676 FXUS63 KILX 291530 AFDILX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 1030 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 1030 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012 CWA REMAINS IN BETWEEN THE LARGE AREA OF SANDY AND THE SFC RIDGE TO THE WEST. WITH THIS CREATING NORTHERLY FLOW...STILL EXPECTING AN INCREASE IN NORTHERLY WINDS LATE THIS MORNING AND INTO THE AFTERNOON. CLEAR SKIES WILL ALSO PREVAIL FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SO CURRENT FORECAST HAS GOOD HANDLE ON SITUATION...BUT BELIEVE TEMPS MIGHT BE AROUND 2 DEGREES WARMER THAN YESTERDAY GIVEN MORE SUNSHINE TODAY THAN YESTERDAY. UPDATE WILL BE OUT SHORTLY...ONLY FOR SLIGHTLY WARMER TEMPS IN THE NORTH. AUTEN && .AVIATION... ISSUED 652 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012...FOR THE 12Z TAFS CENTRAL IL WILL REMAIN UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF DRY HIGH PRESSURE THE NEXT 24 HOURS. THE MAIN WEATHER ISSUE WILL BE INCREASING NORTH- NORTHWEST WINDS THIS MORNING...WITH PEAK AFTERNOON WIND GUSTS NEAR 30 KT AT TIMES AROUND CMI. WINDS WILL BE PROGRESSIVELY LESS STRONG FARTHER WEST ACROSS ILLINOIS...WITH PEAK AFTERNOON GUSTS AROUND PIA OF 22KT. WINDS WILL DIMINISH BY EVENING WITH SKIES REMAINING MOSTLY CLEAR. NO REDUCTION TO VISIBILITY IS EXPECTED THIS TAF PERIOD. SHIMON && .PREV DISCUSSION... ISSUED 330 AM CDT MON OCT 29 2012 SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT 00Z MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT NEXT FEW DAYS OVER IL AND WILL USE A BLEND. MAV AND MET TEMPS ARE SIMILAR THROUGH WED...EXCEPT MET IS 2-4F WARMER THAN MAV FOR HIGHS TUE AND WED AND STAYED WITH A BLEND HERE. GUIDANCE LOWS TUE NIGHT APPEAR TOO COLD GIVEN THE NW WINDS WILL BE HOLDING UP THAT NIGHT DUE TO SANDY. FORECAST CONCERN IS TRACK OF HURRICANE SANDY AND ITS MAIN AFFECTS BEING A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER IL AND INCREASING NNW WINDS THROUGH TUE ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL. NHC/NCEP USED 00Z UKMET THRU TUE FOR SANDY AND 00Z NAM/GFS ON WED. EARLY MORNING SURFACE MAP SHOWS 1032 MB CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE OVER NORTHERN ONTARIO AND RIDGING SOUTHWARD ACROSS WESTERN WI INTO CENTRAL IA/MO. MEANWHILE HURRICANE SANDY WITH 950 MB LOW (28.05 INCHES) PACKING WINDS OF 75 MPH WAS LIFTING NORTHWARD OFF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST WITH ITS WIND FLOW AS FAR WEST AS THE MS RIVER. CLEAR SKIES OVER MOST OF CENTRAL IL WITH A FEW PATCHES OF CLOUDS EAST OF I-57. TEMPS WERE MOSTLY IN THE 30S WITH 28F AT GALESBURG WHERE ANOTHER HARD FREEZE WAS OCCURRING FOR THE 3RD CONSECUTIVE NIGHT. MILDEST READINGS IN THE UPPER 30S WERE OVER EASTERN IL WHERE NNW WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WHILE LIGHT NORTH WINDS OVER WESTERN IL GIVING COLDER CONDITIONS. WILL CONTINUE THE FREEZE WARNING FROM I-57 WEST UNTIL 8 AM...THOUGH AREAS ALONG I-57 MAY STAY A FEW DEGREES ABOVE FREEZING. NNW WINDS TO INCREASE DURING THE DAY ESPECIALLY OVER EASTERN IL WHERE GUSTS OF 20 TO 30 MPH POSSIBLE BY AFTERNOON. MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES EXPECTED TODAY AS NNW WINDS KEEPS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE FETCH AND CU/STRATOCU CLOUD FIELD MORE INTO INDIANA. HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE LOWER 50S WHICH IS ABOUT 10 DEGREES COOLER THAN NORMAL FOR LATE OCT. LOWS TONIGHT IN THE LOW TO MID 30S WITH MILDEST READINGS IN EASTERN IL DUE TO STRONGER WINDS AGAIN. HURRICANE SANDY TO STRENGTHEN TO 80 MPH BY THIS EVENING AND STRIKE NEAR THE SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY COAST OVERNIGHT THEN MOVE NW INTO CENTRAL PA TUE EVENING AND NEAR THE NY/LAKE ONTARIO SHORE BY SUNSET WED/HALLOWEEN AND INTO FAR EASTERN ONTARIO BY SUNSET THU AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS. STRONGEST NNW WINDS FROM SANDY TO OCCUR TUE WITH GUSTS OF 30 TO 35 MPH OVER EASTERN IL AND POTENTIALLY UP TO 40 MPH NEAR THE INDIANA BORDER TUE AFTERNOON. MORE CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TUE NE OF CHAMPAIGN WHILE MOSTLY SUNNY REST OF AREA WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER 50S AGAIN. LOWS TUE NIGHT AGAIN NEAR FREEZING IN THE LOWER 30S. NORTHWEST WINDS NOT QUITE AS STRONG WED FROM 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS AROUND 25 MPH AND HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S AGAIN AS SANDY GRADUALLY WEAKENS AND PULLS AWAY. DRY AND COOL WEATHER EXPECTED AGAIN THU WITH LOWS STILL GETTING NEAR OR JUST ABOVE FREEZING THROUGH THU NIGHT. LONG TERM...FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY EXTENDED MODELS HAVE TRENDED SLOWER WITH WARMUP AND ALSO WITH NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM THIS WEEKEND. HIGHS IN THE MID 50S FRIDAY AND UPPER 50S/LOWER 60S THIS WEEKEND. DRIER CONDITIONS LOOK TO PREVAIL MUCH OF THIS WEEKEND WITH JUST SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS BY SUNDAY AND MORE LIKELY THEREAFTER. UPPER LEVEL RIDGE IS SLOWER MOVING INTO IL BY SAT NIGHT WHILE AN UPPER LEVEL TROF WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MAY NOT REACH IL UNTIL SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY WITH NEXT GOOD CHANCE OF SHOWERS. 07 && .ILX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$