326 FXUS61 KRLX 251045 AFDRLX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV 645 AM EDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SYNOPSIS... STRONG COLD FRONT FOR LATE JUNE CROSSES FROM NORTH TO SOUTH THIS MORNING... FOLLOWED BY HIGH PRESSURE FOR MID WEEK. WARMER AIR RETURNS QUICKLY FOR LATE WEEK...IT MAY GET QUITE HOT. && .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... 630AM UPDATE... SFC FRONT AS OF 1030Z LOCATED NEAR KPKB...K3I2...AND JUST SOUTH KUNI. ISO SHRA JUST NORTH OF CWA ATTM. WILL HOLD CURRENT SCHC WITH FRONT AND H85 FRONT LATER TDY. LAMP GUIDANCE CONT TO COME SIGNIFICANTLY COOLER FOR TDY THAN ALL OTHER GUIDANCE. LLVL TEMPS DO COME DOWN THIS AFTN BUT BELIEVE LAMP MAY BE A HAIR TOO LOW BUT WILL NUDGE HIGHS DOWN TDY A DEGREE OR TWO...ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE N WV AND SE OH. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION BELOW... LOOKING AT A MAINLY DRY FROPA THIS MORNING WITH LACK OF ANY MEANINGFUL LLVL CONVERGENCE AND MOISTURE RETURN. LEFT SOME SCHC POPS IN THOUGH...ESPECIALLY ARND DAWN FOR ISOLATED SHRA AS BL COOLS. HAVE FRONT TO OH RVR BY 10Z...INTO CENTRAL WV BY 12Z AND CLEARING MTNS SHORTLY THEREAFTER. H850 FRONT LAGS SEVERAL HRS BEHIND AND ONLY HAVE A BAND OF SCHC POPS WITH IT FOR MOST PART AS IMPRESSIVE DRY AIR SUBSIDENCE INVERSION DEVELOPS ABV A PINCH OF MOISTURE ARND H85. DID ALLOW FOR LOW CHC SW VA FOR SLIGHTLY BETTER COVERAGE MAY EXIST IN AFTN. DRY AIR ADVECTING IN ALL LEVELS FROM NORTH FOLLOWING PASSAGE OF H85 FRONT ON FRESH NORTHERLY BREEZE. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR SFC DWPTS TO RESPOND AS WELL. HAVE BROUGHT IN CLEARING ACROSS SE OH AND N WV BY 18Z...AND WORKING SOUTH IN AFTN. MOST PLACES SHOULD BE CLR WITH SUNSET EXCEPT SW VA COUNTIES. WITH CAA HOLDING OFF UNTIL PASSAGE OF H85 FRONT...HAVE SOUTHERN HALF OF CWA WARMEST...IN THE 80 TO 85F RANGE...WITH UPR 70S SE OH AND NORTHERN WV. H85 TEMPS BOTTOM OUT IN 6 TO 8C RANGE OVERNIGHT MONDAY. NOT SURE HOW MUCH AREA WILL REALIZE WITH MORNING LOWS WITH SFC HIGH ANCHORED ACROSS UPPER MIDWEST WITH A PUFF IN BL PERHAPS PREVENTING FULL DECOUPLING. WILL TAKE A BLEND OF COOLER MAV AND WARMER MET. && .SHORT TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT/... HIGH PRESSURE RULES THROUGH THE PERIOD. A WARM AIR CAP AND LACK OF MOISTURE WILL PREVENT ANY PRECIPITATION. SOME DIFFERENCES IN NIGHTTIME LOWS. MET MOS TENDS TO DO BETTER AT NIGHT...SO WILL STAY CLOSER TO IT FOR LOWS. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... RATHER IMPRESSIVE HEAT EXPECTED LATE IN THE WORK WEEK...I.E. THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER RIDGE TAKES HOLD...AND 850MB TEMPS RISE TO BETWEEN 22 TO 24 C DURING THE PERIOD. MODELS HAVE BEEN TRENDING TOWARDS A WARMER FORECAST THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...AND DID ELECT TO NUDGE TEMPERATURES UP A COUPLE OF DEGREES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS CONFIDENCE IS INCREASING. HOWEVER...BASED ON MODEL OUTPUT...IT WOULD SUGGEST TEMPERATURES TOPPING OUT AT AROUND 100. THIS TENDS TO BE PRETTY RARE...AND AS A RESULT...DECIDED TO STICK WITH MID TO UPPER 90S FOR NOW...AND WILL ALLOW SUBSEQUENT SHIFTS TO INCREASE MAX TEMPERATURES AS THEY DEEM NECESSARY. ALONG WITH THE HEAT...HUMIDITY WILL INCREASE FROM RECENT DAYS...AND THE COMBINATION OF THE TWO COULD CREATE HEAT INDICES AT OR CLOSE TO HEAT ADVISORY CRITERIA. WILL MENTION THE HEAT IN THE RWS...BUT HOLD OFF ON INCLUDING IN THE HWO FOR NOW UNTIL EVENT IS CLOSER AND CONFIDENCE INCREASES. WEATHER BECOMES A BIT UNCERTAIN TOWARDS THE WEEKEND...CONCERNING THE APPROACH OF A COLD FRONT...AND DEBBY. COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTH TOWARDS THE REGION FRIDAY OR SATURDAY...AND POSSIBLY STALL OUT ACROSS THE REGION. SEVERAL DISTURBANCES RIDING ALONG THE FRONT WILL KEEP THE WEATHER UNSETTLED. LOTS OF UNCERTAINTY CONCERNING THE TRACK OF DEBBY. RECENT RUN OF THE ECMWF SHOWS DEBBY SLOWING TREKKING WESTWARD...BEFORE PUSHING OFF TOWARDS THE EAST COAST LATE IN THE WEEK/EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THIS POINT...CONSIDERING THE TWO FACTORS...DID ELECT TO GO WITH CHANCE POPS FOR THE WEEKEND FORECAST. IT IS POSSIBLE...MUCH OF THE MOISTURE FROM DEBBY WILL MISS THE CWA ALTOGETHER. && .AVIATION /12Z MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... COLD FRONT SLIPS THRU THIS MORNING WITH SCT TO BKN 6 TO 9 THSD FOOT DECK. ISO SHRA WITH SFC FRONT AND LAGGING H85 FRONT BUT ELECTED TO KEEP OUT OF TAFS ATTM. WIND DIRECTION SWITCHES TO NORTH SFC AND ALOFT ON GOOD CAA. SOME MIXING IN AFTN TO PRODUCES GUSTS NEAR 20KTS. VFR CONDITIONS TONIGHT WITH DRY AIR AND BL PUFF PREVENTING MUCH IN WAY OF FG SAVE KEKN WHERE SOME IFR FG POSSIBLE LATE. FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z TUESDAY... FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH. ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: KEKN MAY EXPERIENCE LESS FG. EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION: H = HIGH: TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS. L = LOW: TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL. UTC 1HRLY 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 EDT 1HRLY 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 CRW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H HTS CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H BKW CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H EKN CONSISTENCY L H H H H H H H H H H H PKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H CKB CONSISTENCY H H H H H H H H H H H H AFTER 12Z TUESDAY... NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME. && .RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... WV...NONE. OH...NONE. KY...NONE. VA...NONE. && $$ SYNOPSIS...RPY/30 NEAR TERM...30 SHORT TERM...RPY LONG TERM...SL AVIATION...30