956 FXUS63 KMPX 091106 AFDMPX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TWIN CITIES/CHANHASSEN MN 606 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012 .UPDATE... UPDATED TO INCLUDE 12Z AVIATION DISCUSSION BELOW. && .DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 422 AM CDT MON JUL 9 2012/ OVERVIEW...LITTLE CHANGE TO THE PRECIPITATION FORECAST WITH MANY DRY PERIODS OVER THE NEXT 7 DAYS. SMALL POPS IN THE WESTERN FORECAST AREA LATE IN THE WEEK AFTER RETURN FLOW BECOMES ESTABLISHED. IN TERMS OF TEMPERATURES...TODAY AND TUESDAY LOOK A BIT COOLER THAN THIS PAST WEEKEND BUT A WARMING TREND BEGINS ON WEDNESDAY AND LASTS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. WENT WARMER THAN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. SUBTLE WAVE AND SPEED DISCONTINUITY BETWEEN 500-300MB AND 700-500MB OMEGA IN THE EASTERN DAKOTAS AND MN HELPING TO SUSTAIN SCATTERED HIGH BASED SHOWERS AND WEAK THUNDERSTORMS IN SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL MN THIS MORNING. THERE HAS EVEN BEEN ACCAS DEVELOPMENT BACK TO THE W/NW OVER THE PAST COUPLE HOURS IN EASTERN SD. EVEN THOUGH THE SHOWERS HAVE LINGERED LONGER THAN EXPECTED...BELIEVE A DOWNWARD TREND IS IN STORE AND SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TO NO ACTIVITY AFTER 12Z. OTHERWISE...925-850MB TEMPERATURES WILL BE 1-3 C COOLER TODAY THAN SUNDAY. WE WILL LIKELY SEE A BIT COOLER HIGH TEMPS TODAY WITH A LIGHT NORTHERLY BREEZE. SCATTERED CUMULIFORM CLOUDS ARE POSSIBLE TODAY...BUT WOULD STILL ANTICIPATE MOSTLY SUNNY CONDITIONS. LITTLE TO TALK ABOUT IN THE COMING DAYS. ACTUALLY THE 09.00Z EC AND 09.00Z GFS ARE IN CLOSER AGREEMENT WITH RESPECT TO THE LARGE SCALE PATTERN THROUGH THE WEEKEND. AT THIS TIME YESTERDAY MORNING...AN OLDER EC SOLUTION BROUGHT THE 588DM 500MB HEIGHT AS FAR NORTH AS HUDSON BAY...ACTUALLY BUILDING THE HEIGHTS AS IT MOVED THE CURRENT WEST COAST RIDGING EAST OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. IN THIS CASE...THE LATEST EC HAS FALLEN NEARLY IN LINE WITH THE GFS. THERE IS STILL SOME NOTABLE DISCREPANCIES IN THE LOW LEVEL THICKNESS VALUES AND TEMPERATURES...WHICH IS CERTAINLY AFFECTING THE TEMPERATURE FORECAST PAST WEDNESDAY. KEEPING IN MIND OUR TYPICAL COOL BIAS WHEN FORECASTING VERY WARM TEMPERATURES IN THE EXTENDED...DECIDED TO BUMP TEMPERATURES UP AND INCLUDE MORE UPPER 80S AND 90S THURSDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. THINK THE WARMER EC/GEM HAVE A BETTER HANDLE ON TEMPERATURES DURING THIS STRETCH. OF COURSE CLOUDS AND ANY PRECIP WILL PLAY A ROLE IN JUST HOW WARM WE GET...BUT WANTED TO TREND THE FORECAST WARMER. WE NOW HAVE MUCH OF THE AREA SEEING LESS THAN 1" OF LIQUID IN THE PAST 2-3 WEEKS. THE DRY SURFACE WILL BE A PLAYER WITH THE WARMTH LATER THIS WEEK. THIS AIR MASS WILL NOT BE AS WARM AS WHAT WE SAW LAST WEEK...BUT THERE IS STILL POTENTIAL FOR TEMPS TO REMAIN AROUND 8 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL FOR A FEW DAYS. AS MOISTURE RETURNS TO THE DAKOTAS FRIDAY/SATURDAY...SHOWERS/STORMS MOVE INTO WESTERN AND CENTRAL MINNESOTA ALONG THE EASTERN SIDE OF LONG WAVE RIDING IN THE WESTERN HALF OF THE CONUS. POSSIBILITY FOR THUNDERSTORMS AND HEALTHY RAIN IS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS...INITIALLY DUE TO A SHORTWAVE MOVING BY THE CENTRAL US/CANADIAN BORDER AND THEN AIDED BY A DIVERGENT UPPER LEVEL PATTERN AHEAD OF SIGNIFICANT HEIGHT FALLS ACROSS WESTERN CANADA. MONSOON RELATED MOISTURE WELL SOUTHWEST OF MINNESOTA SHOULD LARGELY REMAIN BOTTLED UP SOUTH OF THE JET. && .AVIATION.../12Z TAF ISSUANCE/ QUIET WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD... WITH VFR CONDITIONS PREDOMINATING. LIGHT NORTHERLY WINDS WILL PERSIST AS HIGH PRESSURE NORTH OF THE AREA SLOWLY SETTLES SOUTHEAST THROUGH TUESDAY. KMSP... TAF REFLECTS FORECAST EXPECTATIONS WITH MINIMAL DEVIATIONS EXPECTED. //OUTLOOK FOR KMSP FOR TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY TUESDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT... VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED. FRIDAY... MVFR CEILINGS POSSIBLE. && .MPX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... MN...NONE. WI...NONE. && $$