874 
FXUS64 KHGX 041043
AFDHGX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
443 AM CST TUE DEC 4 2012

.DISCUSSION...
A COLD FRONT AND ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL MOVE ACROSS SE
TX TODAY. THE MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGES OF THE DAY INCLUDE EARLY
MORNING FOG...RAINFALL COVERAGE THROUGHOUT THE DAY...AND STRENGTH
OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS THAT DEVELOP. LIKED THE GFS TIMING OF
EVENTS. THE COLD FRONT...OR ELSE WIND SHIFT...WILL MAKE ITS WAY
INTO THE WESTERN COUNTIES BY AROUND MIDDAY AND THEN TO NEAR THE
COAST BY AROUND 6 PM THIS EVENING.

THE FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATED THAT THE BEST INSTABILITY
WILL BE OVER MOST OF THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN COUNTIES LATER THIS
MORNING THROUGH THE AFTERNOON. THE SOUNDINGS ALSO FORECAST A CAP
OVERHEAD THAT SHOULD BREAK DURING THE LATE MORNING PERIOD. THE
HIGH RESOLUTION MODELS DEVELOP ISOLATED SHOWERS THIS MORNING...
WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING AHEAD OF THE FRONT AS IT
MOVES ACROSS THE FAR NORTHWESTERN SET OF COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON. THESE MODELS PUSH THE AREA OF STORMS INTO THE
INTERSTATE CORRIDOR DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON PERIOD...AND THEN
THE COASTAL COUNTIES DURING THE EARLY EVENING. FORECAST CAPE
VALUES OF AROUND 1000 TO 1500 AND FORECAST CAPE PROFILES INDICATE
ISOLATED STRONGER STORMS MAY PRODUCE STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND MAYBE
SMALL HAIL.

A SLIGHT DRIER AND COOLER AIRMASS WILL THEN FILTER ACROSS SE TX...
WITH ONSHORE WINDS RETURNING GULF MOISTURE BY THURSDAY. THE GFS
AND ECMWF BOTH SHOW A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW OVER SE TX BY THE WEEKEND
AND EARLY NEXT WEEK AS A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPS OVER THE
NORTHERN PLAINS INTO THE BAJA CA. THIS PATTERN SHOULD RETURN AT
LEAST ISOLATED RAIN CHANCES TO SE TX OVER THE WEEKEND.

40

&&

.MARINE...
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT ACCOMPANIED BY  
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS. MODERATE OFFSHORE FLOW IS  
EXPECTED BEHIND THE FRONT ON TUESDAY. WITH A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE
OVERHEAD...WINDS WILL BE LIGHT ON WEDNESDAY. THE HIGH PUSHES EAST
ON THURSDAY WITH WINDS BECOMING BACK ONSHORE ON THURSDAY AND
FRIDAY AS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE PUSHES EAST. 46

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      76  52  72  51  74 /  60  10  10  10  10 
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  56  73  52  75 /  60  20  10  10  10 
GALVESTON (GLS)            77  62  70  61  71 /  60  30  10  10  10 

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...40
AVIATION/MARINE...46