492 FXUS65 KGGW 251034 AFDGGW AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT 434 AM MDT MON JUN 25 2012 .SHORT TERM...FOR NORTHEAST MONTANA...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY... STRONG UPPER RIDGE WITH ACCOMPANYING VERY WARM AIR ALOFT OVER E MT. THIS WILL BRING THE HOTTEST WEATHER SO FAR THIS YEAR TODAY AND TUE. A CANADIAN SURFACE HIGH CENTER OVER S MB BROUGHT COOLER AIR IN LOWER LEVELS FOR OUR AREA THOUGH...A VERY STRONG TEMP GRADIENT WITH YESTERDAY HIGHS FROM AROUND 70 NE TO NEARLY 100 SW. THIS WILL LESSEN TODAY...RESULTING IN THE HOT WEATHER EXPANDING ACROSS MUCH OF THE CWA AS THE SURFACE HIGH MOVES E. MEANWHILE DEW POINTS IN THE 50S AND LOWER 60S WILL CLIMB TO WIDESPREAD 60S THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. SEVERE THUNDERSTORM POTENT IAL DEVELOPS LATER TODAY AS THE UNFAVORABLE INVERSION ENDS...RESULTING IN A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. FORECAST MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW LIFTED INDEXES AT LOW AS -13 IN OUR E AND CAPES TO 6600 J/KG TONIGHT. THIS IS AS UNSTABLE AS IT EVER GETS FOR NE MT. 0-6KM WIND SHEAR BORDERLINE THOUGH. PRECIP WATER AS HIGH AS 1.6 INCHES. SUBTROPICAL CONNECTION OF MOISTURE ALOFT MOVING IN ALSO. IT WON'T TAKE MUCH TO GENERATE A FEW SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. MOST MODELS DO SHOW A WEAK SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS OUR AREA LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SO WHILE NOT EXPECTING MORE THAN ISOLATED...THE FEW STORMS THAT DO FORM LIKELY TO BE SEVERE. TUESDAY...THE LOWER LEVEL HUMID AIR GETS SWEPT OUT OF THE AREA AND A MUCH DRIER AIRMASS ARRIVES ALOFT FROM THE SW AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT. THIS REDUCES THE AMOUNT OF ANY THUNDERSTORMS VERY QUICKLY BY THE TIME THE COLD FRONT ARRIVES FROM THE WEST LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING. THIS FRONT IS PART OF THE CLOSED LOW OFF PACIFIC NW COAST THAT TIGHTENS AND INTENSIFIES AS IT KICKS NE INTO SK...MAIN UPPER SUPPORT TO OUR N. IT WILL BRING WINDY AND COOLER WEATHER TUE NIGHT AND WED. MODELS SHOWING UP TO 50 KT WIND AT 850 MB AT TIME OF FRONTAL PASSAGE AND BEHIND IT WHICH SHOULD MIX TO SURFACE IN STRONG COLD ADVECTION PATTERN. THUS EVEN AT NIGHT...VERY WINDY. SIMONSEN .LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY... THE EXTENDED BEGINS WITH THE COOLEST DAY OF THE PERIOD AS A UPPER LOW EXITS INTO HUDSON BAY AND UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST COAST. THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT RIDGING WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NORTHERN CONUS PRAIRIES AND THE SOUTHERN CANADIAN PRAIRIES. THIS WILL KEEP IT DRY WITH NEAR NORMAL TEMPERATURES. SUNDAY THROUGH DAY 8 MONDAY...THE MODELS ARE STILL DISAGREEING ON THE METEOROLOGICAL FEATURES OVER NORTH AMERICA. WILL PLACE VERY LOW POPS AND WARM TEMPERATURES FOR NOW. PROTON && .AVIATION... VFR. EAST TO SOUTHEAST WINDS WILL CONTINUE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH THE PERIOD. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE THE HIGHEST THROUGH 00Z...THEN FALL OFF TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS OVERNIGHT. A THREAT...HOWEVER SMALL...REMAINS FOR EXTREMELY ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE REGION. ANY STORMS THAT DO DEVELOP WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL OF GUSTY ERRATIC WINDS... HAIL... AND DOWNPOURS WHICH WILL BRIEFLY CREATE IFR CONDITIONS. PROTON && .GLASGOW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... LAKE WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 10 AM MDT THIS MORNING FOR FORT PECK LAKE. && $$ WEATHER.GOV/GLASGOW