900 FXUS62 KMHX 030838 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 338 AM EST MON DEC 3 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM THE EAST THROUGH TUESDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTHWEST WEDNESDAY...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER FRONTAL SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY APPROACH NEXT WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND WEST OVER NORTH CAROLINA TODAY. WIDESPREAD MID/HIGH CLOUDS ASSOCIATED WITH A WEAK SHORT WAVE PASSING THROUGH WILL BEGIN TO DECREASE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE SYSTEM MOVES EAST OF THE AREA AND RIDGING ALOFT BUILDS OVER THE REGION. RESULTING SUNSHINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW AND RISING LOW LEVEL THICKNESS WILL PRODUCE WELL ABOVE NORMAL WARMTH WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER 70S INLAND AND MID 60S IMMEDIATE COAST. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE AREA TONIGHT WHILE THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS PASSES OFF OF THE COAST. EXPECTING GOOD RADIATIONAL COOLING TO OCCUR AS SKIES BECOME MOSTLY CLEAR AND WINDS DECOUPLE INLAND. COULD SEE WIDESPREAD FOG BUT CONFIDENCE TOO LOW AT THIS TIME TO INCLUDE IN THE FORECAST BUT WILL CONTINUE TO MONITOR. AS HAS BEEN THE TREND THE PAST SEVERAL NIGHTS WILL GO WITH OR SLIGHTLY BELOW THE COOLEST MOS IN MOST AREAS DUE TO THE EXPECTED RADIATIONAL COOLING. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL START OUT VERY WARM ON TUE AND INTO WED FOLLOWED BY A BRIEF COOL DOWN ON THURSDAY... THEN BACK TO WARMER THAN AVG TEMPS FRI INTO THE WEEKEND. THICKNESSES INC INTO TUESDAY...AND GUIDANCE STILL INDICATING MAX TEMPS REACHING INTO THE LOWER TO EVEN A FEW MID 70S ACROSS E NC. THIS HOLDS SUPPORT FROM LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALS IN THE 1365-1370 M RANGE. SKIES WILL BE PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY ON TUE. MODELS CONVERGING ON A WED AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING WEDNESDAY FRONTAL PASSAGE ACROSS THE AREA. SHARP SHORT WAVE TROUGH WILL PASS TO THE NORTH ON WED...DRAGGING A TRAILING COLD FRONT THROUGH THE REGION. POTENT LOW LEVEL FGEN ANALYZED OFF THE ECMWF...COMBINED WITH SOME GULF MOISTURE BEING TRANSPORTED NORTHEASTWARD WILL LEAD TO A GOOD COVERAGE OF PRECIP WED AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY INTO EARLY EVENING. HAVE DECIDED TO RAISE POPS TO HIGH CHANCE SCATTERED. HAVE NOT INTRODUCED LIKELY POPS ATTM...AS SREF MEAN IS A BIT LESS ROBUST WITH QPF AND FORCING. THINKING THAT PRECIP AMOUNTS WILL GENERALLY RANGE FROM A TENTH TO TWO TENTHS OF AN INCH...THOUGH IF ECMWF SOLN VERIFIES COULD BE HIGHER THAN THAT. FRONT WILL CLEAR THE CRYSTAL COAST WED EVENING...AND NORTH WINDS WILL USHER IN COOLER TEMPS. MAX T'S FOR THUR GENERALLY IN THE MIDDLE 50S. LOWS THUR NIGHT UNDER MAINLY CLEAR SKIES/CALM WINDS IN AROUND FREEZING FOR AREAS AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. COOL DOWN WILL BE SHORT LIVED...AS HEIGHTS RISE BY FRIDAY WITH ZONAL FLOW ALOFT. BROAD RETURN FLOW IN THE LOW LEVELS WILL BRING AN INC IN CLOUDS FRIDAY AND HIGHS REACHING BACK INTO THE 60S. MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT CHANCE FOR RAIN SHOWERS...ESP NEAR THE COAST AS SOME ATLANTIC MOISTURE MAY WRAP IN SHOWERS OFF ATLANTIC. HIGHS POTENTIALLY REACHING BACK UP NEAR 70 FOR THE WEEKEND DEPENDING ON HOW MUCH CLOUD COVER THERE IS. && .AVIATION /07Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1235 