109 FXUS61 KCAR 010127 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 927 PM EDT WED OCT 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THE WEAKENING REMNANT LOW OF SANDY WILL LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC OVERNIGHT THEN REMAIN OVER QUEBEC INTO FRIDAY. THE LOW WILL SLIDE EAST ACROSS THE MARITIMES THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... 921 PM UPDATE: AFTER REDUCED CVRG FOR PREVIOUS UPDATE...SHWR CVRG HAS INCREASED AGAIN THIS MID EVE...APPARENTLY JUST AHEAD OF THE OCCLUDED/COLD FRONT WHICH WILL FINALLY CLEAR NERN MOST ME BY 1 AM OR SO. ONCE THIS FRONT CLEARS THE FA...MOST IF NOT EVEN ALL OF THE SHWR ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE N AND E INTO NB AND ERN QB PROVS. SIMILAR TO PREV UPDATE...WE LOADED 9 PM OBSVD HRLY TEMPS AND HRLY INTERPOLATED TO TEMPS AT 2 AM WITH AGAIN...NO CHGS MADE TO FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM THU. 645 PM UPDATE: JUST MINOR CHGS TO FCST QPF FOR THE 18-24Z PD THIS EVE AND THE 00-06Z PD OVRNGT TO BETTER MATCH QPF WITHE MAX POP DISTRIBUTION DURG THESE PDS. OTHERWISE...LOADED 6 PM OBSVD HRLY TEMPS AND HRLY INTERPOLATED TO TEMPS AT 2 AM FOR NOW. NO CHGS WERE MADE TO FCST LOWS POSTED AT 6 AM THU. ORGNL DISC: THE WEAKENING LEFTOVER LOW FROM HURRICANE SANDY WILL BE LIFTING TO OUR WEST TONIGHT. SOME DRIER AIR CAN BE SEEN CIRCULATING INTO THE SYSTEM FROM THE SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THE COVERAGE AND INTENSITY OF SHOWERS TONIGHT. HOWEVER...SOME TROPICAL MOISTURE REMAINS IN THE CIRCULATION AND COULD SPAWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS ANYTIME ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTH AND THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW WILL CONTINUE TO DISSIPATE AND LIFT NORTH INTO QUEBEC ON THURSDAY. SLIGHTLY COOLER AIR WILL FILTER IN FROM THE WEST BEHIND THE LOW LIMITING HIGHS TO THE 50S IN MOST AREAS THURSDAY. SOME ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO BE POSSIBLE ON THURSDAY BUT MOST AREAS SHOULD REMAIN RAIN FREE. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... UNSETTLED AND CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY UNTIL THE UPPER LOW ASSOCIATED WITH THE REMNANTS OF SANDY FINALLY MOVES EAST OF THE REGION. THE PERIOD STARTS THURSDAY NIGHT WITH A SHORTWAVE ROTATING AROUND THE UPPER LOW IN QUEBEC. THIS LOBE COULD BRING UP TO A TENTH OF AN INCH OF RAIN TO NE PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA AS A WEAK AREA OF SURFACE LOW PRESSURE FORMS IN NEW BRUNSWICK. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 40S. COOLER AIR ADVECTS INTO THE FORECAST AREA FRIDAY AS A WESTERLY SURFACE FLOW FINALLY REPLACES THE WARM AND MOIST SOUTHEAST FLOW. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE LOW TO MID 50S. ANOTHER VORT MAX ROTATES AROUND THE UPPER LOW BY LATER FRIDAY AND THE RISK OF LIGHT SHOWERS REMAINS IN THE FORECAST THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. LOWS WILL BE IN THE UPPER 30S TO LOW 40S. THE UPPER LOW ITSELF MOVES OVER THE STATE SATURDAY AND KEEPS THE CHANCE OF LIGHT SHOWERS IN THE FORECAST. COLD AIR ADVECTION CONTINUES SATURDAY WITH A STRENGTHENING NORTHWEST FLOW. THIS FLOW WILL LIMIT HIGH TEMPERATURES TO MORE SEASONABLE READINGS IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AT THE START OF THE LONG TERM THE MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT. A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WITH MULTIPLE CENTERS WILL COVER MOST OF NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA. A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE DIGGING SOUTH OUT OF NORTHERN CANADA EXTENDS THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES TO SOUTHERN FLORIDA. