045 FXUS61 KRLX 151826 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 226 PM EDT SUN JUL 15 2012 .SYNOPSIS... THUNDERSTORMS WITH HEAVY RAIN WILL MOVE ACROSS THE MID ATLANTIC STATES THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS POSSIBLE MONDAY. A FRONT SLIDES ACROSS THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH MONDAY/... RAIN WILL TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST OVERNIGHT. THIS IS IN CONJUNCTION WITH A SHORTWAVE THAT WILL TRAVEL ACROSS THE REGION. AS THIS WAVE MOVES AWAY FROM THE CWA...THE RAIN CHANCES WILL DIMINISH. PRECIP WATER REMAINS VERY HIGH WITH VALUES NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGH 03Z MON. GIVEN THIS...ANY STORM THAT DOES MOVE THROUGH THE AREA WILL BE CAPABLE OF HEAVY RAIN. WILL LEAVE THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH UP THROUGH 03Z TONIGHT. THE WORKWEEK WILL START WARM AND MUGGY ONCE AGAIN. DEWPOINTS WILL BE IN THE 70S IN THE LOWLANDS WITH UPPER 60S IN THE MOUNTAINS. ALTHOUGH PRECIP WATER VALUES WILL BE SLIGHTLY LESS...AMOUNTS STILL SHOW AROUND 1.5 INCHES. COULD SEE A FEW SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOP DURING THE DAY. HOWEVER CHANCES ARE BETTER FURTHER SOUTH IN THE CWA. OVERNIGHT LOW TEMPERATURES WILL BE IN THE 60S AND 70S. MONDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN WARM WITH HIGHS IN THE MOUNTAINS 70S AND 80S. READINGS IN AROUND AROUND 90 WILL BE LIKELY IN THE LOWLANDS. && .SHORT TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... THINGS QUITE DOWN SOME TUESDAY INTO TUESDAY NIGHT. NAM12 HAS BACKED OFF SOME ON CONVECTIVE COMPLEX TUESDAY NIGHT...BUT STILL SHOWS A HINT OF IT. STILL ONLY MODEL TO INDICATE ANY SUCH COMPLEX BUT WILL LEAVE SOME SCHC POPS IN TUESDAY NIGHT. OTHERWISE...HAVE SOME DIURNAL LOW POPS MAINLY ACROSS THE MTNS BOTH TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. SFC FRONT APPROACHES WEDNESDAY EVENING AND HAVE SOME LKLY POPS ACROSS SE INITIALLY BEFORE BACKING DOWN POPS AS BOUNDARY SLOWLY SINKS SOUTH THRU AREA. WITH PWATS SURGING AHEAD OF BAROCLINIC ZONE...DOWNPOURS APPEAR LKLY. && .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... UPR TROF AMPLIFIES OVER NE CONUS IN THE EXTENDED. SFC FRONT EXITS TO SOUTH EARLY THURSDAY...TAKING ORGANIZED THREAT FOR CONVECTION WITH IT. WILL KEEP LKLY POPS WITH THIS ACROSS SOUTHERN AREAS TO COINCIDE WITH FROPA DURING HEATING HRS. DRY AIR OVERWHELMS COLUMN LATE NEXT WEEKS WITH JUST SMALL CHANCES FOR DIURNALLY DRIVEN CONVECTION...MAINLY OVER THE MTNS. && .AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... SITES CAN EXPECT OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING HOURS. THESE STORMS WILL REDUCE VISIBILITIES TO IFR DUE TO HEAVY RAIN. WHERE RAIN DOES FALL...COULD RESULT IN FOG ONCE AGAIN OVERNIGHT. MVFR TO IFR WILL BE POSSIBLE FROM 06Z TO AROUND 12Z MON. AFTER 12Z MON...SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE AGAIN. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING AND DURATION OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY VARY FROM WHAT TAFS CURRENTLY REFLECT. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 02 03 04 05 EDT 1HRLY 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 00 01 CRW CONSISTENCY H M M M M M M M M M M M HTS CONSISTENCY H H M M M M M M M M M M BKW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M M M M M M EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H M M H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H M M M H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H M M M M AFTER 18Z MONDAY... SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAY ONCE AGAIN DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN WEST VIRGINIA. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR WVZ005>008- 013>020-024>032-036>040-047. OH...NONE. KY...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 11 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR KYZ105. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JB/30 NEAR TERM...JB SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...JB