300 FXUS61 KBGM 111414 AFDBGM AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BINGHAMTON NY 1014 AM EDT WED JUL 11 2012 .SYNOPSIS... OTHER THAN AN ISOLATED SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON, PRIMARILY OVER NORTHEAST PENNSYLVANIA, PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES ARE EXPECTED THROUGH LATE WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY WARM AS THE WEEK PROGRESSES. THE NEXT CHANCE FOR RAIN WILL COME ON THE WEEKEND, AS HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE EAST COAST, BRINGS A WARM AND HUMID SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO THE REGION. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... UPDATED AT 10 AM... CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE. LATEST 12Z BUF AND PIT SOUNDINGS SHOWING LOTS OF DRY AIR THROUGH A DEEP LAYER ALONG WITH SOME CAPPING. FULL MIXING OF THESE SOUNDINGS WOULD ALLOW FOR TEMPERATURES TO REACH MOSTLY THE MID 80S THIS AFTERNOON. WATER VAPOR AND BLENDED TPW PRODUCTS SHOWING A LITTLE MORE MOISTURE OVER EASTERN PA. SHORT WAVE CURRENTLY DIGGING SOUTHEAST ACROSS NY COULD STILL INTERACT WITH THIS MOISTURE TO PRODUCE A FEW ISOLATED SHOWERS MAINLY OVER THE SOUTHEAST HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON. BASED ON THIS HAVE KEPT POPS IN THE 15 TO 20 PCT RANGE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA... AND LOWER TO THE NORTH AND WEST. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW. 640 AM UPDATE...CURRENT FORECAST IN GOOD SHAPE JUST MINOR SHORT TERM TEMP/DEW POINT ADJUSTMENTS. PREVIOUS DISC... AT 415 AM...SATELLITE SHOWED CLEAR SKIES ACROSS THE REGION WITH A BIT MORE CLOUD ACROSS THE WYOMING VALLEY AND POCONOS. SFC HIGH PRES WILL RESIDE OVER THE REGION TODAY AS A BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROF REMAINS OVER THE NORTHEAST. THIS AFTERNOON WITH DAYTIME HEATING MODELS INDICATE THE BEST INSTABILITY 700-1200 J/KG WILL RESIDE ACROSS NORTHEAST PA, THE SOUTHERN CATSKILLS AND ALONG THE NY/PA BORDER. ONCE AGAIN MODEL SOUNDINGS INDICATE A MID LEVEL CAP SO ACTIVITY WILL BE CONFINED TO THE AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING HOURS. NOT MUCH OF A TRIGGER TODAY BUT HIGHER DEW POINTS IN THIS REGION ALONG WITH DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD RESULT IN ISOLATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. UNDER MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES MAX TEMPS WILL RANGE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT/... TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT...UPPER LEVEL HEIGHTS WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION THROUGH THE PERIOD AS A RIDGE DEVELOPS AND HEIGHTS RISE TO 590DM BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SFC HIGH PRES WILL MOVE OFF THE EAST COAST PROVIDING A SOUTHERLY FLOW OF MORE HUMID AIR BY FRIDAY AFTERNOON. SKIES WILL REMAIN PARTLY TO MAINLY CLEAR THROUGH THE PERIOD WITH MAX TEMPS MODIFYING A COUPLE OF DEGREES EACH DAY. MAX TEMPS ON THURSDAY WILL RANGE IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S WITH HIGHS ON FRIDAY MID 80S TO AROUND 90. AREA SHOULD REMAIN DRY ON THURSDAY DUE TO BUILDING UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AND LACK OF ANY TRIGGER. ON FRIDAY, SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH BRING INCREASING DEW POINTS WITH MODELS INDICATING BETTER CAPE ACROSS THE CENTRAL SOUTHERN TIER AND FINGER LAKES REGION. WITH CAPE VALUES AROUND 1000J/KG WILL INCLUDE SLIGHT CHC FOR TSRA DURING THE AFTERNOON OVER THE ABOVE MENTIONED AREAS. FRIDAY NIGHT, WILL CONTINUE WITH SLIGHT CHC POPS WEST AS MOIST SOUTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES AND SFC LOW PRES LIFTS NORTH INTO THE WESTERN LAKES. && .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... 345AM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO PREVIOUS FORECAST OTHER THAN TWEAKING TEMPS/DP/RH, SKY COVER, AND WINDS/WIND GUSTS. MODELS ARE IN DISAGREEMENT WITH THE EXTENDED FORECAST, LEADING TO A HIGH AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY. THIS WOULD WARRANT LEAVING CURRENT FORECAST IN PLACE FOR THE TIME BEING, AS IT REFLECTS THIS. 330 PM TUESDAY UPDATE... WEAK UPPER LEVEL TROUGH DEVELOPING OVER THE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY WILL GRADUALLY FUNNEL INCREASINGLY MOIST UNSTABLE AIR NORTH UP THE APPALACHIANS TOWARD OUR AREA FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY. THE GFS IS FASTER THAN THE ECMWF WITH DEVELOPING SPOTTY QPF OVER THE AREA BY FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY... HOWEVER BOTH MODELS WOULD INDICATE A SLOWLY INCREASING POP THROUGH THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER WILL KEEP POPS GENERALLY IN THE LOW CHC CATEGORY THROUGH SATURDAY WITH NO STRONG FORCING FOR ORGANIZED UPWARD MOTION EXPECTED. TEMPERATURES WILL ALSO CONTINUE A GRADUAL WARMING TREND THROUGH THIS TIME WITH HIGHS MOSTLY IN THE MID TO UPPER 80S FRIDAY AND SATURDAY... AND NEAR 90 POSSIBLE IN THE LAKE PLAIN. NEXT CHC FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION APPEARS TO BE SUNDAY... ALTHOUGH CONFIDENCE WITH THIS TIMING IS OBVIOUSLY LOW GIVEN THE LONG RANGE OF THE FORECAST. HOWEVER AT THIS TIME BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT INDICATING THAT THE TROUGH OVER THE MIDWEST WILL SHIFT EAST WITH POTENTIAL FOR AN ORGANIZED ROUND OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN WARM AND PROBABLY QUITE HUMID INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. && .AVIATION /14Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... SFC HIGH PRESSURE WILL KEEP VFR IN PLACE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD. THERE IS ANOTHER SLIGHT CHANCE OF SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS IN THE KAVP AREA ONCE AGAIN TODAY. HOWEVER, WITH LOW CONFIDENCE, HAVE NOT PLACED ANY SHRA IN TAFS AT THIS TIME. LIGHT AND VARIABLE WINDS WILL CONTINUE INTO MID DAY TOMORROW. SOME LOCATIONS MAY STAY LIGHT AND VARIABLE THROUGH THE TAF PERIOD, WHILE OTHER LOCATIONS HAVE TERRAIN DRIVEN WIND AROUND 5KTS DURING THE AFTERNOON. OUTLOOK... THU THROUGH FRI...VFR. SAT AND SUN...GENERALLY VFR. CHC MVFR SHWRS/TSTMS SAT AFTN/EVE. && .BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PA...NONE. NY...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RRM NEAR TERM...MSE/RRM SHORT TERM...RRM LONG TERM...MSE/SLI AVIATION...SLI