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER SOUTHWESTERN MISSOURI...AND A SECOND LOW OVER NORTHERN NORTH DAKOTA. BY SUNDAY MORNING THE LOW OVER NEW ENGLAND AND EASTERN CANADA MOVES EAST INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDS EAST INTO WESTERN MAINE...THE LOW OVER MISSOURI DEEPENS AND MOVES EAST TO CENTRAL KENTUCKY. BY MONDAY MORNING THE GFS AND ECMWF DIFFER ON THEIR SOLUTIONS. BOTH MAINTAIN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS MAINE. THE GFS MOVES THE LOW EAST TO NORTH CAROLINA...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL WATERS OF THE CAROLINAS. THE ECMWF ALSO SHOWS A WEAK LOW OVER NORTHEASTERN OHIO. MONDAY EVENING THE GFS PUSHES THE LOW INTO THE COASTAL WATERS DEEPENS THE LOW AND MOVES IT NORTH TO THE NEW JERSEY COAST. THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE LOW OFF THE COAST OF THE CAROLINAS. TUESDAY MORNING THE GFS MOVES THE LOW INTO THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...THE ECMWF MAINTAINS THE LOW EAST OF THE CAROLINA COAST. TUESDAY EVENING THE LOW MOVES NORTH TO THE DOWNEAST COAST...WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO NORTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK. THE ECMWF DEEPENS THE LOW AND BEGINS TO MOVE IT NORTH WELL EAST OF THE COAST. WEDNESDAY MORNING THE GFS MOVES THE LOW TO NORTHEASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD IN THE SOUTHERN GULF OF MAINE...WITH THE WARM FRONT EXTENDING NORTHEAST INTO THE BAY OF FUNDY. BY WEDNESDAY EVENING BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA. THE GFS HAS IT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES...THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO EASTERN NEW BRUNSWICK. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE MAIN LOW WILL BE EAST OF THE AREA...HOWEVER BOTH MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT WE WILL REMAIN UNDER WRAP AROUND PRECIPITATION. LOADED A BLEND OF GFS/ECMWF FOR SKY/POP/WNDS. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 25 PERCENT TO WINDS FOR GUSTS OVER THE COASTAL WATERS...15 PERCENT OVER LAND. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... NEAR TERM: GENERALLY IFR CONDITIONS IN VARIABLE LOW CLOUDS CAN BE EXPECTED TONIGHT. IFR TO MVFR CONDITIONS IN LOW CLOUDS ARE EXPECTED ON THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: PREDOMINANTLY MVFR DUE TO LOW CLOUDS WITH SOME PERIODS OF IFR IN RAIN AND DRIZZLE AT ALL TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: AN SCA FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS WILL BE ISSUED TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. WINDS SHOULD BE BELOW 25 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY. SHORT TERM: SEAS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE FROM NEAR 5 FEET THURSDAY EVENING. NW WINDS WILL PICK UP LATE SATURDAY WITH THE RISK OF 25 KT GUSTS AND ANOTHER SCA. && .HYDROLOGY... ALL HYDRO WARNINGS ARE NO LONGER IN EFFECT...WITH RVR LVLS IN THE PISCATAQUIS AND ITS STREAM TRIBUTARIES NOW BLO FLOOD STAGE. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FOR HAZARDOUS SEAS UNTIL 6 PM EDT THURSDAY FOR ANZ050-051. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...MCW LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...VJN MARINE...VJN/MCW HYDROLOGY...VJN