605 FXUS65 KBOI 110245 AFDBOI AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID 845 PM MDT WED OCT 10 2012 .DISCUSSION...A FEW HIGH CLOUDS HAVE BARELY EKED THEIR WAY INTO SOUTHWEST IDAHO ALONG THE BORDER WITH NEVADA...BUT OTHERWISE WE REMAIN CLEAR WITH LIGHT WINDS. THE BIG CHANGE IS STILL ON TRACK FOR THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK. NO CHANGES AT THIS TIME. && .AVIATION...VFR. SKIES WILL BE CLEAR EXCEPT FOR VARIABLE HIGH CLOUDS NEAR THE NEVADA BORDER. SURFACE WINDS...LIGHT AND VARIABLE. WINDS ALOFT...WEST UP TO 20 KTS AT 10K FEET MSL. && .PREV DISCUSSION... SHORT TERM...SLOW WARMING TREND WILL PEAK ON FRIDAY. REX BLOCK IN THE ERN PACIFIC WILL END FRIDAY AND MOIST WESTERLY FLOW WILL BREAK THROUGH BETWEEN 40N AND 50N. UPPER LOW IN SRN CALIF THURSDAY WILL TRACK ACROSS SRN NEVADA AND SRN UTAH FRIDAY. LOW WILL PASS CLOSE ENOUGH TO OUR CWA FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS IN SRN TWIN FALLS COUNTY AND SRN OWYHEE COUNTY FRIDAY. TREND HAS BEEN TO GRADUALLY SHIFT NRN EDGE OF SHOWERS NORTHWARD. PREFERRED NAM HAS ENOUGH INSTABILITY FOR A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDER ALONG THE NV/ID BORDER FRIDAY AFTERNOON. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WILL SPREAD OVER THE SRN THIRD OF OUR CWA AS THE LOW MOVES PAST. MOSTLY CLEAR ELSEWHERE. LONG TERM...FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS STILL SHOW THE UPPER LEVEL LOW QUICKLY EXITING THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN TO EAST OF THE ROCKIES FRIDAY NIGHT AHEAD OF STRENGTHENING WESTERLY FLOW ALOFT OVER THE NORTHWEST CONUS. A DISTURBANCE EMBEDDED IN THIS FLOW WILL PASS QUICKLY OVER NORTHERN AND CENTRAL IDAHO ON SATURDAY. JET ENERGY AND MOISTURE PLUS OROGRAPHIC LIFT WILL ENSURE MODERATE AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION FOR THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THOSE AREAS. LOCATIONS SOUTH OF BAKER COUNTY OREGON AND THE WEST CENTRAL IDAHO MOUNTAINS WILL SEE ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION. SNOW LEVELS WILL BE NEAR 9000 FEET MSL. WEAK RIDGING SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY WILL SUPPORT MAINLY DRY WEATHER FROM BURNS TO THE BOISE MOUNTAINS AND SOUTHWARD. SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY THE NEXT SYSTEM WILL SPREAD PRECIPITATION FURTHER SOUTH...WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE AS FAR AS NORTHERN NEVADA. MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY ZONAL FLOW WILL CONTINUE CHANCE CATEGORY PRECIPITATION OVER OUR HIGHER NORTHERN TERRAIN...WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS. CLOUDS AND SHOWERS WILL KEEP DAYTIME TEMPERATURES COOL ON SATURDAY AND MONDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHERN AREAS. OTHERWISE HIGHS WILL BE NEAR NORMAL WITH LOWS AVERAGING AROUND 5 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. && .BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ID...NONE. OR...NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/BOISE DISCUSSION...SP AVIATION.....CB PREV SHORT TERM...LC PREV LONG TERM....JT/WH