250 FXUS61 KCAR 122324 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 624 PM EST MON NOV 12 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH FROM THE WEST TODAY AND THEN CROSS THE STATE TUESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK.&& .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/... UPDATE 1815L: SOME HIGH CLDS OVERSPREADING WRN HALF OF THE FA ATTM AND THESE WILL CONT TO SPREAD EWRD AND THICKEN AS A COLD FRONT APPROACHES FROM THE W OVRNGT. ALSO WILL SEE SOME LOWER CLDS AND PSBL FOG DVLP/SPREAD NEWRD LATER TNGT IN THE MOIST SRLY FLOW AHEAD OF THIS FRONT. ATTM...CURRENT FCST ON TRACK W/ JUST A MINOR TWEAK TO THE HRLY TEMPS WARRANTED... CHALLENGES THIS TERM WILL BE WINDS, QPF AND TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES SPIKED UP THIS AFTERNOON AS THE FOG AND LOW CLOUDS BURNED OFF W/SOUTHERLY WIND. TEMPERATURES OVER THE INTERIOR DOWNEAST AND SOME SITES IN WESTERN MAINE HIT INTO THE LOWER AND MID 60S BUT SINCE HAVE COOLED DOWN A FEW DEGREES AS THE SOUTH HAS TAKEN COLD. FURTHER NORTH AND EAST, TEMPERATURES PUSHED WELL INTO THE MID AND UPPER 50S W/EXCEPTION OF FAR NW MAINE(ST. JOHN VALLEY) AS READINGS STAYED IN THE MID AND UPPER 40S. TEMPERATURES WILL DROP OFF THIS EVENING FOR A TIME AND LEVEL OFF. INCREASING CLOUDS AND SOUTHERLY WINDS WILL HALT TEMPERATURES UNTIL AFTER MIDNIGHT AS ANOTHER SURGE OF WARMER AIR PUSHES IN FROM THE SSW AHEAD OF THE APCHG COLD FRONT. STRONG LLVL JET OF 60+ KTS FROM 925-850MBS IS SHOWN BY THE CANADIAN GEM/NAM AND EVEN THE GFS TO MOVE OVER THE CWA OVERNIGHT THROUGH EARLY TUESDAY. THIS WILL HELP TO BRING THAT WARMER AIR IN AND ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES IN THE BLYR TO RISE AFTER MIDNIGHT AND DECIDED TO PLAY IT THIS WAY IN TONIGHT'S FCST. THE STRONG SHEAR ALOFT WILL NEED TO MONITORED BY THE LATER SHIFTS, AS SOME OF THAT STRONG LLVL JET COULD GET TRANSLATED DOWN TO THE SFC ESPECIALLY IN HEAVIER RAINFALL LATER TONIGHT INTO EARLY TUESDAY. SOME PAST WIND EVENTS CLOSE TO THIS SETUP HAVE SHOWN SOME STRONG WINDS GUSTS TO MIX DOWN FOR A BRIEF PERIOD(3 HRS) RIGHT ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF THE STRONG COLD FRONT. THEREFORE, DECIDED TO BOOST THE WIND GUSTS UP TO ACCOUNT FOR THIS THINKING. SPEAKING OF THE QPF, COORDINATED W/NERFC AND DECIDED TO GO W/0.25-0.50" AREAL BASIN BY TUESDAY AFTERNOON W/THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS OVER THE UPSLOPE FAVORED REGIONS W/A SOUTHERLY WIND COMPONENT. THE COLD FRONT IS SHOWN TO MOVE ACROSS THE CWA BY MIDDAY TUESDAY AND TEMPERATURES MAXING OUT BY MID MORNING. FOLLOWED A BLEND OF THE NAM12 AND LAMP GUIDANCE WHICH POINT TO UPPER 50S TOP LOWER 60S DOWNEAST AND LOWER/MID 50S FOR NORTHERN/CENTRAL AREAS RESPECTIVELY. TEMPERATURES WILL START FALLING BACK AFTER 18Z AS STRONG CAA TAKES OVER W/SOME LEFTOVER RAIN SHOWERS GOING OVER TO SNOW SHOWERS ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE W AND NW AREAS. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE PERIOD. A COLD FRONT WILL BE EXTENDED SOUTHWEST THROUGH EASTERN WASHINGTON COUNTY AT THE START OF THE PERIOD. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE BUILDING INTO THE AREA FROM THE WEST. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE HIGH PRESSURE WILL PUSH THE REMNANTS OF THE FRONT INTO THE GULF OF MAINE WATERS. THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH THE AREA LATE IN THE DAY WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE REGION AND DOMINATE THE WEATHER THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. THE TEMPERATURES WILL BE SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...OTHERWISE PARTLY CLOUDY WITH GENERALLY LIGHT WINDS. LOADED A BLEND OF NAM/GFS/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP/WND/TEMP/DP. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. PLUS 25 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS IN THE COASTAL WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/... STRONG HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE WEST AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS PERIOD AND CREST OVER THE STATE SUNDAY MORNING. THIS STRONG RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE UNTIL DISPLACED BY APPROACHING LOW PRESSURE FROM THE SOUTH EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE OPERATIONAL GFS...ECMWF AND MOST ENSEMBLE PERTURBATIONS SUPPORT THIS. SO WILL INITIALIZE ALL GRIDS WITH THE GMOS. WILL THEN LOWER POPS THROUGH SATURDAY WITH MOST GUIDANCE INDICATING STRONG RIDGE OVER THE NORTHEAST. HAVE ALSO ADJUSTED SKY COVER ALONG WITH MAXIMUM AND MINIMUM TEMPERATURE. && .AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR ATTM TO DROP BACK TO MVFR AND THEN IFR LATER IN THE EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY. LLWS WILL BE A CONCERN FALL ALL TERMINALS AS WELL. CONDITIONS WILL IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. SHORT TERM: SKY AND VSBY WILL BE VFR AT ALL SITES THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: SCA REMAINS IN PLACE. CONDITIONS ATTM ARE BELOW SCA LEVELS BUT ARE EXPECTED TO COME UP BY THIS EVENING AND CONTINUE INTO THROUGH MIDDAY TUESDAY. A NAM12/GFS40 BLEND WAS USED FOR THE SUSTAINED WINDS FOR 15-20 KTS W/GUSTS TO 25 KTS. SEAS ATTM WERE AT 3-4 FT AND SLOWLY BUILDING. 5-7 FT LOOKS GOOD FOR OVERNIGHT ITO TUESDAY AS PREVIOUS FCSTS HAVE BEEN SHOWING. SAW NO REASON ATTM TO STEER AWAY FROM THIS THINKING W/SSW FLOW AHEAD OF THE FRONT HELPING TO BUILD THOSE WAVE HEIGHTS. SHORT TERM: AN SCA FOR SEAS MAYBE REQUIRED EARLY IN THE PERIOD AS THE COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE EASTERN GULF OF MAINE. .SEAS WILL SUBSIDE DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY...HOWEVER A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM SOUTH OF THE GULF OF MAINE WILL BRING SEAS BACK UP TO SCA CRITERIA WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THE END OF THE PERIOD. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 PM EST TUESDAY FOR ANZ050>052. && $$ NEAR TERM...KHW/HEWITT SHORT TERM...NORTON LONG TERM...MIGNONE AVIATION...KHW MARINE...KHW/HEWITT/NORTON