406 FXUS62 KMHX 290527 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 127 AM EDT MON OCT 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY WELL OFF THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST WILL MOVE SLOWLY NORTH TONIGHT THEN BE LOCATED OFF OF THE MID ATLANTIC COAST MONDAY. A STRONG COLD FRONT WILL SWING THROUGH THE AREA FROM THE WEST ON OVERNIGHT FOLLOWED BY COOL HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. && .NEAR TERM /OVERNIGHT/... AS OF 1 AM MON...ONLY SIG CHANGE WAS TO DROP FLOOD WATCH FOR COUNTIES ADJACENT TO THE ALBEMARLE SOUND AS RAIN HAS SHIFTED E ONTO THE OUTER BANKS. WILL MAINTAIN WATCH FOR THE OUTER BANKS...AS LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN CONTINUES NORTH OF HATTERAS. THE PRECIP SHIELD WILL GRADUALLY PIVOT TO A MORE WNW ORIENTATION BUT MOST OF THE INLAND AND SOUTHERN AREAS WILL REMAIN DRY OVERNIGHT. DID ADD AREAS OF -RA/DZ TO INLAND AND SOUTHERN AREAS THROUGH EARLY MONDAY MORNING. TS FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVER COASTAL SECTIONS WITH THE TS WARNING REMAINING IN EFFECT. MIN TEMPS FROM NEAR 50 INLAND TO UPR 50S OBX. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SATURDAY...PREVIOUS FCST WITH TRACK OF SANDY GENERALLY ON TRACK AND EXPECT MAIN RAIN BAND TO MOVE N-NE OF AREA BY LATE MORNING...WITH LINGERING CHC POPS OVER AREA ASSCTD WITH SHRT WV TROF. WINDS GRADUALLY DIMINISHING DURING THE DAY BUT TS FORCE STILL LIKELY FOR COASTAL SECTIONS INTO AFTN. MAX TEMPS FROM MID 50S INLAND TO AROUND 60 COAST. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUN...SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO LIFT N/NNW ON MONDAY NIGHT...MAKING LANDFALL IN THE MIDDLE ATLANTIC REGION. PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED INTO TUESDAY COMBINED WITH CAA AND WINDY/BREEZY CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE. CHANCES OF RAIN WILL CONTINUE INTO TUESDAY FROM THE BACKSIDE OF SANDY...WITH BEST CHANCES IN THE NORTHERN CWA. BY WEDNESDAY MORNING...THE NORTHERN CWA WILL STILL HAVE SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS.FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD...DRIER AND COOLER AIR WILL PERSIST WITH EXPECTED BELOW NORMAL TEMPS WITH HIGHS IN THE 50S TO 60S...AND OVERNIGHT LOWS IN THE MID 30S TO UPPER 40S. && .AVIATION /06Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 125 AM MONDAY...PRECIPITATION SHIELD ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL CYCLONE SANDY IS NOW OFF OF THE COAST. WIDESPREAD LOW CLOUDS REMAIN MAINLY WITH CEILINGS IN THE MVFR RANGE WITH SOME ISOLATED IFR. THE MVFR CEILINGS ARE FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO MONDAY AFTERNOON. RADAR AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS ARE INDICATING LIGHT DRIZZLE WHICH HAS REDUCED VISIBILITIES INTO THE MVFR RANGE AND WHICH IS FORECAST TO PERSIST INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. VFR CONDITIONS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP MONDAY AFTERNOON AS SOMEWHAT DRIER AIR ASSOCIATED WITH STRONG WESTERLY FLOW AROUND THE REMNANTS OF SANDY WHICH IS FORECAST TO MOVE INLAND OVER THE MID ATLANTIC MONDAY EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST TO 25-30 KT THROUGH THE PERIOD. LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 330 PM SUN...VFR CONDITIONS RETURN BACK ON MONDAY NIGHT FOR MOST OF THE WEEK. THERE MAY BE SOME BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR CONDITIONS ON TUESDAY FROM THE BACKSIDE OF SANDY BRINGS A SLIGHT CHANCE OF RAIN SHOWERS...MAINLY PGV. WINDS WILL REMAIN BREEZY FOR TUESDAY AND SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TODAY/... AS OF 1 AM MON...NO SIG CHANGES FOR UPDATE. TS FORCE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO TODAY AS SANDY MOVES BY OFFSHORE TONIGHT AND NE OF AREA MONDAY. DIRECTION WILL GRADUALLY BACK FROM N-NW OVERNIGHT TO NW ON MONDAY. WAVE HEIGHTS TO AROUND 24 FT WILL CONTINUE OFFSHORE OF OUTER BANKS DURING PERIOD BUT WILL SUBSIDE OVER SRN WATERS AS WINDS BECOME MORE OFFSHORE. LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/... AS OF 345 PM SUN...WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO BE NEAR TROPICAL STORM/GALE FORCE AS SANDY LIFTS N/NW MAKING LANDFALL IN THE MID- ATLANTIC REGION MONDAY EVENING. TC/POST SANDY WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE A TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT COMBINED WITH A CAA AND WINDS EXPECTED TO RANGE 25-35KT FROM W/SW ON TUESDAY. THE GRADIENT WILL REMAIN TIGHTENED THROUGH THE WEEK WITH LOW PRESSURE IN THE NE. WINDS WILL SLOWLY SUBSIDE TUE...BUT COULD STILL SEE GALE FORCE CONDITIONS EARLY TUE ESP FOR THE WATERS NORTH OF HATTERAS. SCA CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH LATE WEEK...WITH MODERATE TO STRONG WLY FLOW. SEAS WILL START TO SUBSIDING ON TUESDAY ALONG THE COASTAL WATERS...WITH SEAS EXPECTING TO SUBSIDE 5-10 NORTH OF HATTERAS...AND 5-10FT SOUTH APPROX BY TUESDAY NIGHT. SEAS WILL CONTINUE TO SUBSIDE THROUGHOUT THE WEEK. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... MODERATE TO HIGH COASTAL FLOODING CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY. STRONG GUSTY WINDS WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND GRADUALLY DIMINISHING THROUGH MONDAY AS TC SANDY LIFTS NE OFF THE NC COAST. AREAS ALONG THE SOUNDS...INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS AND OCRACOKE...SHOULD CONTINUE TO PREPARE FOR INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITH SOME LOCATIONS SEEING UP TO 7 FEET ABOVE GROUND. ALONG THE SOUTHERN PAMLICO SOUND...THE WATER LEVELS HAVE ALREADY PEAKED 4 TO 5 FEET THIS MORNING AND WILL CONTINUE TO DIMINISH THROUGH THE EVENING. FOR AREAS ON THE OCEANSIDE...NORTH OF CAPE HATTERAS SHOULD BE PREPARED OR INUNDATION OF 4 TO 6 FEET ABOVE GROUND AND NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT EXPECT 2 TO 4 FEET ABOVE GROUND WITH SIGNIFICANT BREAKING WAVES CAUSE SIGNIFICANT OVERWASH AND BEACH EROSION. PLEASE SEE HLSMHX FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 8 AM EDT THIS MORNING FOR NCZ103-104. TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR NCZ046-047-080-081-093>095-098-103- 104. MARINE...TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR AMZ130-135-150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...BTC/CQD SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...BM AVIATION...JME/BM MARINE...JBM/BTC/CQD/BM TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING...BTC