316 
FXUS63 KPAH 092015
AFDPAH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PADUCAH KY
315 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

.SHORT TERM...(THIS EVENING THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO DEVELOP
FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE AFTERNOON OVER THE SOUTHERN HALF OF THE
AREA. CANNOT RULE OUT A STRAY PULSY SEVERE STORM...BUT GIVEN THE
WEAK DEVELOPMENT SO FAR THIS AFTERNOON...AM NOT TOO EXCITED ABOUT
IT. FIGURE THAT MOST OF THE CONVECTION WILL BE NEAR THE SOUTHERN
BORDER...IF NOT SOUTH OF THE AREA BY 00Z. 

TRIED TO INDICATE A DRYING TREND THROUGH THE EVENING...AND THEN
RAMPED POPS BACK UP TOWARD MORNING...AS THE 12Z GUIDANCE SEEMS TO BE
COMING INTO AGREEMENT IN GENERATING SOME ELEVATED SHOWERS/STORMS
OVER THE SOUTHERN THIRD OF THE AREA LATE TONIGHT INTO TUESDAY
MORNING. NOT SURE HOW FAR NORTH IT WILL GET OR HOW LONG IT WILL
LINGER OVER THE AREA...BUT IT SHOULD BE DRYING OUT IN THE
AFTERNOON. 

BEYOND TUESDAY...CONFIDENCE IS QUITE LOW IN THE CONVECTIVE
EVOLUTION. GENERALLY FAVOR A SLOWER...WEAKER FRONTAL PUSH...SO
WOULD NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE OCCASIONAL ROUNDS OF SHOWERS OR
STORMS STREAMING NEAR OR THROUGH THE PENNYRILE. THE MODELS ARE
QUITE VARIED IN THE DETAILS OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE REGION
WEDNESDAY INTO THURSDAY. WITH A LESS ROBUST FRONTAL PASSAGE WOULD
NOT BE SURPRISED TO SEE SOME UPPER TROUGH/LOW DEVELOPMENT IN OUR
IMMEDIATE VICINITY AS EARLY AS WEDNESDAY. WHEN THIS
HAPPENS...CONVECTION IS LIKELY TO SPREAD BACK NORTHWEST ACROSS
MUCH OF THE AREA. BEGAN TO TREND POPS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST
WEDNESDAY.

AS FOR TEMPERATURES...THE NAM IS INDICATING MID 90S OVER THE KMVN
AREA TUESDAY. GIVEN THE DRY AIR MOVING IN...AND PLENTY OF SUNSHINE
EXPECTED...WILL TREND TOWARD THE WARM SIDE OF GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY. WEDNESDAY WILL BE MORE DEPENDENT ON CLOUD
AND PRECIPITATION TRENDS...BUT IT SHOULD BE ON THE WARM SIDE OF
GUIDANCE AT LEAST ON THE NORTHWEST PART OF THE AREA. 

.LONG TERM...(THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 315 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

VERY UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EXTENDED.  
MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW A SURFACE FRONT/TROF MEANDERING NEAR THE 
REGION THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT...THEN A MID TO UPPER LEVEL TROF 
WILL SETTLE OVER THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER FRIDAY NIGHT AND THROUGH THE 
WEEKEND.  WITH THE BEST MOISTURE OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S...SHOWER AND 
THUNDERSTORM CHANCES WILL BE HIGHEST ACROSS WEST KENTUCKY THROUGH 
THE EXTENDED...WITH LESSER CHANCES TOWARD NORTHWEST PORTIONS OF THE 
PAH FORECAST AREA.  HIGHER POPS MAY BE NEEDED AT TIMES...BUT MODELS 
ARE ALL OVER THE PLACE WITH QPF PLACEMENT/AMOUNTS.  KEPT POPS IN THE 
CHANCE CATEGORY SOUTHEAST TO LOW CHANCE/SLIGHT CHANCE CATEGORIES 
NORTHWEST FOR NOW.  THE ADDITIONAL CLOUD COVER WILL HELP KEEP 
TEMPERATURES NEAR TO A LITTLE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY AFTERNOON)
ISSUED AT 1246 PM CDT MON JUL 9 2012

HAVE LIMITED TSRA MENTION TO TEMPOS THIS AFTERNOON AT KCGI AND KPAH.
OTHERWISE ONLY CONCERN TO AVIATION WILL BE FOG POTENTIAL LATE
TONIGHT. CANNOT SEE LESS THAN MVFR AT THIS TIME.

&&

.PAH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
IL...NONE.
MO...NONE.
IN...NONE.
KY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...DRS
SHORT TERM...DRS
LONG TERM....RST
AVIATION...DRS