169 FXUS62 KTAE 061614 AFDTAE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL 1114 AM EST Thu Dec 6 2012 .NEAR TERM [Rest of Today]... Updated at: 1110 am EST The previous forecast remains generally on track, so only minor tweaks were made to the grids this morning. Visible satellite shows an area of greater low cloud cover from ABY-VLD-JAX and north. KJAX radar also indicates scattered light showers over portions of SE GA and far NE FL that were moving to the northwest. The 06.12z GFS and NAM runs both show some gradual isentropic ascent in the 295-300K planes mainly over SW GA through this evening, with condensation pressure deficits below 50mb in the moist easterly flow. This should provide a favorable environment for isolated to scattered light showers and therefore low PoPs have been maintained in those areas. It should be cooler in parts of SW GA today with the increased cloud cover and rain showers. Meanwhile, in SE AL and most of our FL zones, it should be another sunny day with highs in the upper 70s. && .SHORT TERM [Tonight Through Saturday]... For tonight, the shortwave, will continue to weaken as it moves into S FL. Dissipating closed low will move off FL Atlc coast. Under split flow regime, the cold front is likely to drift swwd, wash-out and evolve into a weak surface trough along the Florida east coast into Friday. A small chance of mainly evening rain remains across the NE GA counties. Lows low 50s north to mid-upper 50s coast. The large scale Conus pattern will undergo a slow amplification thru rest of the short term. Closer to home, and in the wake of the trough, modest high pressure will nose down the lee of the Appalachians into south Georgia progressively eroding wedge and loosening local gradient beginning on Thurs. This high will dominate SE region to beyond short term period. This evolution, combined with the primarily zonal flow aloft, will keep the weather generally dry and warm, with temperatures well above normal for early December, especially on Saturday with high in the mid to upper 70s. && .Long Term [Saturday night through next Thursday]... The extended period begins with the local area under the influence of zonal flow aloft at the leading edge of a broad but amplifying trough. By late weekend, shortwave energy will dive south through the Plains, amplifying the trough further. The upper trough will then swing through the southeast Monday through Tuesday before transitioning back to a more zonal pattern for Wednesday. By Thursday, upper flow will amplify once again in response to another shortwave passing over the Gulf Coast states. At the surface, high pressure will remain in control through the weekend with negligible rain chances. The first of the two aforementioned shortwaves will generate an area of low pressure across the Midwest, trailing a cold front south through the Ohio and Mississippi Valley's. This front will pass through the Tri-State area Monday through Tuesday bringing with it a decent chance for showers. High pressure will build in on Tuesday afternoon, ushering in a brief period of dry conditions before the next shortwave brings another weather system our way late next week. && .Aviation... VFR conditions expected through this evening. A few showers will be possible both at KVLD and KABY later this afternoon, however, there should be no ceiling or visibility restrictions associated. Overnight, low ceilings will overspread the region with areas of patchy fog as well. For now, MVFR conditions are expected at all sites but KECP. There is the possibility that a few sites may experience IFR ceilings, especially near KABY. && .MARINE... With relatively weak high pressure forecast to remain in place northeast of the area through the weekend, light easterly to southeasterly flow is forecast to continue. Conditions are expected to remain below headline criteria throughout the forecast period. && .Fire Weather... Relative humidity values will remain above critical levels for the foreseeable future. Thus, Red Flag conditions are not anticipated. && .HYDROLOGY... Rivers are expected to remain low through the period with below average rainfall. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 77 54 75 51 77 / 10 10 10 10 10 Panama City 76 58 73 58 74 / 10 10 10 10 10 Dothan 75 55 72 53 76 / 10 10 10 10 10 Albany 75 52 72 51 77 / 30 10 10 10 10 Valdosta 76 54 74 53 78 / 30 20 10 10 10 Cross City 77 53 76 52 78 / 20 10 10 10 10 Apalachicola 73 57 70 57 72 / 10 10 0 10 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. GA...None. AL...None. GM...None. && $$ NEAR TERM...Lamers SHORT TERM...Block LONG TERM...Harrigan AVIATION...Harrigan MARINE...Block FIRE WEATHER...Harrigan