940 
FXUS63 KFSD 280809
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
310 AM CDT SUN OCT 28 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 310 AM CDT/
SAME ISSUE THAT HAS BEEN PLAGUING THE CWA THE LAST FEW DAYS WILL 
AGAIN BE A PROBLEM TODAY. THAT BEING CLOUD COVER. CLEARING EDGE 
ALONG A KMDS-KYKN AT 08Z AND IS SLOWLY PROGRESSING EAST WHILE VERY 
LOW STRATUS HANGS BACK IN HON AND 9V9 AREAS. WOULD EXPECT THE 
CLEARING TO CONTINUE TO PUSH EAST TO NEAR I29 BY 12Z AND INTO 
SOUTHWEST MIN AND NORTHWEST IA AFTER THAT. HOWEVER...MORE MID AND 
HIGH CLOUDS WILL OVERSPREAD CWA DURING THE DAY AHEAD OF NEXT WEAK 
WAVE. SO A MIXED BAG OF CLOUDINESS ACROSS CWA TODAY DEPENDING 
LOCATION AND TIME OF DAY. WILL REMAIN ON THE COOL SIDE WITH HIGHS 
ONLY IN THE 40S MOST PLACES.

THE MID LEVEL WARM AIR ADVECTION CLOUDS WILL SPREAD ACROSS ALL OF 
THE CWA TONIGHT EXITING THE EASTERN CWA ON MONDAY...WITH YET ANOTHER 
WAVE OF CLOUDS MONDAY NIGHT AND TUESDAY WITH MORE WARM AIR ADVECTION 
ALOFT. AT LEAST THIS WILL FINALLY BEGIN TO BRING WARMER AIR INTO CWA 
EARLY NEXT WEEK...WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES FINALLY GETTING BACK TO 
NEAR OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL BY TUESDAY AND PERSIST THROUGH MOST OF 
THE WEEK AS RIDGE ALOFT FINALLY SHIFTS EAST OVER THE PLAINS BY 
THURSDAY. LATEST ECMWF AND GFS QUITE A BIT WARMER FOR NEXT FRIDAY AS 
RIDGE AXIS SHIFTS EAST. DID BUMP UP TEMPERATURES...BUT IF TREND 
CONTINUES...MAY NEED TO BUMP UP EVEN MORE AS COULD SEE HIGHS NEAR 70 
OR HIGHER. FOR NOW WILL NOT GO TOO AGGRESSIVE AS MODELS PROG COLD 
FRONT THROUGH CWA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND IF IT IS A BIT FASTER...THEN 
COOLER AIR WOULD FILTER IN FAST ON FRIDAY. SATURDAY WILL BE COOLER. 
WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY THROUGH NEXT SATURDAY AS PATTERN PRETTY 
BENIGN FOR ANY PRECIPITATION. 


&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 06Z TAF ISSUANCE/
IFR CEILINGS PREDICTED BY SOME MODELS HAVE INDEED DEVELOPED IN THE 
MIDDLE JAMES RIVER VALLEY AND SURROUNDING AREAS. MODEL WHICH SEEMS 
TO HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THIS DEVELOPMENT CONTINUES TO SHOW IFR 
STRATUS LIFTING NORTHEAST AWAY FROM THE TAF LOCATIONS PRIOR TO 
DAYBREAK AS ABOVE-SURFACE WINDS BECOME MORE SOUTH-SOUTHWESTERLY AND 
HAVE FOLLOWED THIS IDEA IN THE 06Z TAF SET...WITH VFR CONDITIONS 
EXPECTED AT ALL LOCATIONS BY 12Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
MN...NONE.
IA...NONE.
NE...NONE.

&&

$$