642 FXUS61 KCAR 091440 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 940 AM EST SUN DEC 9 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL EXIT INTO THE MARITIMES TODAY WHILE HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FROM CANADA. LOW PRESSURE WILL APPROACH TONIGHT THEN CROSS THE REGION MONDAY.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 9:30 AM UPDATE...INCREASED WINDS AND GUSTS SLIGHTLY FOR THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTERNOON PERIOD. ALSO BROUGHT HIGHS FOR TODAY DOWN BY A COUPLE DEGREES OVER SOUTHERN SECTIONS. FINALLY, BEEFED UP CLOUDS FOR THE LATE MORNING PERIOD. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...ANY PATCHY FOG...AND FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE NORTH...WILL CLEAR AWAY EARLY THIS MORNING AS LOW PRESSURE EXITS IN THE MARITIMES AND GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS FOLLOW BRINGING IN COLDER AIR. HIGH PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY BUILD IN FROM CANADA DURING THE DAY TODAY ALLOWING SKIES TO BECOMING MOSTLY CLEAR BY MIDDAY. HIGH CLOUDS AHEAD OF LOW PRESSURE RAPIDLY APPROACHING FROM THE GREAT LAKES WILL THEN BEGIN TO INCREASE LATE TODAY. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN TONIGHT AHEAD OF THE LOW AND SNOW WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE AREA TOWARD MORNING ON MONDAY. WARMER AIR QUICKLY MOVES NORTH IN THE MID LEVELS WHILE COLD AIR HANGS ON NEAR THE SURFACE FOR A WHILE. THIS WILL CHANGE PRECIPITATION OVER TO SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN THEN PLAIN RAIN FROM SOUTH TO NORTH VERY EARLY MONDAY MORNING. BY DAWN MONDAY MORNING PRECIPITATION SHOULD BE PLAIN RAIN ALONG THE HANCOCK COUNTY COAST WITH SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN FROM BANGOR ON NORTH THROUGH MUCH OF SOUTHERN PENOBSCOT COUNTY. SNOW WILL BE SPREAD ACROSS THE NORTH. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... LOW PRESSURE WILL TRACK NORTHEAST MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THOUGH UNCERTAINTY STILL EXISTS REGARDING WHETHER THE LOW TRACKS NORTHWEST OF MAINE OR ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE. EITHER TRACK WOULD THE ALLOW A WINTRY MIX ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TO TRANSITION TO RAIN THROUGH MONDAY MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PRECIPITATION TYPE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. WITH EITHER TRACK...SNOW WILL TRANSITION TO A WINTRY MIX ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON. A TRACK NORTHWEST OF MAINE COULD ALLOW ENOUGH WARMER AIR TO BE DRAWN NORTHWARD TO ALLOW THE WINTRY MIX TO TRANSITION TO RAIN ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. A TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE WOULD LIMIT THE NORTHWARD EXTENT OF WARMER AIR AND ALLOW THE WINTRY MIX TO PERSIST ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS. STORM TOTAL SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN ACCUMULATIONS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS WILL ALSO BE DEPENDENT ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF THE LOW. THE LOW WILL EXIT NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES MONDAY NIGHT DRAWING A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL DIMINISH MONDAY NIGHT. THE STEADY PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER TO SNOW SHOWERS MONDAY NIGHT WITH COLDER AIR BEING DRAWN ACROSS THE REGION IN THE WAKE OF THE COLD FRONT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD EAST TUESDAY THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT. A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS WILL EXIST ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY...WITH DECREASING CLOUDS DURING THE AFTERNOON. GENERALLY PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS TUESDAY. PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS TUESDAY NIGHT...WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES ACROSS CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST AREAS. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR...TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE...NORMAL LEVELS ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS MONDAY...WITH ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES DOWNEAST. NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE WILL CROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY. LOW PRESSURE TRACKING NORTH OF MAINE THURSDAY COULD BRING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO NORTHERN AREAS...WHILE HIGH PRESSURE PERSISTS DOWNEAST. ANOTHER LOW COULD TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN MAINE LATER FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY BRINGING A CHANCE OF SNOW SHOWERS TO MOSTLY NORTHERN AREAS...WITH PARTLY/MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES DOWNEAST. TEMPERATURES WILL BE AT NEAR NORMAL LEVELS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY...WITH SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES FRIDAY/SATURDAY. && .AVIATION /15Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: IFR CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR AROUND MID MORNING TODAY THEN REMAIN VFR INTO TONIGHT. CONDITIONS WILL LOWER TO MVFR THEN IFR VERY LATE TONIGHT AS SNOW...SLEET AND FREEZING RAIN MOVE IN. SHORT TERM: MVFR/IFR...WITH OCCASIONAL LIFR...CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT WITH CONDITIONS STARTING TO IMPROVE LATE. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS COULD LINGER ACROSS THE NORTH AND MOUNTAINS EARLY TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. OCCASIONAL MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHERN AREAS THURSDAY...WITH VFR CONDITIONS DOWNEAST. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA WILL BE UP FOR NORTHWEST WINDS GUSTING UP TO 25 KT INTO THIS AFTERNOON. WINDS WILL QUICKLY DIMINISH LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS HIGH PRESSURE BRIEFLY CRESTS OVER THE WATERS. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL THEN PICK UP AHEAD OF APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE LATE TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED MONDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY. VISIBILITIES WILL BE REDUCED IN RAIN AND PATCHY FOG MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 3 PM EST THIS AFTERNOON FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...NORCROSS AVIATION...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS MARINE...BLOOMER/FITZSIMMONS/NORCROSS