797 FXUS61 KCAR 292225 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 625 PM EDT SAT SEP 29 2012 .SYNOPSIS... INITIAL LOW PRESSURE WILL DISSIPATE AS IT MOVES INTO THE MARITIMES OVERNIGHT. ANOTHER LOW FROM SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND WILL INTENSIFY AS IT LIFTS NORTHWARD ACROSS THE REGION SUNDAY. THIS SURFACE LOW WILL BECOME CAPTURED BY AN UPPER LEVEL LOW OVER EASTERN QUEBEC SUNDAY NIGHT AND WILL THEN MOVE EAST TOWARD THE GASPE PENINSULA ON MONDAY. HIGH PRESSURE FROM CENTRAL CANADA WILL BUILD TOWARD THE REGION ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPDATE...ADJUSTED THE POPS USING THE DOWNSCALED NAM TO MOVE THE CATEGORICAL VALUES FURTHER N AND E AS DEPICTED THE BY LATEST RADAR MOSAIC. KEPT THE MENTION OF DRIZZLE IN THE FCST FOR TONIGHT. DRIZZLE SHOWING UP IN MILLINOCKET AND BANGOR PER THE LAST OBS. TEMPERATURES WERE ADJUSTED TO FIT W/THE LATEST READINGS. DEWPOINTS NEEDED ADJUSTMENTS DOWNWARD A FEW DEGREES ACROSS THE NORTH PER THE LATEST TRENDS IN THE OBS AND SOME DRIER AIR MOVING IN ACROSS THE W AND NW PORTION OF THE CWA. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... IT APPEARS THAT THE 12Z GFS FINALLY HAS A FAIR HANDLE OF THE EXIT OF THE FIRST BATCH OF RNFL OUT OF ERN PTNS OF THE FA EARLY THIS EVE AS THE FIRST WV OF SFC LOW PRES WEAKENS AS IT MOVES NE INTO THE MARITIMES. WITH SOME AREAS GETTING AN ADDITIONAL 0.25 TO 0.50 INCHES OF RAINFALL. IN THE WAKE OF THIS RAINFALL...SCATTERED SHWRS AND PATCHY DRIZZLE CAN BE XPCTD THRU THE OVRNGT WITH NE TO E SFC WINDS LIMITING FOG PRODUCING VSBYS BLO 3SM OVR DOWNEAST AREAS LATE TNGT. THE NEXT WV OF LOW PRES MOVG NWRD FROM THE SE NEW COAST AS A STRONG S/WV ROTATES FROM THE S AXIS OF THE UPPER LOW OVR THE ERN GREAT LKS WILL BEGIN BRINGING THE SECOND BATCH OF STEADY RN TO DOWNEAST AREAS VERY LATE TNGT...SPREADING NWRD TO THE ST JOHN VLY BY ERLY AFTN SUN. MOST MODELS INCREASE THE QPF WITH THIS AREA OF RNFL AS IT MOVES NWRD ACROSS THE FA SUN...WITH SFC PRES FALLS INCREASING THE LLVL ERLY COMPONENT FLOW AND ASSOCIATED LLVL JET AND MOISTURE INFLOW AHEAD OF THE SFC LOW AS IT LIFTS NWRD ACROSS THE FA. FCST 6HRLY QPF WAS A BLEND OF DTMNSTC MODELS WITH SOME SREF AND GMOS ADDED...WITH FINAL EDITING TO ADD MORE EMPHASIS ON THE 12Z GFS FOR THE SUN 12-18Z PD. TOTAL RNFL WITH THIS SECOND BATCH WILL RANGE FROM 0.50 INCHES ALG THE DOWNEAST COAST TO OVR AN INCH FAR N...WITH LOCALLY UP TO 1.25 INCHES OVR THE FAR NW... INCLUDING LESSER CARRYOVER CONTRIBUTIONS SUN NGT AND MON. && .SHORT TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS THE STATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. ALTHOUGH THE STEADIEST RAIN SHOULD DIMINISH SUNDAY EVENING EXPECT CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES THROUGH MONDAY... ESPECIALLY DURING MONDAY AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW TRAVELS RIGHT OVERHEAD. THE UPPER LOW WILL TRACK NORTHEAST THROUGH THE MARITIMES LATER MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS WILL BRING A MAINLY DRY NORTHWEST FLOW TO THE REGION THROUGH THIS PERIOD. TEMPERATURES THROUGH THIS PERIOD WILL BE NEAR NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .LONG TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... THE EXTENDED MODELS CONTINUE BE IN GOOD AGREEMENT EARLY IN THE LONG TERM. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER OHIO...ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT WRAPPING EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC THEN SOUTH ALONG THE COAST. A WEAK HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILT ACROSS NRN NEW ENGLAND. A NEW LOW MOVING EAST ACROSS SRN CANADA NW OF LAKE SUPERIOR. BY WED MRNG THE MODELS DIVERGE A BIT. THE GFS DEVELOPS A NEW LOW ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT MOVES IT EAST INTO THE NORTH ATLANTIC. EAST OF DELMARVA..THE ECMWF ALSO DEVELOPS A NEW LOW ALONG THE TRIPLE POINT...HOWEVER THE ECMWF MOVES TO LOW TO THE DOWNEAST COAST. BOTH MODELS MAINTAIN THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ACROSS NRN ME...THE ECMWF BRINGS WRAP AROUND PCPN INTO CNTRL ME. THE GFS KEEPS THE PCPN WELL SOUTH AND WEST OF THE AREA. WED EVNG THE MODELS ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT. THE ORIGINAL LOW MOVES N INTO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...BRINGING THE REMNANTS OF THE OLD OCCLUDED FRONT INTO NH AND WRN ME. THURS MRNG THIS LOW WILL TRANSIT ACROSS NRN ME. A SECONDARY LOW OVR WI GFS...SRN CANADA ECMWF WILL MOVE EAST. BY THURS EVNG THE GFS LOW MOVES TO WRN LAKE HURON...WITH A FRONT EXTENDING SW TO SWRN MO. THE ECMWF CONTINUES TO SHOW THE LOW OVR JAMES BAY...A NEW LOW OVR CNTRL LAKE MICHIGAN...A FRONT EXTENDING WSW TO SRN IA. FRI MRNG THE GFS LOW MVS NE INTO THE SRN JAMES BAY REGION...ITS ASSOCIATED FRONT SSW TO SE MO. THE ECMWF MOVES THE LOW TO THE EAST OF HUDSON BAY...ITS FRONT EXTENDING SW THROUGH CNTRL IL...THEN SW TO CNTRL OK. BOTH MODELS INDICATING HIGHER PRESSURE ACROSS ME. FRI EVNG THE GFS OCCLUDES THE FRONT...THE LOW EAST OF JAMES BAY WITH A FRONT WRAPPED AROUND THE LOW S ALONG WRN ME...THEN SOUTH ALONG THE APPALACHIANS. THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE MOVING EAST OF THE AREA...A NEW HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE NRN PLAINS. THE ECMWF STOPS THE PROGRESSION OF THE FRONT OVER THE GREAT LAKES. MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE OVR ME...ALSO INDICATES THAT A SECOND HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE BUILDING SOUTH OUT OF WRN CANADA INTO THE CNTRL PLAINS. SAT MRNG THE GFS COLD FRONT OVR ERN ME...SOUTH INTO THE COASTAL WATERS TO THE EAST OF CAPE COD. THE HIGHER PRESSURE OVR THE PLAINS BUILDS SE TO THE ATLANTIC COAST. THE ECMWF MOVES THE FRONT TO THE ERN GREAT LAKES REGION...MAINTAINS THE HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST...BUILDS THE PLAINS HIGH INTO THE MID-WEST. SAT EVNG THE GFS MOVES THE FRONT EAST OF ME...BUILDS HIGH ACROSS ME. BY THE END OF THE PERIOD THE GFS MOVES THE COLD FRONT THROUGH THE AREA...BUILDS HIGHER PRESSURE INTO ME. THE ECMWF MOVES THE WARM FRONT ACROSS WRN ME...BUILDS THE HIGH PRESSURE TO ERN QUEBEC. LOADED GMOS... ADJUSTED POP GRIDS USING GMOS/ECMWF BLEND THROUGH THE CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE EXTENDED PERIOD. MADE MINOR ADJUSTMENTS TO SKY AND POPS THROUGH THE PERIOD. POPS TO HIGH FOR THE SKYCON FORECAST. LOADED NAWAVE 4 FOR SEAS IN THE COASTAL WATERS. ADDED 20 PERCENT FOR WNDS OVR THE WATERS...15 PERCENT OVR LAND. && .AVIATION /00Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... NEAR TERM: MSLY IFR ALL TAF SITES WITH LOW CLGS...RNFL AND/OR PATCHY DRIZZLE AND FOG TNGT THRU SUN...WITH BRIEF MVFR POSSIBLE ATTMS. SHORT TERM: EXPECT MVFR CONDITIONS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY WITH SHOWERS AND CIGS. MAINLY VFR MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY EXCEPT MVFR CIGS STILL PSBL AT TIMES NRN TERMINALS. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: WINDS HAVE SUBSIDED...BUT WV HTS STILL CONT ABV 5 FT OVR OUTER MZS. WE WERE ABLE TO DROP THE SCA FOR INNER HARBOR/BAY MZ052. WE ANTICIPATE WVS TO DROP BLO 5 FT LATER THIS EVE ALLOWING FOR THE EXPIRATION OF THE REMAINING PTN OF THE SCA OVR THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS AND WVS SHOULD THEN REMAIN BLO SCA FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE OVRNGT THRU SUN. WE HAD TO GO ABV WW3 GUIDANCE BY 1 TO 2 FT FOR WV HTS EARLY THIS EVE...THEN WE BLEND BACK TO GUIDANCE BY LATE TNGT AND CONT WITH GUIDANCE THRU SUN. SHORT TERM: SCA CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE...MAINLY FOR SEAS SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT...THEN DROP BELOW SCA ON TUESDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 8 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR ANZ050- 051. && $$ NEAR TERM...HEWITT/VJN SHORT TERM...DUDA LONG TERM...NORTON AVIATION...HEWITT/VJN MARINE...HEWITT/VJN/DUDA