840 
FXHW60 PHFO 290650
AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
830 PM HST WED NOV 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
TRADE WINDS WILL WEAKEN AND TURN SLOWLY OUT OF THE SOUTHEAST 
BY THURSDAY AS A SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES NEAR THE STATE. 
LAND AND SEA BREEZES WILL DEVELOP...LEADING TO ISOLATED AFTERNOON 
CLOUDS AND SHOWERS OVER INTERIOR SECTIONS. A FRONT WILL APPROACH 
THE ISLANDS FROM THE WEST...WITH INCREASING CHANCE OF SHOWERS FOR 
KAUAI AND OAHU LATE THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
TRADE WINDS ARE DECREASING ACROSS THE ISLANDS THIS EVENING AS A 
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVES CLOSER TO THE STATE. WINDS WILL 
TURN LIGHT SOUTH TO SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT ACROSS THE STATE. LAND 
BREEZES WILL DEVELOP OVER THE ISLANDS UNDER THE LIGHT WIND FLOW. 
THERE ARE SOME HIGH CLOUDS FROM THE ACTIVE CONVECTION FAR SOUTHWEST 
OF THE STATE STREAMING ACROSS THE WESTERN ISLANDS THIS EVENING. 
EXPECT THESE HIGH CLOUDS TO CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE AREA AT LEAST 
THROUGH FRIDAY. MAINLY FAIR WEATHER FOR THE STATE WILL CONTINUE 
THROUGH THIS EVENING INTO EARLY FRIDAY MORNING OVER THE ISLANDS AS 
AIR MASS IN THE ISLAND VICINITY REMAINS STABLE AND DRY.

LIGHT WIND REGIME WILL PREVAIL ACROSS THE STATE THROUGH 
FRIDAY...ALLOWING SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP BY THE AFTERNOON. SHALLOW 
LOW CLOUDS WITH ISOLATED LIGHT SHOWERS MAY DEVELOP UNDER THE SEA 
BREEZES FOR THE LEEWARD AND INTERIOR ZONES UNDER A STABLE AND DRY 
AIR MASS.

UNSETTLED WEATHER WILL RETURN TO THE STATE OVER THE 
WEEKEND...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN ISLANDS AS A SERIES OF SURFACE 
LOW DEEPENS NORTHWEST OF THE STATE. AN ASSOCIATED SURFACE FRONT WILL 
ADVANCE NEAR KAUAI FROM THE WEST EARLY NEXT WEEK AND STALL. A 
CONVERGENCE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE STATE...WITH 
INCREASE CHANCE OF RAIN OVER THE WESTERN ISLANDS. IN 
FACT...UNSETTLED WEATHER MAY LINGER OVER THE ISLANDS...ESPECIALLY 
THE WESTERN ONES THROUGHOUT NEXT WEEK AS A SURFACE TROUGH PERSISTS 
JUST WEST OF THE ISLANDS...WHILE A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL JETS WILL 
DEVELOP NEAR ISLANDS...LEADING TO THE DESTABILIZATION OF THE 
ATMOSPHERE IN THE ISLAND VICINITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR MODERATE TO 
HEAVY DOWNPOURS WILL INCREASE BEGINNING SATURDAY FOR THE ISLANDS... 
ESPECIALLY KAUAI...AND WILL PERSIST THROUGH NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...
THE STABLE ATMOSPHERE AND WEAKENING TRADE WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO 
PRODUCE VFR AND LGT/VAR WINDS FOR THE TERMINALS THIS EVENING. THE 
LIGHT SE FLOW WILL FOCUS A FEW-SCT CLD AND BRIEF -SHRA ALONG 
WINDWARD AND SE FACING TERRAIN...MAINLY ON MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. 

&&

.MARINE...
WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGH REST 
OF THE WEEK.

THE NEXT N SWELL WILL FILL IN THU NIGHT AND PEAK FRIDAY...BRINGING 
ADVISORY LEVELS SURF TO NORTH FACING SHORES. IT WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE 
OVER THE WEEKEND...THOUGH A SERIES OF CONSISTENT MODERATE NW SWELLS 
IS EXPECTED NEXT WEEK. 

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.

&&

$$

AVIATION...HOUSTON
DISCUSSION/MARINE...HUI