838 
FXUS65 KBOI 011503
AFDBOI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BOISE ID
903 AM MDT SUN JUL 1 2012

.DISCUSSION...FRONTAL CLOUD BAND EXTENDING FROM NWRN MONTANA SSWWD 
ALONG ORE/ID BORDER THIS MORNING HAS DEVELOPED LIGHT SHOWERS BUT NO 
THUNDERSTORMS YET.  NAM AND GFS CONTINUE TO FORECAST SIGNIFICANT
INSTABILITY /LI NEAR -4 AND CAPE NEAR 1000 J/KG/ IN IDAHO NORTH OF 
THE SNAKE BASIN TODAY.  THESE VALUES MAY BE EXCESSIVE BUT EVEN SO 
WE CAN STILL EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO FORM IN NRN ZONES IN IDAHO 
TODAY AS COLD FRONT COMES IN FROM THE WEST.  STRONGER STORMS SHOULD
HAVE GUSTY DOWN-DRAFT AND OUTFLOW WINDS AS THE MAIN PROBLEM...WITH 
HEAVY RAIN AND HAIL OF SECONDARY CONCERN.  NEW NAM SHIFTS MAXIMUM 
INSTABILITY FROM VALLEY COUNTY AT 15Z THIS MORNING TO CAMAS COUNTY 
21Z THIS AFTERNOON INDICATING ADVANCE OF THE COLD FRONT.  ANOTHER 
AREA OF INSTABILITY IN THE OWYHEE MOUNTAINS THIS MORNING...WHERE NO 
THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED YET...SHOULD MOVE TO SRN OWYHEE AND 
TWIN FALLS COUNTIES THIS AFTERNOON WHERE DAYTIME HEATING SHOULD 
INITIATE CONVECTION.  CURRENT FORECAST HAS ALL THIS SO NO UPDATES 
NEEDED AT THIS TIME.  ALSO...INCOMING UPPER TROUGH...SURFACE COLD 
FRONT...AND CLOUD COVER...WILL COMBINE TO DROP MAX TEMPS ABOUT TEN 
DEGREES FROM YESTERDAY...AGAIN ALREADY IN FORECASTS.  

&&

AVIATION...A COLD FRONT EXTENDING FROM KMYL-KONO-KREO AT 15Z WILL 
MOVE SLOWLY EASTWARD THROUGH IDAHO TODAY. EXPECT VIRGA...SCATTERED 
SHOWERS AND ISOLATED MVFR THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE FRONT WITH GUSTY 
SURFACE WINDS TO AROUND 30 KTS. AFTER THE FRONT PASSES TO THE 
EAST...EXPECT VFR WITH SURFACE WINDS GENERALLY FROM W TO NW AT 10 TO 
15 KTS...WHILE WINDS ALOFT WILL FROM THE WEST AT 15 TO 20 KTS.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION...
SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH MONDAY...AN UPPER TROUGH...STRETCHING 
FROM THE ID PANHANDLE TO N-CENTRAL CA ON THE 09Z WATER VAPOR 
SATELLITE PIC...WILL LIFT THROUGH SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO TODAY. SO 
FAR THIS MORNING THUNDERSTORMS HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
NORTHERN HALF OF THE TROUGH FROM NE OREGON INTO SW MT AND IN THE 
BASE OF THE TROUGH OVER NORTHERN CA. DO BELIEVE MODELS ARE OVERDONE 
ON INSTABILITY...ESPECIALLY THE NAM...BUT NOT ENOUGH SO TO REMOVE 
ISOLATED THUNDER OVER SE OREGON AND ID/ORE BORDER REGION FOR THIS 
MORNING. BY AFTERNOON ENERGY IN THE BASE OF THE TROUGH IS LIFTING 
THROUGH THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS INCREASING COVERAGE OF 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THESE AREAS. THERE IS A POTENTIAL 
FOR STRONG STORMS IN THE WEST CENTRAL AND BOISE MTNS THIS AFTERNOON 
WHICH WOULD BRING GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS AND POTENTIALLY SMALL HAIL IN 
THE STRONGEST STORMS. ELSEWHERE ACROSS SE OREGON AND SW IDAHO PLENTY 
OF MOISTURE AND ENOUGH LIFT AND INSTABILITY TO SUPPORT ISOLATED 
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS IN THE WESTERN SNAKE BASIN WITH SCATTERED 
COVERAGE OVER THE OWYHEES AND ELEVATED TERRAIN OF SE OREGON. DON/T 
SEE THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING IN WESTERN MAGIC VALLEY /BEST LIFT IS 
TOO FAR NORTH/ BUT ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT OVER HIGHER TERRAIN ALONG 
ID/NV BORDER COULD GET CLOSE. TEMPERATURES TODAY ARE ABOUT 10 
DEGREES OFF OF YESTERDAY/S HIGHS. THE SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM 
DEVELOPMENT CUTS OFF BEFORE SUNSET EXCEPT ACROSS THE E-CENTRAL 
OREGON AND WEST CENTRAL ID MTNS. LIGHT WINDS AND CLEARING SKIES 
OVERNIGHT AS THE AIR MASS DRYS. A DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW ON MONDAY WITH 
TEMPERATURES WARMING 3-5 DEGREES FROM TODAY.

LONG TERM...MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY...VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN 
THE MODELS THROUGH THE LONG TERM THIS MORNING. EC ENSEMBLE FROM 12Z 
IS THE FAVORED SOLUTION. STILL EXPECTING A COOL FRONT TO MOVE 
THROUGH TUESDAY...BRINGING AROUND 5 DEG OF COOLING TO THE REGION. 
AFTER THAT...HEIGHTS WILL RISE AND TEMPS WILL WARM EACH DAY GOING 
INTO THE WEEKEND. PRECIP IS FORECAST MAINLY FOR NRN AND WESTERN 
SECTIONS OF THE CWA MONDAY EVENING...DIMINISHING TUESDAY FROM WEST 
TO EAST. AFTER TUESDAY WE WILL BE DRY THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY. THE 
CENTRAL U.S. RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST LATE IN THE WEEK...PUSHING 
MONSOONAL MOISTURE FARTHER WEST AND TOWARD SW IDAHO. AT THIS TIME IT 
APPEARS THE MOISTURE WILL NOT MAKE IT UP HERE UNTIL LATE IN THE 
WEEKEND.

&&

.BOI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
ID...NONE.
OR...NONE.

&&

$$

WEATHER.GOV/BOISE

DISCUSSION...LC
AVIATION.....JB
PREV SHORT TERM...DG
PREV LONG TERM....SP