067 FXUS61 KRLX 310702 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 302 AM EDT TUE JUL 31 2012 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT. COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH WEDNESDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... MODELS SHOWING SUFFICIENT MOISTURE FOR AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TODAY. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE IN THE MOUNTAINS. MODELS SHOW SOME UPPER AIR DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH TONIGHT...BUT TIMING AND PLACEMENT VARIES FROM MODEL TO MODEL. THEREFORE...WILL KEEP SOME POPS TONIGHT...BUT PUT THE BEST CHANCES ALONG THE COLD FRONT RATHER THAN TRYING TO TIME THE UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE. && .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... AREA WILL CONT TO BE UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF UPR TROF WITH NW FLOW IN THE MID AND UPR LEVELS. LAGGING SFC FRONT TAKES ALL OF WED TO ATTEMPT TO CROSS CWA MORE LKLY WASHING OUT OVER UPR OH VALLEY LEAVING BEHIND AREA OF WEAK LLVL CONVERGENCE/TROF NEARBY. KEPT POPS LOW WITH THIS AS OVERALL MOISTURE DEPTH IS LACKING. HAVING SAID THAT STILL EXPECT A FEW SHRA/TSRA WITH THE BOUNDARY. SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FOR THU WITH ONLY SLIGHTLY LOWER HUMIDITY BUT REMAINING RATHER WARM. AN UPR LVL DISTURBANCE MAY DROP DOWN WITHIN UPR TROF THU NIGHT OR EARLY FRI. KEPT POPS OUT ATTM WITH OVERALL MOISTURE LACKING AMID AN UNFAVORABLE TIME FRAME. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... HEIGHTS ONCE AGAIN BUILD IN FROM THE WEST FRIDAY WITH THE BERMUDA HIGH STRENGTHENING...ALLOWING THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY TO MOVE BACK IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. CHANCES FOR STORMS INCREASE BY THE WEEKEND AS ANOTHER NORTHWEST FLOW SYSTEM AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT DROP SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD THE AREA. TEMPS WILL ALSO WARM BACK INTO THE 90S AHEAD OF THE FRONT. && .AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... PATCHY DENSE FOG CAN BE EXPECTED EARLY THIS MORNING IN AREAS THAT RECEIVED RAINFALL TODAY. OTHERWISE...SOME MVFR FOG IS POSSIBLE IN FAVORED FOG LOCATIONS. AFTERNOON AND EVENING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AGAIN TUESDAY...WITH MORE AREAL COVERAGE EXPECTED COMPARED TO MONDAY. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DENSITY OF FOG COULD VARY. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE TUE 07/31/12 UTC 1HRLY 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 EDT 1HRLY 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 CRW CONSISTENCY M L L L L L L H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY M H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L L L L L L L M H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY M M M M H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H M M H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY... BRIEF IFR POSSIBLE IN SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LATE TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...RPY SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...JMV AVIATION...RPY