741 FXUS61 KRLX 190756 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 256 AM EST MON NOV 19 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE MAINTAINS DRY WEATHER INTO THE NEW WORK WEEK FROM ITS POSITION OVER NEW ENGLAND. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE AGAIN. NEXT COLD FRONT FRIDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... PERSISTENT SFC HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE NEW ENGLAND STATES WITH LIGHT EAST/SOUTHEAST FLOW WILL CONTINUE OVER THE FORECAST AREA TODAY AND TONIGHT. ALL IN ALL A PLEASANT DAY TODAY IS IN STORE. SOME CLOUDS ASSOC WITH AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE OFF THE SE ATLANTIC COAST WILL BRUSH THE FAR EASTERN ZONES THIS MORNING BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO DISSIPATE LATER IN THE AFTERNOON/EVE AS THIS FEATURE CONTINUES AWAY FROM AREA. H925 TEMPS ABOUT A DEGREE OR SO WARMER VERSUS SUNDAY/S TEMPS WITH SOME MORE HIGH CLOUDS LATER TODAY SHOULD YIELD MAX TEMPS VERY SIMILAR TO SUNDAY/S...GENERALLY IN THE LOW 60S LOWLANDS WITH UPPER 40S/LOW 50S HIGH TERRAIN. DID HOLD MAXES DOWN A FEW DEGREES ACROSS HIGH COUNTRY WITH PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED CLOUDS IN PLACE FOR A TIME. INHERITED OVERNIGHT MINS TUE MORNING STILL LOOK GOOD...CONTINUING ON THE HIGHER SIDE OF MOS GUIDANCE WITH INCREASED HIGH/MID LEVEL CLOUDS AFTER 06Z. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THE 00Z ECMWF IS THE PREFERRED MODEL IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD. AT H5...GFS/ECMWF/CMC LOOK COMPARABLE WITH SHORT WAVE AND VORTICITY MAXIMUM CROSSING THE AREA BY 12Z TUESDAY...WHILE THE NAM SHOWS NOISE AT 12 KM. BUFKIT SOUNDINGS INDICATE SATURATION AT HIGHER LEVELS ABOVE MINUS 10C HEIGHT...BUT VERY DRY LOW LEVEL LAYER. THESE CONDITIONS SUGGEST PLENTY OF CLOUDS...BUT VERY LOW CHANCES FOR PCPN ATTM. THEREFORE...KEPT NO PCPN THROUGH THE PERIOD. WEAK NORTHWEST FLOW BY 12Z TUESDAY...TURNS NORTHERLY ON WEDNESDAY...KEEPING COOL AND DRY CONDITIONS THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT. PLEASANT AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES GENERALLY IN THE 60S...BUT COLD NIGHTS IN THE UPPER 30S WILL PREVAIL. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... MODELS AGREE IN A GENERALLY DRY AND COOLER PATTERN IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT THIS PERIOD. ABOUT THE ONLY SYSTEM WILL BE A COLD FRONT THAT DROPS ACROSS THE AREA FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT. MOISTURE WILL BE LIMITED...BUT THERE APPEARS TO BE ENOUGH SUPPORT FOR WIDELY SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS WITH THE FRONT...POSSIBLY ENDING A FEW SNOW SHOWERS IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS FRIDAY NIGHT...WITH NO ACCUMULATIONS EXPECTED. THEREAFTER...CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE WITH COLDER AND DRIER AIR DOMINATES INTO THE WEEKEND. && .AVIATION /08Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL THROUGH THE VALID PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE REMAINS ANCHORED TO THE NE OF THE AREA THIS PERIOD. EXPECT LIGHT/VARIABLE FLOW DURING THE EVENING/OVERNIGHT PERIODS...WITH LIGHT NE/SE FLOW DURING THE DAY MONDAY. SOME LOWER LEVEL CLOUDS MAY IMPACT THE EASTERN HIGH TERRAIN MAINLY BTWN 12Z-21Z MON...INCLUDING BKW. AT THIS POINT IT APPEARS THAT THESE CLOUDS WILL REMAIN IN THE LOW VFR RANGE AROUND 5-6KFT. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: RIVER VALLEY FOG IS A POSSIBILITY EARLY MON MORNING WHICH MAY LEAD TO BRIEF MVFR CONDITIONS...MAINLY S AND E. LOW CLOUDS WHICH MAY IMPACT BKW MAY BE LOWER THAN FORECAST...RESULTING IN HIGH MVFR CIGS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE MON 11/19/12 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EST 1HRLY 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H L L L H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z TUESDAY... NO SIGNIFICANT IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...ARJ/50 NEAR TERM...50 SHORT TERM...ARJ LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...50