099 FXUS61 KRLX 130746 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 340 AM EDT FRI JUL 13 2012 .SYNOPSIS... UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE BRINGING NEEDED SHOWERS WITH MAYBE A RUMBLE OF THUNDER TODAY. MUGGY AIR INCREASES FOR WEEKEND...SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE AT ANY TIME...WITH LOCAL DOWNPOURS. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ON A SYNOPTIC LEVEL...MODELS AGREEING ON UPPER RIDGES TO OUR EAST AND WEST...OVER THE ATLANTIC OCEAN AND ROCKIES...WITH A WEAK TROUGH SLOWLY SLIDING OUT OF THE HIGH PLAINS INTO THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES THROUGH THE NEAR TERM PERIOD. BEING BETWEEN THE ATLANTIC RIDGE AND APPROACHING TROUGH...WILL SEE SOUTH TO SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB PUMPING IN THE MOISTURE. PWAT VALUES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR 2.00 INCHES THROUGH THE DAY ON FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY IN NORTHEAST KY...WESTERN WV...AND INTO SE OHIO. CURRENT PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH A VORT MAX SLOWLY LIFTING NORTHEAST WILL CONTINUE ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST AREA INTO THIS AFTERNOON. MODELS SHOW THE LEADING EDGE OF THE PRECIP PUSHING NORTH TODAY AS THE VORT MAX LIFTS UP...BUT MAY OUTRUN THE BETTER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE INITIALLY...SO KEEP LIKELY POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN 2/3RDS OF CWA FOR THE MOST PART. HI-RES MODELS ALSO SHOW SOME BREAKS IN THE PRECIP MOVING UP FROM THE SOUTH AFTER 12Z OR SO. TRIED TO SHOW THIS IN THE GRIDS BY DROPPING BACK INTO CHANCE POPS FOR THE SOUTHERN MOUNTAINS INTO THE COAL FIELDS FOR A TIME THIS MORNING. WITH LOTS OF LOWER LEVEL MOISTURE IN PLACE...CONTINUED CHANCE POPS THROUGH TONIGHT ACROSS THE LOWLANDS AND ALONG THE OHIO RIVER...DROPPING INTO SLIGHT CHANCE TO THE SOUTH/EAST...FARTHER FROM THE UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THE NORTH AND WEST. LOWERED HIGHS TODAY WITH THE ABUNDANCE OF CLOUDS AROUND BY BLENDING IN THE BIAS-CORRECTED CONSALL GUIDANCE. THIS GENERALLY PRODUCED NUMBERS BETWEEN THE MAV AND MET MOS. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN THE MOS FOR LOWS TONIGHT...WHICH RESULTED IN A DEGREE OR TWO COOLER THAN PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND DIURNAL VARIATIONS OF 10 DEGREES OR LESS FOR MANY LOCATIONS. && .SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT/... AS LOW LEVEL FLOW BECOMES SOUTHWEST ON SATURDAY...DEW POINTS INCREASE. MUGGY WILL BE THE RULE...AT LEAST WHEN IT IS NOT RAINING. TIMING ANY INDIVIDUAL ROUND OF CONVECTION FOR EACH 49 COUNTIES IS BEYOND THE SHORT TERM. WILL TRY TO CONCENTRATE ON TRENDS...AND LEAVE THE POSSIBILITY OF SHOWERS EVEN DURING THE LATE NIGHT HOURS. MID LEVEL RIDGE REACHES PEAK BY SATURDAY EVENING...BEFORE 500 MB HEIGHTS LOWER GRADUALLY ON SUNDAY. PRECIPITABLE WATER NEAR 2 INCHES THROUGHOUT THE WEEKEND. SO...MAY BECOME TOO MUCH OF A GOOD THING BY THE TIME WE GET TO SUNDAY. IN OTHERWISE...COULD NOT RULE OUT SOME LOCAL FLASH FLOODING. HAVE LIKELY POPS SATURDAY OVER THE OHIO VALLEY AND ACROSS THE NORTH...BUT STILL AT LEAST 40 IN THE SOUTH. MOST 00Z MODELS SHOWING A 500 MB VORT AXIS CREEPING EAST ON SUNDAY...SO WILL INCREASE POPS NOW...WITH LIKELY POPS MOVING EAST THROUGH CWA DURING THE AFTERNOON. WITH ABUNDANT CLOUDS...CAPE STRUGGLES TO GET ABOVE 1500 J/KG BOTH DAYS. NAM AND GFS A BIT MORE EAGER TO NUDGE THE DEEPER MOISTURE TO OUR SOUTHEAST BY MONDAY...AS STEERING CURRENT START TO VEER TO NW. THE ECMWF MORE RELUCTANT. NO REASON TO JUMP ON ANY LOWERING TREND FOR MONDAY POPS AT THIS TIME. && .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/... CONT TO BE SOME DISAGREEMENT WITH PROGRESSION OF S/W TROF AND PUSH BACK FROM UPR RIDGE SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. APPEARS IT WILL DAMPEN OUT AT OVER THE AREA...AT THE MERCY OF RIDGE. WILL KEEP FCST SIMILAR TO PREVIOUS ONE IN THE EXTENDED WITH GREATEST CHC ACROSS SE OH WITH PERHAPS A SHIFT EAST RIDGE BREAK DOWN. ATTENTION TURNS TO INVERTED SFC TROF NEAR MTNS NEXT WEEK FOR PRIMARY FOCUS OF MAINLY DIURNAL CONVECTION NEXT WEEK. TEMPS WILL BE SLIGHTLY ABV NORMAL...HOWEVER THANKFULLY NO HEAT WAVE IN SIGHT ATTM. && .AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHOWERS CONTINUING TO PUSH INTO FORECAST AREA PER LATEST RADAR AND EVEN SOME OBS STARTING TO SHOW LIGHT RAIN REPORTS INTO THE KANAWHA VALLEY NOW. TRIED TO TIME OUT MVFR CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES WITH THE BULK OF THE SHOWERS MOVING THROUGH EARLY THIS MORNING AT KBKW...KCRW AND KHTS. SOME AIRPORTS OUT OF OUR CWA...LIKE JKL AND BLF...ARE DROPPING INTO IFR CEILINGS FROM TIME TO TIME...SO WILL HAVE TO WATCH THAT...ESPECIALLY AT KBKW...AS MOISTURE CONTINUES PUSHING NORTH. A LITTLE MORE INSTABILITY AROUND TOMORROW...SO DO HAVE SOME VCTS MENTION. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: MVFR TIMING COULD DIFFER. BRIEF IFR VISIBILITIES AND CEILINGS POSSIBLE IN SHOWERS. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. DATE FRI 07/13/12 UTC 1HRLY 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 EDT 1HRLY 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 CRW CONSISTENCY M M M M M M M H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H M H H M M M H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY M H H H H H M H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 06Z SATURDAY... BRIEF PERIODS OF IFR IN SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE WEEKEND. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...KTB/MZ NEAR TERM...MZ SHORT TERM...KTB LONG TERM...30 AVIATION...MZ