901 
FXUS63 KFGF 111519 AAA
AFDFGF

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GRAND FORKS ND
1019 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012

.DISCUSSION...ONLY MINIMAL CHANGES NEEDED TO THE FORECAST FOR
TODAY. HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE REGION. MID-HIGH
LEVEL CLOUDS ACROSS THE SOUTHERN FA A BIT SLOW TO CLEAR...BUT
SHOULD BE GONE BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON. THE ONLY OTHER CONCERN
WILL BE LAKE EFFECT CLOUDS/SHOWERS FROM LAKE WINNIPEG AND POSSIBLY
LAKE OF THE WOODS THAT WOULD AFFECT THE FAR NE FA (WHICH CURRENT
FORECAST HANDLES WELL).

&&

.AVIATION...EXPECT VFR TODAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
AREA. COULD BE AFTERNOON CU DEVELOPMENT AROUND 5000 FEET. 

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 410 AM CDT THU OCT 11 2012/ 

SHORT TERM...
MINIMAL CHALLENGES IN THE FORECAST FOR THE SHORT TERM THIS
MORNING. 00Z MODELS IN GOOD AGREEMENT AND INITIALIZE WITHOUT
ERRORS...USED A BLEND FOR THE FORECAST LEANING TOWARD THE
GFS/ECMWF/NAM SOLNS FOR SATURDAY AND AWAY FROM THE WETTER OR
FARTHER NORTH GEM. 

500MB NW FLOW WILL ESCORT A SFC HIGH PRESSURE INTO THE AREA TODAY
FROM ALBERTA. WITH CONVECTIVE TEMPS NEAR 40F WILL SEE CU DEVELOP
AND BECOME BKN THEN SCT AS PWATS DECREASE DURING THE DAY TO TWO
TENTHS. THE LAKE OF THE WOODS AREA MAY SEE SOME SHOWER ACTIVITY
FROM A LAKE ENHANCED BAND OF PCPN ORIGINATING FROM LAKE
WINNIPEG...SO KEPT THE INHERITED POPS THERE. CENTER OF HIGH
SETTLES IN OVER THE SE CWFA OVERNIGHT WITH RETURN FLOW BEGINNING
IN THE NW AREAS AFTER 06Z. SHOULD SEE THE COLDEST TEMPS OVER THE
FERGUS FALLS...WADENA...ELBOW LAKES AREA AS THEY SHOULD EXPERIENCE
THE LONGEST IDEAL RADIATIVE COOLING SET UP.

STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT SETS UP IN THE AFOREMENTIONED RETURN FLOW
FRIDAY ACROSS THE CWFA WITH DEPARTING 1032MB HIGH AND DEVELOPING LOW
PRESSURE IN THE HIGH PLAINS. VALLEY WEST SHOULD SEE A NEARLY
ADIABATIC LAPSE RATE WITH THE POTENTIAL TO EFFICIENTLY MIX TO JUST
ABOVE 900MB WHERE MODEL SOUNDINGS HAVE 30 TO 35 KTS. WILL NEED TO
MONITOR FOR WIND ADVSY OR GIVEN THE DRY CONDITIONS FIRE WEATHER
HEADLINES. NOT AN IDEAL WARMING WIND REGIME WITH DUE SOUTH SFC WINDS
FOR THE RRV...HIGHS SHOULD SLOWLY REACH THE LOW 50S VALLEY AND
WEST AND COOLER IN THE TREES AND LAKES REGION OF MN.

WAA IN THE RETURN FLOW WILL ALLOW 850MB TEMPS TO INCREASE ABOUT 15
C BY 12Z SATURDAY....ALLOWING TEMPS TO BE NEAR NORMAL...UPPER 50S
TO NEAR 60F. KEPT THE CHC POPS IN THE FAR SOUTH SATURDAY AS
MODELS STILL INCONSISTENT WITH ITS NORTHERN PLACEMENT OF QPF WITH
THE TRACK OF THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM TO MOVE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS. THE SYSTEM REMAINS PROGRESSIVE AND POPS END SAT 6Z.

LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

FLATTENED LONG WAVE RIDGE OVER THE WEST COAST AT THE BEGINNING OF 
THE PERIOD SHIFTS OVER THE NORTHERN PLAINS/SOUTHERN CANADA BY MON. 
FOR THE REST OF THE PERIOD A BROAD LONG WAVE TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE 
CENTRAL US. MODELS IN REASONABLE AGREEMENT AT THE BEGINNING OF THE 
PERIOD. THE NAM AND GEM WERE FASTER THAN THE GFS AND ECMWF. PATTERN 
BECOMES OUT OF PHASE BY TUE THEN CORRECTS BY WED.  THE GFS HAS A  
HIGHER AMPLITUDE TROUGH OVER THE REGION THAN THE ECMWF. WILL BLEND 
THE ECMWF AND GFS. 

THE GFS HAS TRENDED TO A SLOWER SOLUTION OVER THE LAST COUPLE MODEL 
RUNS. WILL TAKE OUT POPS SUN NIGHT. RAISED TEMPS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR 
ABOUT EVERY PERIOD. 

&&

.FGF WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ND...NONE.
MN...NONE.
&&

$$
TG