581 FXUS61 KRLX 071139 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 639 AM EST WED NOV 7 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK SURFACE LOW DEPARTS LATE WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS IN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK AND THE WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... UPDATE... NO UPDATES THIS MORNING AS THE FORECAST IS ON TRACK. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... UPPER TROUGH TO TRACK WEST OF THE AREA THROUGH THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY AND INTO THE TENNESSEE VALLEY BY EVENING WEDNESDAY. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN KENTUCKY BRINGING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS OVER THE SOUTHERN ZONES WILL SLOWLY FILL/ABSORB INTO THE COASTAL LOW. IN THE END...OUR TWO VIRGINIA COUNTIES SEE THE BEST SHOT AT SHOWERS LATER THIS MORNING AND EARLY AFTERNOON. COASTAL LOW TO LIKELY EJECT TO THE NORTHEAST...WITH THE NAM AS THE OUTLIER HOLDING IT OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST. BELIEVE THE GENERAL CONSENSUS OF THE OTHER MODELS...AND THUS CLEARING SHOULD ENSUE TONIGHT. WILL SEE TEMPERATURES TONIGHT BOTTOM OUT BELOW FREEZING AGAIN AFTER ANOTHER DAY THAT FAILS TO REACH NORMAL TEMPERATURES FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/... STRONG MODEL AGREEMENT ON A WARM UPPER RIDGE DOMINATING THE OHIO VALLEY THROUGH AT LEAST THE EARLY PART OF THE WEEKEND. DRY CONDITIONS WILL LEAD TO A LARGE DAILY RANGE IN TEMPERATURES THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...WITH WELL ABOVE NORMAL HIGHS APPROACHING 70 DEGREES LOWLANDS...AND LOWS FOR THE LOWLANDS IN THE 20S AND 30S. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... HIGH PRESSURE...SURFACE AND ALOFT THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL KEEP TEMPERATURES WARM AND THE WEATHER DRY ACROSS THE AREA. BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY WILL SEE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES...WITH SUNDAY WARMER AS THE UPPER RIDGE BUILDS IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...AND AS THE SURFACE HIGH CONTINUES TO SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST...RESULTING IN A WARM SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE AREA. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA SOMETIME EARLY NEXT WEEK. 12Z GFS HAS HELD ONTO THE RIDGE A LITTLE BIT LONGER...AND SLOWED DOWN THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT INTO THE CWA. REGARDLESS...ENOUGH WARM AIR SHOULD BE IN PLACE INITIALLY FOR PRECIPITATION TO BE MAINLY IN THE FORM OF RAIN CWA WIDE...UNTIL ENOUGH COLD AIR IS ABLE TO MOVE IN BEHIND THE FRONT...EVENTUALLY CHANGING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN INTO SNOW OR A RAIN SNOW MIX. HOWEVER...WITH THE COLDER AIR COMES A RAPID DECREASE IN MOISTURE...AND PRECIPITATION MAY END UP AS DRIZZLE OR FREEZING DRIZZLE AT TIMES ACROSS THE HIGHER TERRAIN COUNTIES. NOT EXPECTING ANY WATER ISSUES AT THIS POINT AS THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED PRECIPITATION APPEAR TO BE RATHER PROGRESSIVE. && .AVIATION /11Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... PKB AND EKN FELL INTO SOME VISIBILITY RESTRICTIONS THIS MORNING...BUT SHOULD RECOVER QUICKLY AFTER DAWN. VFR SHOULD PERSIST FOR THE DAY WEDNESDAY. LAMP GUIDANCE KEEPS FOG OUT OF THE FORECAST TONIGHT...AND DESPITE THE LATE RESTRICTIONS AT PKB AND EKN THIS MORNING...WILL ROLL WITH THE VFR FORECAST. LIGHT NORTHERLY FLOW 5-10KTS WILL DOMINATE TODAY. WINDS 10KTS OUT OF THE NORTHWEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS TONIGHT...AND LESS THAN 10KTS TO CALM IN THE LOWLANDS. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EST 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z THURSDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...26 SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...MZ AVIATION...26