529 FXUS62 KMHX 312348 AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 748 PM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN OVER THE AREA THROUGH MIDWEEK. A WEAK SURFACE LOW WILL MOVE NORTHEAST ALONG THE FRONT WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND WEDNESDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT WILL DISSIPATE THURSDAY AND HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND OVER THE AREA FROM OFFSHORE FRIDAY THROUGH THE MONDAY. A WEAK FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL MOVE EAST ACROSS THE CAROLINAS ON TUESDAY. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/... VERY ISOLATED SHOWERS OVER THE FCST AREA THIS EVENING BUT DEEPER CONVECTION LURKING JUST SW OF THE AREA IN THE VCNTY OF WEAK LOW PRES ON LINGERING SFC BNDRY. THIS CONVECTION SHUD GENERALLY WEAKEN WITH DAYTIME HEAT LOSS AS IT CREEPS NEWD LATER THIS EVE BUT WITH SHORT WAVE DROPPING THRU THE BASE OF THE UPPER TROF ALONG THE EASTERN SEABOARD...EXPECT ADDITIONAL SHOWERS/ISOLATED TSTMS TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT. WILL MAINTAIN HIGH CHANCE POPS OVER SW AREAS TAPERING OFF TO SLIGHT CHANCE FAR NE. STRONGER CONVECTION CUD PRODUCE HEAVY DOWNPOURS OVERNIGHT WITH HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER OVER THE AREA. LOWS TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE TO BE IN THE MUGGY LOWER 70S INLAND TO MID-UPR 70S COAST. && .SHORT TERM /6 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH 6 PM WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 400 PM TUE...LEANED TO NAM12 AND ECMWF BLEND FOR HANDLING OF SHORT WV AND SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ON WED AS GFS APPEARS OVERDONE AND TOO FAST. DEEP LIFT AND ABUNDANT MSTR SHOULD RESULT IN WDSPRD COVERAGE OF SHOWERS AND TSTMS DURING DAY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN HALF OF AREA WITH INFLOW OFF WATER. INCREASED POPS TO 50 INLAND AND 70 COAST IN LINE WITH MOS GDNC BLEND. ADJUSTED QPF ACCORDINGLY WITH UP TO 1 INCH POSSIBLE ALONG COAST. SOME STRONGER STORMS PSBL BUT MAIN THREAT WILL BE HEAVY RAIN. ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT NEAR COAST CANNOT BE RULED OUT WITH ANY CELLS ROTATING IN ALONG COAST AHEAD OF SFC LOW CENTER. MOS GDNC BIAS CORRECT FOR MAX TEMPS WITH CLOUDS AND PCPN KEEPING MAX TEMPS MAINLY LOW-MID 80S. && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 400 PM TUES...UPPER TROUGH WILL LINGER ACROSS THE EASTERN U.S. THROUGH WED NIGHT THEN BEGIN TO LIFT OUT TOWARDS THE CANADIAN MARITIMES THURS. AT THE SURFACE A COASTAL LOW WILL PUSH NORTHEAST AWAY FROM EASTERN NC WED NIGHT INTO EARLY THURS. HEAVIEST PRECIP WILL DIMINISH EARLY WED NIGHT FROM SW TO NE AS THE LOW PUSHES NE. SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST BEHIND THE EXITING LOW THURS WITH LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES NEAR 1420 METERS. MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER 90S INLAND TO MID/UPPER 80S ALONG THE COAST. PWATS WILL FALL TO AROUND 1.50-1.75 INCHES THURS BUT SFC DEWPOINTS REMAIN IN THE 70S WITH WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLIDING OFFSHORE. EXPECT GREATER INSOLATION THURS WHICH SHOULD AID IN DESTABILIZING THE ATMOSPHERE THURS AFTERNOON...THUS WILL CONTINUE MENTION OF ISOLATED STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE IN HWO. UPPER LEVEL PATTERN BECOMES ZONAL FRI WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING BACK IN ALOFT FROM THE WESTERN ATLANTIC. