323 
FXUS64 KHGX 142206
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
406 PM CST FRI DEC 14 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A COUPLE OF STORM SYSTEMS WILL BRING RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
SE TX THIS WEEKEND. THE FIRST SYSTEM CURRENTLY OVER THE CA/NV
BORDER WILL MOVE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS TONIGHT AND SATURDAY
WHILE A SECOND WILL PUSH NORTHEASTWARD ACROSS THE PLAINS ON
SUNDAY. THE MODELS HAVE CONTINUED THEIR CONFLICTING SOLUTIONS ON
HOW FAST THE COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE FORECAST AREA...AND ON
WHERE THE FRONT WILL BECOME STATIONARY. BECAUSE THE FLOW ALOFT
WILL BE ALMOST PARALLEL TO THE FRONT...THE THINKING HERE IS THAT
SLOWER MODEL PROBABLY BE THE BETTER MODEL. MODEL PW/S FOR THE
EVENT ARE MIXED WITH THE NAM THE HIGHEST ALONG THE IMMEDIATE
COAST ON SUNDAY...WITH THE PW/S REACHING TO BETWEEN 1.5 AND 1.7
FOR THE EVENT. WITH THAT IN MIND...TWEAKED THE RAIN CHANCES ON
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. FOR SUNDAY...SLOWED DOWN THE FRONTAL
PASSAGE A BIT AND EXPANDED THE 60 PERCENT CHANCE POPS. THE NEXT
CHANCES FOR RAIN WILL ARRIVE AROUND MID WEEK AS ANOTHER STORM
SYSTEM MOVES ACROSS THE STATE.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      62  73  60  73  46 /  30  40  40  60  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              65  77  64  77  53 /  20  30  30  50  20 
GALVESTON (GLS)            65  73  66  73  59 /  20  20  30  60  40 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE 
     FOLLOWING ZONES: MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO 
     THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM 
     FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS 
     FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH 
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...41