303 FXUS61 KBGM 111836 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 236 PM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL BRING A CONTINUATION OF MAINLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO THE AREA THROUGH THE END OF THIS WEEK. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE POCONOS WILL END EARLY THIS EVENING... FOLLOWED BY ANOTHER DRY MILD NIGHT WITH PATCHY FOG DEVELOPING TOWARD MORNING. THE WARM DRY WEATHER WILL CONTINUE ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WITH NOTHING MORE THAN A FEW ISOLATED AFTERNOON THUNDERSTORMS. DAYTIME HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 80S TO NEAR 90 WITH LOWS MOSTLY IN THE 50S. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/... UPDATED AT 230 PM... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF THE POCONOS HAVE BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY SOUTHEAST THIS AFTERNOON. THE STORMS ARE FEEDING ON CAPE VALUES EXCEEDING 500 J/KG BUT ARE ALSO INGESTING PLENTY OF DRY ENVIRNOMENTAL AIR AND HAVE REMAINED WELL BELOW SEVERE LIMITS THROUGH MID- AFTERNOON. EXPECT A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO LINGER THROUGH THE REST OF THE AFTERNOON BEFORE DIMINISHING COMPLETELY EARLY THIS EVENING. GIVEN THAT THESE STORMS ARE MAINLY BEING FORCED BY TERRAIN AND ARE DRIFTING SOUTHEAST EXPECT THAT THEY WILL MOST LIKELY REMAIN OUT OF THE WYOMING AND LACKAWANNA VALLEYS THROUGH THE DAY. ANOTHER MOSTLY CLEAR... MILD NIGHT IS EXPECTED TONIGHT. SOME RIVER VALLEY FOG FORMED LAST NIGHT... AND WITH CLEAR CALM CONDITIONS TONIGHT EXPECT AT LEAST PATCHY RIVER VALLEY FOG TO FORM ONCE AGAIN. HOWEVER CURRENT DEW POINT AT ELM IS 48 INDICATING THAT EXPECTED LOWS IN THE UPPER 40S AND LOWER 50S IN THE VALLEYS MAY BE JUST ABOVE THE CROSS-OVER TEMPERATURE... SO NOT EXPECTING THE VALLEY FOG TO ALL THAT DENSE OR WIDESPREAD. THURSDAY WILL BE SIMILAR TO TODAY... WITH ANY FOG BURNING OFF TO ALLOW FOR PLENTY OF SUNSHINE MIXED WITH SOME AFTERNOON CU. 500 MB HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO RISE ABOUT 10 METERS... BUT SFC DEW POINTS ARE ALSO FORECAST TO RISE SEVERAL DEGREES COMPARED TO TODAY. THE 4 KM NAM DEVELOPS SCT SHOWERS OVER THE AREA THURSDAY AFTERNOON. WITH LACK OF ANY DECENT DYNAMICAL FORCING ON THURSDAY EXPECT THAT THE NAM COVERAGE IS OVERDONE... BUT CAN'T RULE OUT A FEW ISOALTED STORMS AND HAVE GONE WITH 15 TO 20 POPS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA BASED ON THE ABOVE REASONING. TEMPERATURES ON THURSDAY SHOULD BE A FEW DEGREES WARMER THAN TODAY... MAINLY 85 TO 90. && .SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY/... FOR THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY...GFS...EURO..CMC AND NAM ALL INDICATE THAT A SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT OFF THE EAST COAST AND FAIRLY FLAT UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL DEVELOP OVERHEAD BY FRI PM. THIS WILL OPEN THE GATES TO A SWRLY LOW-LEVEL FLOW OF INCREASING LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE AND HUMIDITY UP THE APPALACHIANS BEGINNING THU NGT BUT LASTING THRU FRIDAY INTO SATURDAY. THIS INCREASE IN LOW- LEVEL MOISTURE WILL LEAD TO MORE AND MORE DESTABILIZATION WITH DIURNAL HEATING EACH DAY. MODELS VARY QUITE A BIT ON VARIOUS SCENARIOS THIS FAR IN ADVANCE. THE NAM AND EURO SUGGESTS FRIDAY REMAINS MOSTLY DRY WITH THE GFS AND CMC BRINGING MORE IN THE WAY OF SCT SHRA AND TSRA FRI PM. THEN ON SATURDAY...GFS LOOKS TO BE A LITTLE OVERDONE WITH WIDESPREAD CONVECTIVE ACVTY OVR NY AND PA WITH THE CMC AND NAM LESS SO. THE EURO DOES NOT HAVE ANY CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION REACHING ANY OF OUR CWA EVEN ON SAT. SO WHAT TO DO...I DECIDED TO GO WITH A BLEND OF THE MODEL SOLUTIONS AND COLLABORATE WITH NEIGHBORING OFFICES WITH GRADUALLY INCREASING POPS FROM FRI INTO SAT. POPS PEAK IN THE 30S ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUES TO SLOWLY CLIMB THRU THE PERIOD TO ABOVE SEASONAL NORMALS. I SEE NO SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER OR FLOOD EVENTS THRU THIS PERIOD. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/... IN THE LONG RANGE I USED HPC AND BLENDED MY GRIDS WITH SURROUNDING OFFICES. MORE TWEEKS WILL COME BEFORE WE SEND THEM TO THE NDFD SERVER AS NEIGHBORING OFFICES FINISH THEIR LONG TERM GRIDS. FOR THE WEEKEND...THE SWRLY MOIST LL FLOW CONTINUES ON THE EURO...CMC AND GFS WITH A FLAT RIDGE ALOFT. BELIEVE SCTRD SHRA AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BREAK OUT AGAIN SUN PM...AFTER A WANING PERIOD SAT NGT. FOR MONDAY MODELS INDICATE THAT SOME SORT OF SHRT WAVE TROF PUSHES EAST INTO NY AND PA WITH MORE CHC/S FOR SHRA AND TSRA. THIS TROF WILL PUSH A FRNT THRU THE REGION WHICH WILL EVENUALLY CLEAR THE REGION LATER ON TUESDAY. HENCE MORE POPS AGAIN FOR TUESDAY. && .AVIATION /18Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... EXCEPT FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SOUTHEAST OF AVP OVER THE POCONOS... CONDITIONS WILL BE VFR THROUGH THIS EVENING WITH SCT CLOUDS FROM 5 TO 8 KFT. SOME FOG WILL FORM IN THE RIVER VALLEYS LATE TONIGHT THROUGH ABOUT 13Z... WITH CONDITIONS AT ELM LIKELY FALLING TO IFR VSBYS AT TMIES... OTHERWISE GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BE VARIABLE LESS THAN 10 KTS THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. OUTLOOK... THU AFTERNOON THROUGH FRI...MOSTLY VFR. SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT AFTN/EVE. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...MSE NEAR TERM...MSE SHORT TERM...DJN LONG TERM...DJN AVIATION...MSE