM...TL/CQD SHORT TERM...CQD LONG TERM...LEP AVIATION...TL/CQD/LEP MARINE...CQD/LEP