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE ALSO BUILDS IN FROM THE WEST AT THE SURFACE ALLOWING MOIST SOUTHERLY FLOW TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED. EXPECT DIURNAL CONVECTION FRI THROUGH THE WEEKEND INLAND AND ALONG THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY. LOW LEVEL THICKNESSES WILL PERSIST AT 1415-1420 METERS...YIELDING TEMPS IN THE LOW/MID 90S INLAND TO 80S ALONG THE COAST. A FRONTAL BOUNDARY IS PROGGED TO APPROACH THE AREA FROM THE NORTHWEST MON WITH MOIST SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AND INCREASING LOW LEVEL SHEAR AHEAD OF A ROBUST MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE MON AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH PWATS AGAIN BUILDING ABOVE 2 INCHES. THE FRONT WILL SLOWLY CROSS EASTERN NC TUES. TEMPS WILL MODERATE WITH THE FRONTAL PASSAGE...INTO THE UPPER 80S INLAND TO LOW/MID 80S ALONG THE COAST. && .AVIATION /23Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH 18Z WEDNESDAY/... AREA IS IN BETWEEN SHORT WVS EARLY WITH ONLY AN ISOLATED TSTM THREAT THRU EARLY EVENING. STRONGER SHORT WV TO W WILL AFFECT AREA OVERNIGHT INTO WED MORNING...AND ENOUGH MODEL AGREEMENT TO SUPPORT SCT-BKN COVERAGE FOR AT LEAST VCTS MENTION ALL TAF SITES. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/ AS OF 320 PM TUES...PREDOMINANT VFR AVIATION CONDITIONS EXPECTED THROUGH THE EXTENDED. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN DIURNAL CONVECTION THU-SUN. SOUTHWESTERLY SURFACE FLOW WILL PERSIST LATE WEEK INTO THE WEEKEND. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY/... LIGHT TO MODERATE S/SW FLOW WILL CONTINUE TONIGHT INTO EARLY WED...THEN WEAK SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT ALONG OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PRODUCE INCREASING WINDS S TO N OVER WATERS WED AFTN INTO WED EVE. HIGHEST SUSTAINED WINDS WILL BE AROUND 20 KT OVER OUTER PORTIONS OF SRN AND CENTRAL WATERS...BUT WILL LIKELY PRODUCE SEAS TO AROUND 6 FT THOSE AREAS...AND SCA ISSUED ACCORDINGLY. WW3 APPEARS OVERDONE WITH SEAS TO AROUND 10 FT BY LATE WED AS TOO STRONG AND TOO FAST WITH SFC LOW DEVELOPMENT. LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/ AS OF 430 PM TUES...SCA CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO LINGER IN ELEVATED SEAS FOR THE OUTER FRINGES OF THE COASTAL WATERS LATE WED NIGHT. SCAS SHOULD END BY SUNRISE THURS MORNING AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES WESTERLY BEHIND THE EXITING COASTAL LOW THURS. WINDS WILL THEN BACK TO SOUTH BY THURS AFTERNOON AND PERSIST AT SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE WEEKEND. SPEEDS WILL RANGE GENERALLY 10-15 KNOTS WITH SEAS 2 TO 3 FT NEAR SHORE AND 2 TO 4 FT FOR THE OUTER WATERS...CREATING DECENT BOATING CONDITIONS FRI THROUGH SUN. SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE EXTENDED AS WELL. WAVEWATCH III OVERDONE FOR THE FIRST FEW PERIODS OF THE EXTENDED DUE TO A STRONGER GFS WINDFIELD BUT APPEARED GOOD FOR FRI INTO SUN. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 4 PM WEDNESDAY TO 6 AM EDT THURSDAY FOR AMZ152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY FROM 2 PM WEDNESDAY TO MIDNIGHT EDT WEDNESDAY NIGHT FOR AMZ156-158. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JBM NEAR TERM...JBM/BTC SHORT TERM...JBM LONG TERM...DAG AVIATION...JBM/BTC/DAG MARINE...JBM/BTC/DAG