272 FXUS61 KCAR 060142 AFDCAR AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CARIBOU ME 942 PM EDT THU JUL 5 2012 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE WILL RIDGE ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATER FRIDAY THEN CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. ANOTHER COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY NIGHT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/... 930 PM UPDATE: XCPT FOR A LONE SHWR JUST W OF BGR...ALL SHWR ACTIVITY HAS DISSIPATED AND THIS TREND SHOULD CONT TIL ALL SHWRS DISSIPATE WITHIN THE NEXT HR OR SO. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE DIURNAL BKN-OVC CU FIELD OVR THE FA HAS BECOME SCT WITH THE CUT- OFF OF SUNSHINE AFT SUNSET...SO WE LOWERED CLD CVR TO BRING MCLR SKY WORDING THE REGION FOR THE OVRNGT HRS. LASTLY...WE LOADED 9 PM OBSVD HRLY TEMPS ACROSS THE FA...WHICH WERE ABOUT A DEG OR TWO WARMER THAN ANTICIPATED FOR THIS HR FROM THE PREVIOUS UPDATE. WE RE-MERGED THE HRLY TREND TO 5 AM FRI MORN FCST LOWS...WITH NO REASON TO MODIFY THESE OVRNGT LOWS ATTM. REST OF NEAR TERM FCST ELEMENTS REMAINED UNCHGD THIS UPDATE. 600 PM UPDATE: NO CHGS TO POPS AND CLD CVR GRIDS FROM PREVIOUS FCST UPDATE...WITH SHWRS BEGINNING TO DIMINISH AS PER PREVIOUS UPDATE. LOADED 5 PM OBSVD HRLY TEMPS AND MADE ADJUSTMENT TO HI TEMPS TDY TO ALLOW FOR A NEW HRLY TREND TO OVRNGT LOW TEMPS XPCTED BY 5 AM. ORGNL DISC: SHOWERS WILL SUBSIDE THIS EVENING AS DAYTIME HEATING IS LOST AND AN UPPER TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES. RIDGING ALOFT AND AT THE SURFACE WILL FOLLOW THE RETREATING TROUGH, RESULTING IN PARTIALLY CLEARING SKIES OVERNIGHT. THERE WILL STILL BE PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AROUND THOUGH, ESPECIALLY IN ANY LOCATIONS THAT SAW RAIN TODAY. AS SUCH, EXPECT FOG TO DEVELOP LATE TONIGHT. LOWS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 50S TO LOWER 60S. THE AFOREMENTIONED HIGH PRESSURE WILL LINGER OVER THE STATE TOMORROW MORNING, THEN GRADUALLY SHIFT OFF TO THE EAST DURING THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE, LOW PRESSURE WILL TREK ACROSS CENTRAL ONTARIO AND QUEBEC, DRAGGING ITS ATTENDANT COLD FRONT THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES AND INTO NEW ENGLAND BY MID AFTERNOON. THIS FEATURE WILL APPROACH THE NORTHWESTERN MAINE BORDER LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, WITH SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING ALONG AND JUST AHEAD OF IT. AS SUCH, NORTHERN AROOSTOOK COUNTY COULD SEE SOME PRECIPITATION MID-TO-LATE TOMORROW AFTERNOON, BUT THE BULK OF THE ACTIVITY SHOULD HOLD OFF UNTIL EVENING. WITH PLENTIFUL SUNSHINE AND SOUTH WINDS TOMORROW, HIGHS WILL REACH INTO THE LOWER TO MID 80S IN MOST LOCATIONS AWAY FROM THE COAST; HERE, HIGHS WILL BE IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S. && .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/... A COLD FRONT AND UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL CROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. AT THE SAME TIME MID LEVEL WINDS WILL INCREASE ALONG WITH STEEPENING MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. EXPECT A CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT. A SECONDARY COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE REGION SATURDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT WITH ANOTHER CHANCE OF SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT. THE SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH LATER SATURDAY NIGHT IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT. COULD HAVE ENOUGH INSTABILITY WITH A POSSIBLE DISTURBANCE CROSSING THE REGION SUNDAY TO PRODUCE AN ISOLATED AFTERNOON SHOWER/THUNDERSTORM. HIGH PRESSURE WILL THEN BEGIN TO BUILD EAST SUNDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES ARE EXPECTED TO BE AT ABOVE NORMAL LEVELS SATURDAY...WITH NEAR NORMAL LEVEL TEMPERATURES SUNDAY. && .LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... A TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER EASTERN CANADA EARLY NEXT WEEK WILL BE CENTERED OVER LABRADOR. SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE GREAT LAKES WILL BE RIDGING EAST INTO THE EAST COAST. THIS SHOULD START THE WEEK WITH A SUNNY TO PARTLY CLOUDY AND SEASONABLE DAY ON MONDAY WITH A FEW CUMULUS CLOUDS MAINLY OVER THE NORTH. A WEAK SHORTWAVE DISTURBANCE WILL APPROACH ON TUESDAY. THE GFS BRINGS THE SHORTWAVE IN LATE TUESDAY POSSIBLY BRINGING SCATTERED SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON. THE ECMWF...HOWEVER...LIFTS THE DISTURBANCE NORTH OF THE AREA TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY WHICH WOULD KEEP TUESDAY NIGHT. RIDGING ALONG THE EAST COAST SHOULD THEN BRING A MOSTLY SUNNY DAY ON WEDNESDAY. DRY WEATHER MAY LAST INTO THURSDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF THEN INDICATE SOME SUBTROPICAL MOISTURE MAY WORK NORTHWARD UP THE EAST COAST AT THE END OF THE WEEK. AT THIS TIME THE GUIDANCE KEEPS THE MOISTURE CONFINED TO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION WITH WESTERLIES MAINTAINING DRY WEATHER ACROSS THE STATE INTO THE COMING WEEKEND. HOWEVER...WITH THE MOISTURE NEARBY TO THE NORTH ANY SHIFT NORTHWARD COULD INCREASE THE RISK OF SHOWERS OVER THE REGION. && .AVIATION /22Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... NEAR TERM: VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE FIRST PART OF TONIGHT. THEN PATCHY DENSE FOG WILL DEVELOP AFTER 06Z, WITH IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH 11Z. KBGR AND KBHB WILL SEE THE LOWEST VIS AND CEILINGS. ALL SITES SHOULD BE VFR BY 13Z FRIDAY, WITH VFR EXPECTED THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SHORT TERM: CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SHOWERS OR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. OTHERWISE...GENERALLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY. && .MARINE... NEAR TERM: 600 PM UPDATE...LOWERED WV HTS A LITTLE OVR ALL OF OUR MZS FOR TNGT INTO FRI. NO OTHER CHGS MADE ATTM. ORGNL DISC...NO HEADLINES WILL BE NEEDED THROUGH TOMORROW. THE ONLY CONCERN WILL BE AREAS OF FOG LATE TONIGHT WHICH WILL LOWER VISIBILITY TO BELOW 1 NM AT TIMES. SHORT TERM: WINDS/SEAS ARE EXPECTED TO BE BELOW SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY LEVELS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT. VISIBILITIES COULD BE REDUCED IN ANY SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY. && .CAR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... ME...NONE. MARINE...NONE. && $$ NEAR TERM...VJN SHORT TERM...NORCROSS LONG TERM...BLOOMER AVIATION...VJN MARINE...VJN/NORCROSS