684 FXUS65 KLKN 061716 AFDLKN AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ELKO NV 1016 AM PDT MON AUG 6 2012 .SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST KEEPING DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEK. && .UPDATE...LATEST 12Z MODEL GUIDANCE EXPANDS AREA OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY FURTHER WEST TODAY THEN PREVIOUS RUNS. THEREFORE UPDATED FORECASTS TO EXPAND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS COVERAGE INTO MOST OF THE FORECAST AREA EXCEPT FOR HUMBOLDT COUNTY. && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED AT 200 AM / SYNOPSIS...RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL ALLOW ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO REDEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA THIS AFTERNOON. COVERAGE WILL BE LIMITED AND RESTRICTED TO THE HIGHER TERRAIN. MONSOON MOISTURE WILL PERSIST KEEPING DAILY THUNDERSTORM CHANCES IN THE FORECAST THROUGH THIS WEEK. SHORT TERM...TODAY AND TUESDAY. SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED THE IMPRESSIVE LIGHTNING OUTBREAK ON SUNDAY IS LIFTING NORTH AWAY FROM NEVADA THIS MORNING. MUCH DRIER AIR ALOFT INVADING BEHIND THIS FEATURE AS SHOWN ON WATER VAPOR IMAGERY. SURFACE MOISTURE REMAINS HOWEVER WITH DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S FOR MUCH OF NORTHERN NEVADA EARLY THIS MORNING. TODAY...WILL BE MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. THAT SAID...ANOTHER ROUND OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON FOR EASTERN NEVADA. EXPANDED ISOLATED THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...SIMILAR TO WHAT THE 00Z NAM DEPICTS. THE NAM MODEL PERFORMED VERY WELL WITH SUNDAY'S LIGHTNING OUTBREAK...SO THE SHORT TERM FOLLOWS THE NAM SOLUTIONS CLOSELY. EXPECT ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP IN ELKO...WHITE PINE...AND EUREKA COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON. THE STRONG FORCING WE HAD WITH THE SHORTWAVE YESTERDAY IS GONE...REPLACED BY HIGH PRESSURE REBUILDING OVERHEAD. THEREFORE...COVERAGE WILL BE MUCH REDUCED FROM THAT SEEN ON SUNDAY. THUNDERSTORMS THAT DO FORM TODAY WILL BE DEPENDENT ON OROGRAPHICS AND WILL TEND TO HUG THE TERRAIN. 700 MB FLOW REDUCES TO 0-5 KTS UNDER THE STRENGTHENING HIGH THIS AFTERNOON...SO STORMS WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE. RESIDUAL MOISTURE LEVELS ARE MARGINAL WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES MUCH LESS THAN 0.70 INCH FOR MOST OF NEVADA...SO NOT EXPECTING ANY FLOODING ISSUES DESPITE THE SLOW MOVEMENT. WILL LIKELY SEE A FEW MOUNTAINS PICK UP A BIT OF RAIN TODAY BUT VIRGA WILL PREVAIL IN THE VALLEYS. HEIGHTS AND THICKNESSES CLIMB TODAY UNDER THE BUILDING RIDGE ADDING 2-5 DEGREES TO AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES COMPARED TO SUNDAY. TUESDAY...HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE GAINS MORE STRENGTH...BUILDING TO A 596 DM UPPER HIGH CENTERED NEAR ELKO TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES CLIMB ANOTHER 2-4 DEGREES IN RESPONSE...FORECASTING A HIGH OF 98 AT ELKO AND 100-103 ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS NEAR WINNEMUCCA AND BATTLE MOUNTAIN. VERY MARGINAL MOISTURE TRAPPED IN THE RIDGE CIRCULATION WILL ALLOW FOR A FEW MORE ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA TUESDAY AFTERNOON. AGAIN...COVERAGE WILL BE VERY ISOLATED AND FAVOR THE MOUNTAINS. BT LONG TERM...TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY. MODELS IN AGREEMENT WITH GENERAL OVERALL PATTERN. MODELS CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN A NEARLY STATIONARY HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS REGION BRINGING MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY TO CENTRAL AND EASTERN NEVADA EACH AFTERNOON NEXT WEEK FOR ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS. DRIER AND MORE STABLE AIR IS EXPECTED ACROSS WESTERN HUMBOLDT COUNTY. STILL EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TO BE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD...WITH HIGHS ACROSS NORTHERN NEVADA IN THE UPPER 90S TO LOW 100S AND IN THE LOW TO MID 90S ACROSS CENTRAL NEVADA. JH AVIATION...MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES EARLY THIS MORNING...THEN INCREASING CLOUDS OVER KEKO AND KELY LATER MORNING. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED OVER MOST OF EASTERN NEVADA THROUGH EARLY THIS EVENING ..MAINLY IMPACTING KELY AND KEKO. JH FIRE WEATHER...MUCH QUIETER THAN YESTERDAY. SHORTWAVE THAT PRODUCED APPROXIMATELY 5000 LIGHTNING STRIKES IN THE FIRE DISTRICT SUNDAY IS LIFTING NORTH AND AWAY FROM NEVADA THIS MORNING. MARGINAL RESIDUAL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL BE LEFT BEHIND TODAY RESULTING IN WEAK INSTABILITY AND ANOTHER ROUND OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS. FORCING IS MUCH REDUCED FROM THAT SEEN ON SUNDAY. ANY STORMS TODAY WILL TEND TO FORM NEAR...AND REMAIN NEAR...THE MOUNTAINS OF ELKO...WHITE PINE AND EUREKA COUNTIES. FLOW WILL BE VERY WEAK SO CONVECTION WILL MOVE VERY LITTLE AND LIKELY HUG THE TERRAIN. MOST STORMS WILL BE DRY WITH ANY LIGHT RAIN RELEGATED TO MOUNTAINS ABOVE 7000 FEET. WITH LIMITED MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY...LESS FORCING AND VERY LITTLE STORM MOVEMENT EXPECTED...ELECTED TO NOT ISSUE ANY FIRE WEATHER HEADLINES FOR TODAY. FIRE CREWS CAN EXPECT ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES ON THE JARBIDGE MTNS...THE RUBY MTNS...AND NEAR GREAT BASIN NATIONAL PARK THIS AFTERNOON. TUESDAY...MARGINAL MONSOON MOISTURE WILL RECYCLE WITH VERY ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS AGAIN OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF EASTERN NEVADA. SAME MOUNTAINS CAN EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED LIGHTNING STRIKES. VERY LITTLE COVERAGE...NO HEADLINES PLANNED. WEDNESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY...STATIONARY UPPER HIGH NEAR THE FOUR CORNERS WILL ENSURE LOW TO MODERATE AMOUNTS OF MONSOON MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST ACROSS EASTERN NEVADA. DAILY CHANCES OF ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE. BT && .LKN WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NONE. && $$ 91/87/99