462 FXUS61 KCAR 021558 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 1158 AM EDT FRI NOV 2 2012 .SYNOPSIS... LOW PRESSURE WILL REMAIN ACROSS QUEBEC TODAY AND THEN DRIFT EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. COLDER HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE IN EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... NOON UPDATE...MADE SOME MINOR MODIFICATION TO SHOWER COVERAGE OVER NORTHERN AREAS. ALSO BROUGHT TEMPS DOWN A COUPLE DEGREES OVER THE NORTH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH TONIGHT. THUS WE CAN EXPECT A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY CLOUDY SKIES AS WELL AS SCATTERED TO ISOLATED SHOWERS TODAY. PATCHY FOG CAN BE EXPECTED THIS MORNING AS BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ALLOW FOR SOME RADIATION FOG TO DEVELOP. HIGH TEMPERATURES TODAY WILL RANGE FROM AROUND 50 NORTH AND LOW TO MID 50S DOWNEAST. SKIES WILL REMAIN MAINLY CLOUDY ONCE AGAIN TONIGHT BUT IT SHOULD REMAIN DRY. LOWS TONIGHT WILL RANGE FROM THE MID TO UPPER 30S ACROSS THE REGION. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... LARGE AND PERSISTENT AREA OF LOW PRES AT THE SFC AND ALOFT WHICH HAS BEEN AFFECTING OUR REGION LAST FEW DYS FINALLY BEGINS TO SHIFT E OF THE AREA ON SAT W/ THIS TREND CONTG THRU SUN... LINGERING SHOWERS WILL CONT TO BE A THREAT INTO SUN MAINLY OVR THE FAVORED UPSLOPE AREAS OF WRN AND NRN MAINE THO ANY PRECIP AMOUNTS SHOULD STAY ON THE LGT SIDE. WILL CONT LOW CHC POPS THESE AREAS W/ JUST SLGT CHC TO NIL NIL POPS ELSEWHERE. TREND THRU THE WEEKEND WILL ALSO BE TOWARDS COOLER MORE SEASONAL TEMPS AS NW FLOW AT ALL LEVELS BECOMES ESTABLISHED ACROSS THE REGION BY SUN.&& .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL CONT TO OVERSPREAD THE AREA SUN NGT THRU THE ERLY PART OF THE UPCOMING WEEK AS COLD CANADIAN HIGH PRES BUILDS INTO THE REGION THIS THIS HIGH FCST TO CREST THE AREA LATER TUE THEN SHIFT E OF THE REGION TUE NGT. THIS WILL RESULT IN DRY BUT CHILLY CONDS W/ TEMPS ACTUALLY A BIT BLO SEASONAL NORMS FOR A CHANGE... FOR WED/THU...LONGER TERM GFS/EURO ACTUALLY IN REASONABLY GOOD AGREEMENT THIS FAR OUT W/ BOTH POINTING TO A RATHER SIGNIFICANT NOR EASTER FOR MUCH OF THE NERN US INCLUDING OUR AREA. BOTH MODELS ALSO SHOW THIS SYSTEM BRINGING UP QUITE A BIT OF WARM AIR AS THIS LOW TRACKS NNEWRD UP THE COAST AND ACROSS CAPE COD WED NGT. THIS SHOULD RESULT IN A MAINLY RAIN EVENT FOR OUR REGION W/ STRONG E TO SE WINDS A GOOD BET SPCLY OUR COASTAL AREAS. MADE A FEW ADJUSTMENTS TO GMOS POPS TO BETTER MATCH TIMING AND CONFIDENCE W/ RARE LIKELY POPS ADVERTISED WAY OUT FOR WED NGT. ALSO HAD TO MAKE SIGNIFICANT UPWARD MODIFICATIONS TO GMOS TEMPS WED NGT WHICH LOOK WAY TO COLD GIVEN THE MORE WRN TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM AND THE RESULTANT STRONG WAA ACROSS OUR REGION... && .AVIATION /16Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: PATCHY FOG IS EXPECTED TO AFFECT THE TAF SITES THIS MORNING MAINLY THE NORTHERN TERMINALS WITH IFR/LIFR AT TIMES THROUGH ABOUT 13Z. CONDITIONS SHOULD THEN IMPROVE TO MVFR AND THEN VFR THIS AFTERNOON. KBGR/KBHB SHOULD REMAIN MAINLY VFR THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: MAINLY VFR CONDS EXPECTED THRU THE PD W/ JUST SOME FAIRLY BRIEF PDS OF MVFR PSBL IN ANY SHOWERS MAINLY NRN TAF SITES INTO SUN... && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WIND/SEAS TO REMAIN BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS THROUGH TONIGHT. SHORT TERM: WNDS MAY REACH LOW END SCA LEVELS BY LATER SUN AS NW FLOW AND CAA INCREASES OVER THE WATERS... && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...MCB