776 FXUS62 KMHX 120238 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1038 PM EDT THU OCT 11 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BE OVER THE AREA TONIGHT. A DRY COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH FROM THE NORTH LATE FRIDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN FROM THE NORTH FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...THEN EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. A COLD FRONT WITH MORE MOISTURE WILL MOVE THROUGH ON MONDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM FRIDAY MORNING/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE HAS SETTLED OVER AREA AND WILL PRODUCE EXCELLENT RADIATIONAL COOLING CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. CONTINUED PREVIOUS FCST FOR MIN TEMPS...GENERALLY BELOW MOS GDNC AS DRY AIR MASS WILL ALLOW TEMPS TO DROP TO NEAR 40 INLAND AND AROUND 50 OBX. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM FRIDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... AS OF 3 PM THU...WEAK WAA WILL OCCUR AHEAD OF NEXT DRY COLD FRONT BUT CLOUD COVER EXPECTED TO BE LIMITED. INSOLATION AND LIGHT DOWNSLOPING FLOW WILL PRODUCE MAX TEMPS IN LOW-MID 70S. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THUR...LONG TERM PERIOD WILL FEATURE DRY AND COOL CONDITIONS FOR THE WEEKEND WITH SLIGHT SHOWER CHANCES FOR THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK. COLD FRONT PASSES THROUGH FRI AS GREAT LAKES TROUGH AMPLIFIES AS IT QUICKLY PROGRESSES THROUGH NEW ENGLAND. TEMPS WILL DROP STEADILY FRI NIGHT...ENDING UP IN THE 40S MOST LOCALES...WITH 50S ON THE IMMEDIATE COAST. STRONG COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL MAKE FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS FOR THE OUTER BANKS WITH NORTH WINDS 15 MPH GUSTING TO 20 MPH FRI NIGHT. COOL HIGH PRES BUILDS IN SAT WITH PLEASANTLY DRY CONDITIONS AND TEMPS BELOW CLIMO...GENERALLY IN THE 65 TO 70 DEGREE RANGE. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES SUPPORT THE COOLER ECMWF GUIDANCE VALUES. UPR RIDING COMMENCES ALOFT SAT NIGHT...THOUGH DRY SFC HIGH PRES WILL REMAIN RIDGING ACROSS E NC LEADING TO ANOTHER CHILLY NIGHT WITH LOWS IN THE 40S...WITH 50S NEAR THE COAST. SEASONABLY WARM TEMPS ON SUN AS RETURN FLOW DEVELOPS IN THE LOW LEVELS. MAX TEMPS GENERALLY IN THE MID 70S EXPECTED. BOTH 12Z/11 OPER GFS AND ECMWF IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON NEXT COLD FRONT TO PASS THROUGH THE REGION LATE MON BRINGING NEXT CHANCE OF PRECIP. KEPT POPS LIMITED TO JUST SLIGHT CHANCE ATTM...AS SNDGS STILL INDICATING DRY MID LEVELS DESPITE THE DECENT FORCING. SHOULD PRECIP MATERIALIZE... THERE IS THE SMALL CHANCE FOR THUNDER AS WEAK INSTABILITY WILL BE PRESENT. SOME MODEL DIFF BEYOND TUE...AS GFS SLOW TO EXIT FRONTAL BOUNDARY... AND KEEPS IN CLOUDS AND LIGHT ISENTROPIC RAIN SHOWERS. HOWEVER... THIS SOLN LOOKS UNLIKELY...AS OPERATIONAL ECM AS WELL AS ECM/NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN HEIGHT FIELDS INDICATE MORE PROGRESSIVE SYSTEM. LEFT FCST DRY TUE AND WED AS A RESULT...WITH TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL LEVELS. && .AVIATION /03Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY/... EXPECT VFR CONDITIONS FOR MOST OF THE TAF PERIOD WITH STRONG HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE AREA. SHALLOW FOG HAS DEVELOPED AT PGV AND EXPECT FOG WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THIS LOCATION WITH IFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT. PATCHY FOG MAY ALSO DEVELOP AT THE OTHER TAF LOCATIONS LATE TONIGHT BUT SHUD HAVE LIMITED IMPACT ON AIRPORT OPS SO WILL LEAVE OUT OF TAFS FOR NOW. ANY FOG BURNS OFF QUICKLY AFTER SUNRISE FRIDAY WITH MAINLY CLEAR SKIES EXPECTED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THUR...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS FRI NIGHT THROUGH THE WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. CANNOT RULE OUT BRIEF PERIODS OF MVFR OR IFR BR SAT AND SUN NIGHTS...AS HIGH PRES WILL BRING LIGHT WINDS AND MAINLY CLEAR SKIES. YET ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH LATE MON BRINGING MAINLY JUST AN INC IN CLOUDS...THOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A SHOWER OR TSTORM WITH THIS FRONTAL PASSAGE. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... LIGHT N/NE WINDS CONTINUE LATE THIS EVE WITH HIGH PRES BUILDING INTO THE WATERS. WINDS WILL BACK TO NW INTO FRIDAY...THEN ANOTHER CAA SURGE BEHIND INCOMING COLD FRONT EXPECTED TO SPREAD N TO S ACROSS THE WATERS LATE FRI AFTN. A PERIOD OF SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CONDITIONS LIKELY BY FRI EVENING CONTINUING INTO SATURDAY BEFORE WINDS/SEAS DIMINISH/SUBSIDE WITH HIGH PRESSURE RETURNING TO THE AREA SAT AFTN. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THUR...STRONG CAA WILL SURGE SOUTH FRI NIGHT...WITH N WINDS INC TO SMALL CRAFT CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE WATERS AND BOTH SOUNDS BY EARLY EVENING. WINDS WILL GUST ABOVE 25 KT THROUGH EARLY SAT MORNING...WITH SEAS BUILDING TO 6 TO 7 FEET FOR OUTER CENTRAL AND NORTHERN WATERS...AND AROUND 6 FEET FOR THE SOUTHERN WATERS. WINDS SLOWLY DIMINISH BELOW SCA BY SAT AFTERNOON...THOUGH ELEVATED SEAS WILL LINGER THROUGH SAT AFTERNOON FOR THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN WATERS. HIGH PRES WILL SLIDE OFFSHORE SAT NIGHT WITH WINDS BECOMING EASTERLY THEN SOUTHEASTERLY...GENERALLY IN THE 10 KT RANGE. SW WINDS EXPECTED SUN INTO MON 10 TO 15 KT...AHEAD OF NEXT COLD FRONT THAT WILL MOVE THROUGH LATER MON. WINDS TURN ABRUPTLY NORTH MON NIGHT INTO TUE AND COULD AGAIN REACH SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY CRITERIA. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 11 AM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ130-135. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 6 PM FRIDAY TO 2 PM EDT SATURDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154-156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...TL AVIATION...BTC/TL/BM MARINE...JBM/BTC/TL