169 
FXUS66 KLOX 052132
AFDLOX

SOUTHWEST CALIFORNIA AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LOS ANGELES/OXNARD CA
230 PM PDT SUN AUG 5 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A STRONG AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL MOVE OVER THE REGION THIS WEEK 
BRINGING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. THE 
WARMEST LOCATIONS WILL TOP THE CENTURY MARK. BY THE END OF THE WEEK 
THERE WILL BE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE MOUNTAINS 
AND DESERTS. 

&&

.SHORT TERM (TODAY-WED)...SUBTROPICAL LONG WAVE RIDGE OF HIGH 
PRESSURE SOUTHEAST OF THE AREA WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD NORTHWEST 
THROUGH THE PERIOD...RESULTING IN A WARMING AND DRYING TREND. 
PICTURES FROM SPACE HAD INDICATED ISOLATED BUILDUPS OVER NORTHERN 
VENTURA COUNTY AND SAN GABRIEL PEAKS AS WELL AS THE ANTELOPE VALLEY 
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. MID LEVEL CAP WILL PRECLUDE SHOWERS OVER 
VENTURA AND LOS ANGELES COUNTY MOUNTAINS BUT A WEAKER CAP WAS JUST 
EAST OF THE AREA AND A POSSIBLE BRIEF LIGHT SHOWER MAY DEVELOP AND 
SKIRT THE EASTERN PORTION AND AV THIS AFTERNOON. OTHERWISE HAVE 
ADJUSTED TEMPERTURES UP MONDAY A FEW DEGREES...WHERE HIGHS WILL 
LIKELY RANGE 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL. TEMPERATURE DIFFERENCES 
FROM THIS TIME YESTERDAY RANGED FROM 20 DEGREES AT PASO ROBLES AND 
NEARLY 10 DEGREES ELSEWHERE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS TO 5 DEGREES IN 
THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS AND DESERT. THE GREATEST TEMPERATURE CHANGE ON 
MONDAY COMPARED TO TODAY WILL CONTINUE IN THE LOWER ELEVATIONS AS 
THE MARINE AIR CONTINUES TO RETREAT. A DRY AND WARM AIR MASS WILL 
SETTLE OVER THE AREA AND TEMPERATURES WILL LIKELY PERSIST 5 TO 10 
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.     


.LONG TERM (THU-SUN)...THE SUBTROPICAL LONG WAVE RIDGE WILL BUILD 
NORTH AND RELATIVELY MOIST SOUTH WINDS WILL DEVELOP OVER THE AREA. 
GUIDANCE DIFFERED FROM PREVIOUS RUNS AS A MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW 
ROTATES AROUND THE RIDGE FRI THROUGH SUN. HAVE CONTINUED WITH A 
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE THE HIGH COUNTRY FRI AND 
HAVE INCLUDED THE ANTELOPE VALLEY...AND ALSO INCLUDE THUNDERSTORM 
ACTIVITY OVER THE PREVIOUSLY MENTIONED AREAS ON SAT AFTERNOON. IT IS 
LIKELY INLAND TEMPERATURES WILL PERSIST 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE 
NORMAL.      


&&

.AVIATION...05/1735Z...

LATEST SATELLITE SHOWS STRATUS CLEARING QUICKLY ALONG THE COAST WITH 
ALL TAF SITES EXPECTED TO HAVE VFR CONDS THROUGH THIS EVENING. LATEST
SOUNDINGS INDICATE MARINE INVERSION AROUND 1000 FEET ACROSS THE BIGHT
WITH A LITTLE BIT DEEPER INVERSION NORTH OF POINT CONCEPTION. 
OVERNIGHT WILL EXPECT THE INVERSION TO SHRINK A BIT WHICH SHOULD 
CONFINE STRATUS/FOG TO THE COASTAL TAF SITES WITH IFR/LIFR CONDS 
ANTICIPATED. 

KLAX...MODERATE CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. STRATUS RETURN TONIGHT COULD
BE +/- 2 HOURS OF CURRENT 10Z FORECAST. THERE IS A 20% CHANCE THAT
CIG/VSBY RESTRICTIONS MAY NOT DEVELOP.

KBUR...HIGH CONFIDENCE IN 18Z TAF. 

&&

.LOX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY (SEE LAXMWWLOX).

&&

$$

PUBLIC...30
AVIATION...RAT
SYNOPSIS...SWEET

WWW.WEATHER.GOV/LOSANGELES