AM MONDAY...MAIN CONCERN CONTINUES TO BE FOG AND THE POTENTIAL FOR IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. LIMITING FACTORS ARE ADVANCING MID/HIGH LEVEL CLOUD DECK ASSOCIATED WITH THE PASSAGE OF A MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE AND A SLIGHTLY TIGHTER PRESSURE GRADIENT WHICH WILL HINDER DECOUPLING ESPECIALLY AT THE NORTHERN TAF SITES PGV AND ISO. THE UPS FOG TOOL POINTS TO OAJ AND EWN AS THE BEST FOG THREATS AND THE FOG STABILITY INDEX SUPPORTS DENSE FOG. THE BUFKIT FOG PROGRAM INDICATES A BETTER POTENTIAL FOR STRATUS THAN FOG DUE TO LOWER MRI NUMBERS. THINK THE CLOUDS AND LIGHT BREEZE WILL LIMIT THE FOG POTENTIAL AT PGV/ISO AND POSSIBLY EWN SO WILL LIMIT RESTRICTIONS THERE TO MVFR VISIBILITIES. WILL INDICATE A POTENTIAL FOR IFR VISIBILITIES AT OAJ WHICH WILL HAVE THE BEST POTENTIAL FOR DECOUPLING AND THE STRONGEST RADIATIONAL COOLING. CONDITIONS WILL BE IMPROVING TO VFR AGAIN AFTER SUNRISE AS THE FOG/STRATUS LIFTS AND MIXES OUT. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...VFR THROUGH MOST OF THE PERIOD. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH EVENING. SCATTERED TO WIDESPREAD SHOWERS WILL MOVE INTO E NC BY WED AFTERNOON JUST AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. VSBYS AND CIGS DROP TO OCNL MVFR IN SHOWERS. FRONT WILL PASS THROUGH BY WED EVENING WITH WINDS BECOMING NORTHERLY AND SKIES CLEARING. FRIDAY WILL BRING SW WINDS BACK TO THE AREA AND AN INC IN CLOUDS...THOUGH SHOULD REMAIN VFR. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 230 AM MONDAY...HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXTEND OVER THE NORTH CAROLINA WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT PRODUCING BENIGN BOATING CONDITIONS THROUGH THE PERIOD. A SLIGHT TIGHTENING OF PRESSURE GRADIENT EARLY THIS MORNING WITH HIGH PRESSURE TO THE SOUTH AND A FRONT APPROACHING WELL TO NW WILL RESULT IN SW WINDS INCREASING TO 10-15 KTS OVER THE NORTHERN WATERS EARLY THEN THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT AS THE FRONT STALLS AND DISSIPATES TO NORTH. WINDS ARE FORECAST TO DIMINISH TO 10 KT OR LESS. THE WAVE WATCH AND SWAN WAVE MODELS ARE GENERALLY IN LINE WITH PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR SEAS WITH 2 TO 3 FT TODAY AND 2 TO 4 FT TONIGHT MAINLY IN SOUTHEAST TO EAST SWELL WITH PERIODS OF 8 TO 9 SECONDS. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THRU FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 AM MON...SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL INC TUE NIGHT IN BETWEEN HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST AND AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. WINDS REACH UP TO 15 KT. THE FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE COASTAL ZONES THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON WITH WINDS VEERING QUICKLY TO NORTH. SCA WINDS AND SEAS LOOK TO IMPACT THE WATERS WED NIGHT INTO THUR MORNING ON GUSTY NORTH WINDS AND SHORT PERIOD WAVES OF ABOVE 6 FEET. COULD SEE 25 KT WINDS ON THE SOUNDS FOR A TIME AS WELL. PRESSURE GRADIENT LOOSENS QUITE A BIT THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY SO SEAS WILL SUBSIDE TO 2-4 THROUGHOUT. THE NORTH WINDS THURSDAY INTO THURSDAY NIGHT WILL GRADUALLY VEER TO SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST DURING THE DAY FRIDAY. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM/JME NEAR TERM...JME SHORT TERM...JME LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...JME/TL MARINE...JME/TL