064 FXUS61 KRLX 271359 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 959 AM EDT MON AUG 27 2012 .SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT CROSSES MONDAY NIGHT. ISAAC MAY BE A PLAYER THIS WEEKEND. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... FRONT PROGRESSING THROUGH CENTRAL IN/SOUTHERN IL AT THIS TIME. MAIN CHANGE WAS TO SLOW DOWN THE INCREASE IN CLOUDS/POPS A BIT FURTHER. RAIN SLATED TO ARRIVE IN THE SE OHIO COUNTIES AROUND 16Z...BUT MOST MODELS THIN OUT THIS PRECIP SOMEWHAT AS VORT MAX PASSING NEAR CLE STARTS TO ASSERT MORE CONTROL. STILL HAVE LIKELY POPS THIS AFTERNOON IN THE NORTHWEST CWA COUNTIES BUT DID DROP THEM A BIT. STILL DO NOT FORESEE MUCH OF A THUNDER THREAT...AND RAIN GAGES WILL NOT SEE TOO MUCH WATER FROM THE FRONT OVERALL. HIGH TEMPERATURES LOOK GOOD...GIVEN EXPECTED TEMPS OFF MORNING SOUNDINGS SHAVED BACK A TOUCH BY CLOUD INCREASE. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... MODELS AGREE AFTER WEAK COOL FRONT EXITS TO THE SOUTH LATER TUESDAY...TAKING ANY LINGERING LIGHT SHOWERS WITH IT...BROAD HIGH PRESSURE WITH WARM AND DRY CONDITIONS WILL DOMINATE LATER TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY. ONLY SLIGHT COOLING FOR MAX TEMPS BEHIND THIS FRONT...THANKS MUCH TO ABUNDANT SUNSHINE...ESPECIALLY WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. LOOK FOR TEMPS TO CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL BY DAY...BUT COOL AT NIGHT...RESULTING IN A LARGE RANGE IN DIURNAL TEMPERATURES. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... FOR THIS PERIOD...ALL DEPENDS ON THE TRACK AND SPEED OF THE REMAINS OF ISSAC. WHILE MODELS DO DIFFER IN THE EVENTUAL APPROACH OF THIS SYSTEM...LOOKS LIKE THE WEEKEND WILL BE ON THE WET SIDE. FRIDAY IS MORE OF A QUESTION MARK DEPENDING ON THE MODEL USED FOR ONSET OF PRECIP FROM ISSAC...WILL BRING IN PRECIP LATER FRIDAY PER MODEL CONSENSUS. TEMPS WILL CONTINUE TO BE AT OR ABOVE NORMAL FRIDAY...BUT MAY BE COOLER OVER THE WEEKEND IF THE RAIN EFFECTS OF ISSAC ARE SIGNIFICANT. && .AVIATION /14Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... LOWERING CEILINGS AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT...WITH SHOWERS AND A FEW STORMS EMBEDDED WITHIN TODAY. KEEP THE TAFS VFR...AND ONLY CARRY VCTS/CB AT PKB. BY THE TIME THE FRONT REACHES OTHER SITES FURTHER SOUTH AND EAST... COVERAGE OF THE CONVECTION SHOULD BE DECREASING. THIS WILL OCCUR AFTER 00Z TUESDAY. SHOWERS CAN NOT BE RULED OUT COMPLETELY OVERNIGHT...BUT DO NOT WARRANT PREVAILING CONDITIONS. MAY NEED AN MVFR TEMPO HERE AND THERE IN FUTURE ISSUANCES...BUT RIGHT NOW...THAT IS OUT OF THE SCOPE OF TEMPO CATEGORIES. NO FOG TONIGHT WITH CLOUD COVER IN PLACE. PKB AND HTS MAY CLEAR OUT BY MORNING...BUT WOULD ONLY HEIGHTEN THE FOG CHANCES WITH RAINFALL OCCURRING DURING THE DAY TODAY. OTHERWISE...IT IS LIKELY TOO DRY IN THIS EXTENDED DRY PERIOD. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MAY NEED MVFR TEMPO AT PKB IN SHRA/TSRA TODAY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 EDT 1HRLY 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JMV/26 NEAR TERM...CL SHORT TERM...JMV LONG TERM...ARJ/JMV AVIATION...26