200 FXUS65 KTFX 241002 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 402 AM MDT WED OCT 24 2012 .DISCUSSION... TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY...UPPER LOW REMAINS OVER WESTERN SASKATCHEWAN. ASSOCIATED SHORT WAVE ENERGY CONTINUES TO MOVE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE COUNTY WARNING AREA. HRRR ANALYSIS...AS WELL AS MODEL DATA...INDICATES A BAND OF RADAR RETURNS EXTENDING FROM NEAR GLACIER NATIONAL PARK TO HAVRE AND SOUTH TO LEWISTOWN THIS MORNING. WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE PRESENT AND INSTABILITY WITHIN THE AIRMASS...LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING BEFORE TAPERING OFF DURING THE AFTERNOON. SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS ARE NOT EXPECTED AND THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY ISSUED EARLIER FOR THE ROCKY MOUNTAIN FRONT AND PORTIONS OF NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA HAS BEEN CANCELED. CYCLONIC FLOW ALOFT AND A COLD AIRMASS WILL ALLOW ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE TONIGHT OVER THE NORTH WITH HEAVIER SNOW EXPECTED OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF SOUTHWEST MONTANA. MOIST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER THE AREA FRIDAY WILL ALLOW ISOLATED SNOW SHOWERS TO CONTINUE. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WEEK. EMANUEL FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...AREA WILL BE UNDER A WEST TO NW FLOW ALOFT THIS WEEKEND AS AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE ATTEMPTS TO AMPLIFY ALONG WEST COAST. WEAK SHORTWAVE ENERGY AND UPPER LEVEL JET IMPULSES WILL WILL STREAM OVER THE ROCKIES IN THIS PATTERN...POTENTIALLY PRODUCING SOME LIGHT OVERRUNNING PRECIPITATION AT TIMES AS THE UPPER LEVELS WARM AND MOIST FLOW OVERRUNS COOLER AIR AT THE SURFACE. TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NEAR AVERAGE LEVELS OVER SW MT SATURDAY AND NORTH CENTRAL MT BY SUNDAY. THE UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL PROGRESS INLAND MONDAY AND TUESDAY WITH TEMPERATURES RISING ABOVE SEASONAL AVERAGES ACROSS MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA...HOWEVER WEAK DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THE RELATIVELY MOIST FLOW FROM THE PACIFIC WILL KEEP SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD-OVER OVER THE AREA WITH SCATTERED PRECIPITATION MAINLY OVER THE MOUNTAINS. MEDIUM RANGE MODELS INDICATE THAT THE RIDGE WILL BEGIN TO BREAKDOWN AROUND THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WITH THE NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM COMING ONSHORE AND APPROACHING THE NORTHERN ROCKIES ON WEDNESDAY...WHICH WILL BRING COOLER TEMPERATURES AND INCREASING MOISTURE TO THE REGION. HOENISCH && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0440Z. SNOW SHOWERS WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL MONTANA OVERNIGHT. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR FOG TO DEVELOP IN AREAS THAT HAVE CLEARED OUT BEHIND THE SHOWERS KBZN IS ALREADY IN DENSE FOG AND WILL LIKELY STAY THAT WAY THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS. KCTB AND KHVR HAVE A DECENT CHANCE OF SEEING PATCHY FOG AS WELL. MOUNTAIN OBSCURATIONS WILL BE LIKELY THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. GENERAL CLEARING WILL OCCUR AFTER 12Z. SUK && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 30 15 28 15 / 40 30 40 20 CTB 26 9 25 7 / 40 30 30 30 HLN 37 19 33 18 / 10 30 40 20 BZN 39 17 36 17 / 20 20 40 20 WEY 35 10 31 7 / 30 30 70 40 DLN 40 17 36 16 / 20 20 50 20 HVR 31 15 31 11 / 20 20 20 20 LWT 30 14 27 14 / 40 20 40 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ SHORT TERM...EMANUEL LONG TERM...HOENISCH AVIATION...SUK WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS