124 FXUS62 KMHX 031126 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 626 AM EST MON DEC 3 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 525 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS OVER THE NORTHERN HALF OF EASTERN NORTH CAROLINA ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE BY THIS AFTERNOON. SOME LIGHT RETURNS SHOWING UP ON RADAR WITH THESE CLOUDS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT THE SUB CLOUD LAYER IS VERY DRY AND SINCE THE PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING FROM HIGH BASED CLOUDS WILL NOT ADD PRECIPITATION TO THE FORECAST. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE CLOUDS HAVE STRONGLY RADIATED NOW THAT WINDS HAVE DECOUPLED AND THIS HAS LED TO THE DEVELOPMENT OF LOCALLY DENSE FOG WITH VISIBILITIES 1/4 OR LESS. BASED ON THE PERSISTENCE OF THIS FOG IN THE OBSERVATIONS WILL ISSUE A DENSE FOG ADVISORY FOR SOUTHERN AREAS UNTIL 14Z. THE FOG SHOULD BURN OFF RAPIDLY AFTER 13Z AND AS THE SHORTWAVE MOVES EAST OF THE AREA RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. RESULTING SUNSHINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 60S IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM TUESDAY/... AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES OFF OF THE COAST. EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND. BASED ON THE EXTENT AND DENSITY OF THE FOG THAT DEVELOPED THIS MORNING COUPLED WITH A CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT TONIGHT I NOW THINK WE WILL SEE WIDESPREAD FOG AND WILL ADD TO THE FORECAST WITH THE 7 AM ISSUANCE. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL GO WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLEST MOS IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY WARM ON TUE AND INTO WED FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY... THEN BACK TO WARMER THAN AVG TEMPS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES INC INTO TUESDAY...AND GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN A FEW MID 70S ACROSS E NC. THIS HOLDS SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS IN THE 1365-1370 M RANGE. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON TUE. MODELS CONVERGING ON A WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON WED...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. POTENT LOW LEVEL FGEN ANALYZED OFF THE ECMWF...COMBINED WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD WILL LEAD TO A GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIP WED AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE SCATTERED. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ATTM...AS SREF MEAN IS A BIT LESS ROBUST WITH QPF AND FORCING. THINKING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...THOUGH IF ECMWF SOLN VERIFIES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THAT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST WED EVENING...AND NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS. MAX T'S FOR THUR GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. LOWS THUR NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS IN AROUND FREEZING FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HEIGHTS RISE BY FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BROAD RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING AN INC IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AND HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESP NEAR THE COAST AS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE MAY WRAP IN SHOWERS OFF ATLANTIC. HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING BACK UP NEAR 70 FOR THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS. && .AVIATION /11Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOG AND LIFR TO IFR CONDITIONS EARLY THIS MORNING AND AGAIN LATE TONIGHT. WITH EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT SEE NO REASON WHY WIDESPREAD DENSE FOG WOULD NOT DEVELOP AGAIN. FOG SHOULD BE MORE WIDESPREAD TONIGHT AS THICK MID CLOUDS INHIBITED THE DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE NORTHERN AREAS EARLY THIS MORNING AND SKIES ARE NOW EXPECTED TO BE MOSTLY CLEAR TONIGHT. THE SURFACE CONDENSATION PRESSURE DEFICIT FORECAST OFF OF THE ETA-12 SUPPORTS THIS THINKING AS DOES THE LATEST AVIATION GUIDANCE. SANDWICHED BETWEEN THE FOG EPISODES WILL BE VFR CONDITIONS FROM LATE MORNING THROUGH LATE EVENING. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO E NC BY WED AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VSBYS AND CIGS DROP TO OCNL MVFR IN SHOWERS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY WED EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND SKIES CLEARING. FRIDAY WILL BRING SW WINDS BACK TO THE AREA AND AN INC IN CLOUDS...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 625 AM MONDAY...NO CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST THINKING. HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A FRONT APPROACHING WELL TO NW WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES TO NORTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. THE WAVE WATCH AND SWAN WAVE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEAS WITH 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST TO EAST SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 8 TO 9 SECONDS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INC TUE NIGHT IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WINDS REACH UP TO 15 KT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING QUICKLY TO NORTH. SCA WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THUR MORNING ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD WAVES OF ABOVE 6 FEET. COULD SEE 25 KT WINDS ON THE SOUNDS FOR A TIME AS WELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SO SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 THROUGHOUT. THE NORTH WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...DENSE FOG ADVISORY UNTIL 9 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR NCZ090>095- 098. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JME/TL MARINE...JME/TL