380 FXUS61 KCAR 291500 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1000 AM EST THU NOV 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE WILL QUICKLY SLIDE ACROSS THE STATE TONIGHT FOLLOWED BY ARCTIC HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 950 AM UPDATE... STREAMERS SETTING UP AS CAA HITTING ATTM AND WIND DIRECTION AT 320 DEGREES WHICH IS COULD FOR THE ACTIVITY TO MOVE ACROSS NORTHERN AND WESTERN AREAS. HELD ON TO SNOW SHOWERS(40%) A WHILE LONGER THIS MORNING. LATEST VISIBLE SATL IMAGERY SHOWED THE CLOUD BAND MOVING ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL AROOSTOOK COUNTY W/ANOTHER SMALLER BAND AROUND THE MT. KATAHDIN RANGE. LATEST CANADIAN GEM AND NAM12 SHOW SOME CLEARING THROUGH EARLY AFTERNOON AND THEN CLOUDS MOVE BACK IN AHEAD OF THE NEXT FEATURE LATER THIS AFTERNOON. MAX TEMPERATURES TODAY WERE BUMPED BACK A CATEGORY W/UPPER TEENS AND LOWER 20S ACROSS THE NORTH AND WEST AND MID/UPPER 20S CENTRAL AND DOWNEAST HOLDING AROUND 30. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... ADDITIONAL ACCUMULATION ACROSS THE NORTH WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS. COLDER AIR WILL MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND WINDS WILL PICK UP OUT OF THE WEST. AS SUCH, IT WILL BE A VERY CHILLY-FEELING DAY WITH HIGHS RANGING FROM AROUND 20 IN THE SAINT JOHN VALLEY TO THE LOWER TO MID 30S DOWNEAST. ONCE THE FRONT EXITS THE FORECAST AREA, THE FOCUS BECOMES A FAST-MOVING CLIPPER SYSTEM WHICH IS PROGGED TO MOVE OUT OF QUEBEC LATE THIS AFTERNOON, SLIP ACROSS MAINE THIS EVENING, AND EXIT TO NOVA SCOTIA AFTER MIDNIGHT TONIGHT. FORECAST MODELS CONTINUE TO INDICATE THAT THIS SYSTEM WILL ALLOW A DECENT BAND OF SNOW TO DEVELOP ALONG THE LOW'S PATH, STRETCHING WEST TO EAST ACROSS CENTRAL MAINE. TEMPERATURE PROFILES SHOW LAPSE RATES REACHING 7 C/KM OR MORE, RESULTING IN PLENTY OF LIFT. AS SUCH, THE SNOW COULD COME DOWN AT A FAIRLY DECENT RATE AT TIMES, ESPECIALLY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FAST PROGRESSION OF THE SYSTEM, DON'T EXPECT A LOT IN THE WAY OF TOTAL ACCUMULATION. ATTM, THE HIGHEST TOTALS LOOK TO LIE IN AN AN 80-100 MILE WIDE BAND STRETCHING EAST-WEST ACROSS THE STATE, CENTERED ON A MOOSEHEAD LAKE TO MILLINOCKET TO DANFORTH LINE. IN THIS AREA, TOTALS UP TO 2 INCHES ARE EXPECTED, WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER TERRAIN. NORTH AND SOUTH OF THIS NARROW BAND, SNOWFALL THROUGH TONIGHT WILL BE AN INCH OR LESS, WITH LITTLE TO NO ACCUMULATION NORTH OF CARIBOU AND SOUTH OF BANGOR. OF COURSE, THESE SNOWFALL TOTALS ARE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON EXACTLY WHERE THE LOW TRACKS AND THE MAIN SNOW BAND SETS UP. MUCH COLDER AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN THE CLIPPER'S WAKE, SO OVERNIGHT LOWS WILL BE VERY COLD, RANGING FROM THE SINGLE DIGITS NORTH TO THE TEENS DOWNEAST. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... MODELS CONT TO SHOW THE COLDEST AIR MASS OF THE SEASON FOR FRI WITH HI TEMPS REACHING MID TO UPPER TEENS ACROSS NRN PTNS OF THE REGION AND ONLY LOWER TO MID 20S E CNTRL AND DOWNEAST WITH BRISK NW WINDS. WITH THE CNTR OF COLD CAN HI PRES MOVG RIGHT ACROSS THE FA LATE FRI NGT INTO SAT MORN...CONDITIONS FOR STRONG RADIATIONAL COOLING WILL BE IN PLACE FRI NGT...WHERE COLDEST NW VLYS WILL APCH LOWS OF -10 DEG C. THE ARCTIC REGIME WILL BE SHORT LIVED HOWEVER...WITH TEMPS SLOWLY RECOVERING ON SAT AS WARM ADVCN HI AND MID CLDNSS SPREADS W TO E OVR THE FA AS THE SFC HI MOVES E INTO THE MARITIMES. THE 00Z OPRNL RUN OF THE GFS IS NOW AGREEING WITH THE ECMWF IN SHOWING TWO INITIAL DISTINCT AREAS OF LGT PRECIP...A FIRST AREA THAT MOVES S OF THE FA SAT AND A SECOND THAT MSLY MOVES N OF THE FA SAT NGT. CANNOT RULE OUT LGT PRECIP OVR PARTS OF THE REGION SAT NGT...BUT WITH THE BEST LIFT NOW INDICATED TO BE MSLY N OF THE