361 FXUS65 KTFX 040452 AFDTFX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT 1052 PM MDT WED OCT 3 2012 UPDATED AVIATION .UPDATE...LOOKS LIKE PRECIPITATION IS RAMPING DOWN ACROSS THE REGION WITH SOME CLEARING ALREADY OCCURRING IN MY FAR NORTHWEST ZONES. HAVE GONE AHEAD AND DROPPED THE WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY AND LOWERED POPS SOMEWHAT. AM STILL EXPECTING ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS BUT ACCUMULATIONS WILL LIKELY BE QUITE LIGHT. PER THE MENTION OF CLEARING SKIES HAVE ALSO MADE SOME TWEAKS TO SKY CONDITION TO BE MORE IN LINE WITH LATEST SATELLITE TRENDS. AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN A FEW PLACES OVERNIGHT BUT AM NOT EXPECTING WIDESPREAD REDUCED VISIBILITIES. IT APPEARS THAT THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING COULD SEE MORE WIDESPREAD AND POSSIBLY DENSE FOG BUT WILL LEAVE FORECAST AS-IS FOR NOW AND WILL LET THE MIDNIGHT SHIFT TAKE ANOTHER LOOK AS THE NEW MODEL RUNS COME IN OVERNIGHT. MPJ && .AVIATION... UPDATED 0500Z. RAIN AND SNOW SHOWERS HAVE GENERALLY DIMINISHED THIS EVENING WITH IMPROVING CIGS AND VIS TO VFR CATEGORY FOR EACH TAF SITE EXCEPT KLWT WHERE LOW CLOUDS CONTINUE TO PERSIST. WITH IMPROVING CEILINGS AND BREAKS IN CLOUD COVER EXPECTED OVERNIGHT...AREAS OF FOG WILL LIKELY DEVELOP AFTER 08Z SO HAVE ADDED VCFG TO ALL SITES. FOG MAY REDUCE VIS/CIGS TO IFR CATEGORY AT TIMES THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. LIGHT NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD AND WIDESPREAD MOUNTAIN OBSCURATION WILL CONTINUE. MLV && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 257 PM MDT WED OCT 3 2012/ TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY...A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE EASTERN PACIFIC AND KEEP THE ZONES UNDERNEATH UNSETTLED FLOW ALOFT THROUGH FRIDAY. THE LOW LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW MOVING SOUTH ACROSS THE CANADIAN BORDER WILL WEAKEN TONIGHT AND PRECIPITATION WILL TAPER OFF. MOST PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES AND ADJACENT PLAINS HAS HALTED AND THE HIGH LIGHTS FOR THOSE AREAS WILL BE REMOVED. THE ADVISORIES WILL CONTINUE ELSEWHERE. A SHORTWAVE IN THE FLOW ALOFT WILL MOVE OVER THE ROCKIES THURSDAY BUT MOST OF THE DYNAMICS WILL REMAIN WEST OF THE DIVIDE. A SECOND SHORTWAVE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY. THIS WILL HAVE MORE AFFECT ON THE LOCAL AREA ALTHOUGH THE AIRMASS WILL BE DRIER. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE IN CANADA WILL CONTINUE TO FORCE AT LEAST SOME NORTHERLY FLOW FROM CANADA THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. BY FRIDAY THE HIGH MOVES OVER EASTERN MONTANA LEAVING THE ZONES UNDER A WEAK EAST GRADIENT. CONTINUED NORTHERLY FLOW SHOULD CAUSE AREAS OF FOG TONIGHT AND THURSDAY NIGHT...ESPECIALLY THURSDAY WITH ANY CLEARING. ZELZER FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY...MODELS CONTINUE TO BRING A TROUGH IN OVER NORTH-CENTRAL MONTANA EARLY FRIDAY. ISOLATED LIGHT PRECIPITATION WILL ACCOMPANY THIS TROUGH...MAINLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN...AND MAY LINGER INTO FRIDAY NIGHT. SATURDAY AND SUNDAY LOOK FAIRLY QUIET WITH SOME PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES. ANOTHER TROUGH LOOKS TO MOVE INTO NORTH CENTRAL MONTANA MID-MONDAY WITH EFFECTS LINGERING INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY. ANOTHER ROUND OF LIGHT PRECIPITATION MAY BE SEEN WITH THIS TROUGH...ESPECIALLY NEAR HIGHER TERRAIN. THE REGION SHOULD STAY UNDER A SOMEWHAT UNSTABLE NORTH NORTHWEST FLOW THROUGH THE LONG TERM AND THUS GENERALLY CLOUDY SKIES AND CHANCES FOR PRECIPITATION WILL MOVE IN AND OUT OF THE FORECAST AS MODEL RUNS SHIFT. EXPECT TEMPERATURES TO REMAIN COOL SATURDAY AND WARM UP AGAIN STARTING SUNDAY. HIGHS NEXT WEEK LOOK TO BE IN THE MID 50S TO MAYBE 60 AT MOST PLAINS LOCATIONS. LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE MID TO LOW 30S AT MOST LOCATIONS WITH A HIGH LIKELIHOOD OF MOST PLACES AT LEAST TOUCHING THE FREEZING MARK THROUGH THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... GTF 25 42 22 44 / 20 10 10 20 CTB 19 41 16 45 / 10 10 10 10 HLN 24 46 23 45 / 10 10 10 10 BZN 20 47 18 43 / 10 10 10 20 WEY 11 46 9 40 / 10 10 10 10 DLN 19 48 18 44 / 10 10 10 10 HVR 24 46 20 46 / 20 20 10 10 LWT 21 41 18 40 / 20 20 20 30 && .TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GREATFALLS