452 
FXUS63 KFSD 051435
AFDFSD

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR SOUTHEAST SD/SOUTHWEST MN/NORTHWEST IA
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SIOUX FALLS SD
935 AM CDT FRI OCT 5 2012

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 935 AM CDT/
HIGH CLOUDS STREAMING NORTHEAST ACROSS SOUTHEAST CWA WILL KEEP SKIES 
MOSTLY CLOUDY THERE TODAY. OTHERWISE...WILL BE A COOL DAY WITH HIGHS 
ONLY NEAR 50. WINDS WILL ALSO PICK UP WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH OUT 
OF THE NORTHWEST. ONLY MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO GRIDS EXPECTED.

&&

.AVIATION.../FOR THE 12Z TAF ISSUANCE/
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. NORTHWEST WINDS EXPECTED 
THROUGH PERIOD. GUSTS OF 20-25KTS EXPECTED TO BECOME MORE WIDESPREAD 
DURING THE LATE MORNING/AFTERNOON...WITH SPEEDS QUICKLY DIMINISHING 
AGAIN TOWARD SUNSET/00Z SATURDAY.

&&

.DISCUSSION.../ISSUED AT 355 AM CDT/
ANOTHER COOL AND BREEZY DAY IN STORE TODAY UNDER THE CONTINUED 
INFLUENCE OF BRISK NORTHWEST FLOW. WHILE SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE 
BEGINS BUILDING INTO THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS...A DECENT GRADIENT 
AND PERSISTENT COLD AIR ADVECTION SHOULD KEEP WINDS IN THE 15 TO 25 
MPH RANGE WITH SOME GUSTS TO 30 MPH. STRONGEST WINDS WILL BE IN THE 
BUFFALO RIDGE AREA. SOME STRATUS SHOULD BUILD INTO THE MISSOURI 
VALLEY THIS MORNING AND WILL KEEP THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE FORECAST 
AREA UNDER MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES. HIGHS WILL ONLY BE IN THE UPPER 40S 
TO LOWER 50S.

THE BROAD UPPER TROUGH OVER THE GREAT LAKES AREA IS EXPECTED TO DROP 
A WAVE SOUTHEASTWARD THROUGH THE REGION LATE TONIGHT INTO SATURDAY. 
THE MAIN IMPACT WILL BE A REINFORCING SHOT OF COLD AIR AND ANOTHER 
MOSTLY CLOUDY DAY FOR THE BULK OF THE FORECAST AREA. MODELS DO HINT 
AT SOME LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE MOVING THROUGH SOUTHWEST MINNESOTA INTO 
THE IOWA LAKES AREA WITH THE ARRIVAL OF THE MID LEVEL WAVE...SO WILL 
CONTINUE TO LEAVE MENTION OF SOME SCATTERED FLURRIES THROUGH THE 
MORNING HOURS IN THIS AREA.  FRIDAY AND SATURDAY NIGHT LOWS WILL BE 
IN THE 20S WITH HIGHS ON SATURDAY ONLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 40S.  
COULD EVEN SEE A FEW TEENS ON SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE KHON/JAMES RIVER 
AREA.

WINDS FINALLY TURN MORE SOUTHWESTERLY ON SUNDAY...WHICH WILL ALLOW 
THE AIRMASS TO MODERATE AND WARM AIR TO BEGIN ADVECTING INTO THE 
AREA. MONDAY APPEARS TO BE THE WARMEST DAY OF THE PERIOD WITH HIGHS 
POTENTIALLY WARMING INTO THE 60S WITH STRONG WEST SOUTHWEST FLOW 
AHEAD OF THE NEXT FRONT. STILL LOOKING AT A FEW KEY DIFFERENCES IN 
THE LONG RANGE MODELS WITH REGARDS TO A FEW WAVES WHICH DROP THROUGH 
THE NORTHERN PLAINS MID WEEK. THERE IS SOME POTENTIAL FOR LIGHT 
PRECIPITATION AROUND THE TUESDAY TIME FRAME...HOWEVER WITH WITH SOME 
DISCREPANCIES IN THE TRACK AND TIMING...AS WELL AS OUR VERY DRY LOW 
LEVELS...WILL LEAVE OUT MENTION OF ANY POPS AT THIS TIME. 
TEMPERATURES ARE ON THE COOL SIDE...LIKELY NEAR OR JUST BELOW 
NORMALS.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IA...NONE.
MN...NONE.
NE...NONE.
SD...NONE.

&&

$$