520 
FXUS65 KLKN 280928
AFDLKN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV
228 AM PDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.SYNOPSIS...HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING DRY AND WARM CONDITIONS TO THE 
SILVER STATE. MILD WEATHER EXPECTED ON HALLOWEEN OVER NORTHEASTERN 
NEVADA. PRECIPITATION EXPECTED THURSDAY. THIS EVENT WILL 
PREDOMINATELY BE A RAIN EVENT WITH SNOW LEVELS ABOVE SEVEN THOUSAND 
FEET. 

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY. THE LATEST SATELLITE IMAGE SHOWS
LINGERING CIRRUS AND MID-DECK CLOUDS OVER NORTHERN ELKO COUNTY THAT
ARE PUSHING EASTWARD. THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN FEATURES A RIDGE AXIS
FROM WASHINGTON STATE TO NEVADA AND A POTENT LOW UPSTREAM. THE
RIDGE WILL RESULT IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND ACROSS THE REGION
WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS CLIMBING BACK INTO THE MID TO UPPER 60S. BY
18Z TODAY...THE 576 DAM WILL BISECT THE LKN CWA FROM DENIO TO
MONTELLO...WITH THE NAM/GFS/EC MODELS SHIFTING IT NORTHEASTWARD ON
MONDAY. SENSIBLE WEATHER-WISE...EXPECTING VERY MILD AND PLEASANT
WEATHER THIS FORECAST PERIOD.

.LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY. THE MODELS ARE IN 
PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH WEDNESDAY EVENING. DRY CONDITIONS ARE 
EXPECTED TO HOLD THROUGH THAT TIME PERIOD. THEN THE MODELS ARE IN 
DISAGREEMENT ON HOW TO HANDLE THE ENERGY FROM AN INCOMING PACIFIC 
TROUGH. THE GFS MODEL IS TIMED FASTER THAN THE ECMWF MODEL AND THE 
DGEX IS PROPOSING AN EVEN FASTER QPF INTRUSION THAN THE GFS. THE ECMWF 
DIGS THE TROUGH DEEPER THUS DELAYING PRECIPITATION ONSET. WENT WITH 
A MELD OF THESE MODELS...WITH PRECIPITATION BEGINNING TO ENTER 
WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY AROUND MIDNIGHT HALLOWEEN NIGHT. THE FIRST 
FEW DAYS OF NOVEMBER WILL BE UNSETTLED. THERE MAY BE SOME 
INSTABILITY THUNDERSTORMS ALONG A COLD FRONT ON THURSDAY HOWEVER 
WILL NOT PUT TS IN THE FORECAST FOR NOW DUE TO THE TIMING 
DIFFERENCES. ALSO LINGERED POPS INTO NEXT SATURDAY MORNING FIGURING 
A POSSIBLE LATER EXIT. TEMPERATURES WILL BE RATHER PLEASANT FOR LATE 
OCTOBER. HIGH TEMPERATURES...MID 60S TO LOWER 70S TUESDAY AND 
WEDNESDAY...UPPER 40S TO UPPER 50S THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. LOW 
TEMPERATURES...30S MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT...TEENS AND 
20S THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY NIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT KWMC KEKO KELY AND KTPH 
THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRESSURE WILL RESULT IN A DRYING AND 
WARMING TREND ACROSS NORTHEASTERN NEVADA. EXPECTING AFTERNOON HIGHS WELL 
INTO THE 60S...WHICH WILL PROVE TO BE ABOVE NORMAL. NEXT CHANCE FOR 
WETTING RAINS WILL BE THURSDAY. THE HAINES INDEX WILL BE PERSISTENTLY
VERY LOW THIS UPCOMING WEEK.


&&

.LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

97/92/92/97