REGION...WE COULD NOT GO ABV CHC POPS THIS PD ATTM. DESPITE STRONG MID/LOW LVL WARM ADVCN ANY PRECIP THAT FALLS WILL INITIALLY FALL AS LGT SN AFT ERLY TO MID EVE LOW TEMPS. ALTHOUGH PRECIP TYPE PROGS SHOW VERY LITTLE IF ANY SLEET OR FZG RN WITH A TRANSITION BEGINNING TO MOVE NWRD ACROSS DOWNEAST AND E CNTRL PTNS OF THE REGION LATE SAT NGT AS SFC TEMPS RISE...WE FEEL THAT VERY COLD GROUND FROM THE COLD SPELL FRI INTO SAT MAY RESULT IN ANY LGT RN THAT INITIALLY FALLS AFT THE CHGOVR FROM ANY LGT SN TO FREEZE FOR THE FIRST COUPLE OF HRS OR SO... BEFORE THE GROUND TEMPS WARM ABV FZG. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... ANY TRANSITIONAL LGT PRECIP SHOULD MOVE NWRD INTO NE AND N CNTRL PTNS OF THE FA SUN MORN...WITH ANY REMAINING FZG RN ENDING ACROSS THE FAR NW SUN AFTN WITH THE ONSET OF HEAVIER PRECIP WITH THE MAIN S/WV ARRIVING FROM QB LATE IN THE DAY AND SUN EVE AS STRONG LLVL WARM ADVCN CONTS. MOST PRECIP WITH THE MAIN S/WV WILL FALL MSLY AS ALL RN OVR EVEN FAR NRN PTNS OF THE FA SUN NGT AS THE SFC LOW TRACKS JUST N OF THE GASPE PENINSULA. WE WEIGHT HIGHEST POPS AT 70 PERCENT WITH THIS EVEN ATTM. MOST PRECIP SHOULD MOVE E OF THE REGION BY MON MORN WITH ONLY WEAK LLVL COLD ADVCN BEHIND THIS SYSTEM WITH A RELATIVELY MILD AIR MASS. MON NGT SHOULD BE FAIR...BUT RETURN SW LLVL FLOW ALREADY COMMENCES BY TUE MORN ACROSS THE FA ACCORDING TO MOST LONG RANGE MODELS AS THE NEXT S/WV FROM CNTRL CAN APCHS. THIS IS WHERE MODELS VARY WITH THE TMG (ALTHOUGH THIS TMG DIFFERENCE IS LESS THAN PRIOR MODEL RUNS) OF THE COLD FRONT RN SHWR BAND AS LOW PRES TRACKS INTO FAR NRN QB...WITH THE GFS MOST PROGRESSIVE BRINGING SHWRS THRU LATE TUE INTO THE OVRNGT AND THE ECMWF LATER TUE NGT INTO WED MORN. A SIGNIFICANTLY MORE COLDER AIR MASS WILL FOLLOW FOR WED WITH CLDY SKIES AND POSSIBLE FLURRIES OR SN SHWRS...BUT NOT AS COLD AS THE AIRMASS SLATED FOR THIS FRI INTO FRI NGT ATTM. && .AVIATION /15Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: NORTHERN TERMINALS WILL BE MVFR WITH PERIODS OF IFR POSSIBLE IN LIGHT SNOW THROUGH ABOUT 14Z, THEN CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO VFR. MEANWHILE KBGR AND KBHB WILL REMAIN VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING. A QUICK-MOVING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING MORE SNOW TO THE AREA LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND ESPECIALLY THIS EVENING. MVFR CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS AFTER 00Z, THOUGH THEY ARE NOT TOO LIKELY AT KFVE, KCAR, AND KBHB. PERIODS OF IFR ARE POSSIBLE 00Z-06Z AT KHUL AND KBGR, AND PERHAPS KPQI. AFTER 06Z, EXPECT ALL SITES TO RETURN TO VFR, THOUGH SCATTERED CLOUDS AROUND 2500 FT ARE POSSIBLE AT KFVE AND KCAR. SHORT TO LONG TERM: VFR XPCTD FRI AND SAT...WITH NRN MOST TAF SITES POSSIBLY EXPERIENCING BRIEF MVFR AT TMS FRI MORN WITH COLD ADVCN THIN BKN-OVC SC. NEXT CHC OF MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS FOR ALL TAF SITES WILL OCCUR LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN NGT WITH LGT SN CHGNG TO RN. CONDITIONS SHOULD IMPROVE BACK TO VFR ALL SITES ON MON. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: THE SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY REMAINS HAS BEEN EXTENDED THROUGH FRIDAY. WINDS WILL QUICKLY INCREASE THIS MORNING AFTER A COLD FRONT MOVES ACROSS THE WATERS. WAVES WILL ALSO BUILD TODAY AND ESPECIALLY TONIGHT AS LOW PRESSURE MOVES NORTH AND EVENTUALLY EAST OF THE GULF OF MAINE. SHORT TO LONG TERM: SCA WINDS AND WVS WILL LIKELY CONT THRU MOST OF FRI WITH NW WINDS BEFORE SUBSIDING BLO THRESHOLDS BY FRI EVE. NO HDLNS XPCTD THEN THRU SAT EVE...WITH WINDS AND WVS AGAIN INCREASING TO SCA RANGE LATE SAT NGT THRU SUN WITH SRLY WIND FETCH. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 4 PM EST FRIDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT